It is hard to believe it is February, and we are about two weeks away from Spring Training! The Royals have had a fun offseason and will have a newly revamped roster for the 2024 season. Most of the rotation is locked, with newcomers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha joining Cole Ragans and Brady Singer. You can of course pencil in Bobby Witt, Jr. at shortstop and Salvador Perez at catcher. Maikel Garcia seems guaranteed to start at third base unless he goes into a crazy slump this spring after his incredible offseason in the Dominican Winter League. A healthy Vinnie Pasquantino should be manning first base unless Nick Pratto comes out of nowhere with the bat, but he’s yet to show much at the big-league level.
The outfield starters seem a bit clearer with the signing of Hunter Renfroe, who should be the starting right fielder. Kyle Isbel is probably the most likely to start in center field, and MJ Melendez will likely be manning left field. When you look at designated hitter, expect to see Nelson Velazquez getting the most at-bats there. This all could change depending on what happens this spring, so let’s dive into some potential battles that could occur!
The Number 5 Starter
Most Likely: Jordan Lyles
I am sure Royals fans hate to see that Lyles is the most likely candidate to round out the Royals’ rotation in 2024. Rumors have been swirling that they’ve been trying to trade him all offseason but it doesn’t seem like they are getting anyone to bite. It’s not hard to see why they can’t find a taker. Lyles went 6-17 and posted a 6.28 ERA while ranking in the 9th percentile in Whiff%, 8th percentile in K%, and 18th percentile in Barrel%. There wasn’t much going Lyles’s way last year, and the Royals owe him $7.5 million this year. The price tag on top of those numbers is likely why the Royals can’t find a new home for him. My guess is that they let Lyles get a shot at the rotation to see if he can recoup any trade value for them.
The Strongest Contender: Daniel Lynch IV
This is the guy every Royals fan wants to see taking the ball in the rotation’s fifth spot. Lynch IV saw his strikeout numbers go down last year, but overall, he was making some progress on the mound until he was injured. He has been on the comeback train this offseason, putting on a good showing in one start in the Arizona Fall League, followed by a few starts in the Dominican Winter League. He is a guy who Royals fans and the Royals have been waiting on for years to break out. The potential is still there, and he could force Lyles to the bullpen if he can bring his A-game this spring.
The Darkhorse: Alec Marsh
Marsh received some starts for the Royals last year, and it was kind of a mixed bag. He looked very good in short stints, making you wonder if he can be useful for this team as a multi-inning reliever. It’s almost like a right-handed Andrew Miller type. Marsh has always had the starter stuff to dream of, but the command and control have lacked behind-the-quality stuff. Marsh could be a long shot to make the rotation with a hot spring, but it is really hard to see him cracking it. He’s got two options left, and if Lynch is in the bullpen as a multi-inning guy, Marsh could be starting the year in Omaha.
Others to Note: Angel Zerpa, Anthony Veneziano
Two lefties who have been interesting to watch. Zerpa threw mostly out of a relief role for the Royals but earned a couple of starts in September and looked good in them. Zerpa continued in the Arizona Fall League after the season started to get more innings and pitched okay. He really pitched well in the AFL’s championship game. Zerpa has always been more of a floor-than-ceiling prospect. He’s got a very good command of his pitch mix that’s highlighted by his sinker, but none of his pitches are what you’d consider plus. He’s only got one option left so he could sneak into the bullpen if he doesn’t make his way into the rotation. Veneziano is an arm that seemed to benefit the most from the “RAID THE ZONE” mentality. A guy who usually struggled with command ended last year in the minors with a 10-5 record and 3.55 ERA across AA and AAA, and a 1.05 BB/9 in AA, although that spiked to 4.32 in AAA. He’s got three options, so he likely starts in Omaha, but he is definitely one to watch this spring.
THE BULLPEN
Most Likely Locks: James McArthur, Will Smith, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, John McMillon, Carlos Hernandez, Steven Cruz, Matt Sauer, Daniel Lynch IV
These names are the most likely to crack the bullpen as of today. I included Daniel Lynch IV, assuming he doesn’t make the rotation. The Royals brought in Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson to lengthen their bullpen and take some of the pressure off the younger guys in McArthur and McMillon. Will Smith likely starts the year as the closer, but it will be hard to ignore McArthur and McMillon as too potential young guns who could come for his sport early on, especially with McArthur showing tons of success as we get closer to the end of 2023. Cruz and Sauer are the two most likely to lose a spot. Cruz has three options, so a bad spring could have him starting in Omaha. If Sauer doesn’t perform, there is a chance the Royals could return him to the Yankees, but that might be a bit unlikely as they seem interested in getting him innings in the big leagues.
The Strongest Contender: Will Klein
The 2023 Futures Game representative probably has some of the nastiest stuff out of any of the pitchers in the minor leagues. He’s absolutely electric to watch when he is on. He’s struggled a bit with command and control of his pitches, but his double-plus fastball that sits 95-97 and can top out in the 100s is a fun pitch. He’s also got a nasty 12-6 curveball to go with it, and if he hones in some of that command, he could be a real late-inning threat. He might be the strongest contender to take a bullpen spot with a really good spring, but due to his age and options, they may want to see a step forward with his command and control first.
The Darkhorses: Dan Altavilla, Tyler Duffey, Luis Cessa, Sam Long
All these relievers the Royals brought in on minor-league deals have major-league experience. We looked at potential non-roster invitees who could crack the Royals roster out of spring, and all of these relievers were mentioned. Altavilla is still working his way back from injury, so he likely starts in Omaha but probably has the highest upside stuff-wise. Luis Cessa and Tyler Duffey have the longest track record of success in the big leagues, so they could fight their way onto the 26-man roster with a hot spring. Cessa has a career 4.43 era over 425 innings in eight years, and Duffey has a 4.57 ERA over 477 innings in 9 years. They could easily push a guy like Cruz, who has options, to the minor leagues. Sam Long seems like the least likely darkhorse, but he does have a fun curveball, and we should keep our eyes on the lefty.
Others to Note: Jake Brentz, Josh Taylor
Here you have two left-handers who have had some success at the big league level but have been battling injuries throughout the last couple of seasons. Brentz came onto the scene in 2021 with electric stuff but hasn’t been the same since. A lot of that is due to injuries. Josh Taylor was acquired from the Red Sox in the trade that sent Adalberto Mondesi to Boston. He’s been battling back from multiple injuries and struggled last year. Both have options left and are likely to serve as depth in Omaha so they can continue to build back up.
SECOND BASE
Most Likely: Michael Massey
As soon as the Royals traded for Adam Frazier, the rumors fans were pushing was that they thought Massey was out the door. Instead, the Royals traded Samad Taylor to clear a spot for Frazier. Massey still seems likely to start at second base for the Royals in 2024, given how good his glove is and how mediocre Frazier’s is. But Massey struggled to find his way with the bat last year. He ended the season well, but a really slow spring or slow start to the season could have Massey losing ABs to the likes of Frazier. Do remember that Massey still has three options left as well…
The Strongest Contender: Adam Frazier
Frazier played 141 games for the AL East Champion Baltimore Orioles last year. He struggled defensively but put up okay numbers at the plate. He played mostly second base last year but can play all over the infield and fill in in the outfield if needed. He is very much the candidate who could take the starting job at Massey during spring training. The Royals did back their confidence in Massey to be this team’s second baseman and that Frazier is here to play more of a utility role. It’s never bad to have a safety net if the young Massey does struggle to begin the year as he did last year.
The Darkhorse: Nick Loftin
Loftin has been one of the team’s top prospects for years now. With the signings of Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson, you kind of wonder where Loftin fits outside of a starting job in Omaha. The 25-year-old performed well in his small 19-game sample size in the MLB last year slashing .325/.368/.436 with five doubles, 10 RBI, and two stolen bases. Again, there is only a sample size of 68 plate appearances, but at the very least, it is good to see him find success at the big-league level. Loftin has always been a sum-of-all-parts type of player. He just does everything well. He may not have the loudest tools, but he’s got a solid hit tool, decent power, good field ability at multiple positions, and decent speed. If he doesn’t force his way to the starting second base role, he could find himself playing as a utility guy, but I imagine the Royals will want to give him every day at-bats, even if it means they are in Omaha.
Others to Note: Garrett Hampson
With all the depth in front of Hampson, it seems very highly unlikely that he will take over the second base role in the spring, but we have to give him at least a shoutout. Hampson is more of a utility guy and should serve that role for the Royals, as he can play all over the infield and outfield. He will likely just fill more as a plug-and-play guy given the bat hasn’t done well enough to stick as a starter.
CENTERFIELD
Most Likely: Kyle Isbel
Isbel took steps last year to solidify himself as the Royals starting centerfielder. Kevin O’Brien covered how Isbel is ready to break out in 2024. Defensively, Isbel looked more than up to taking on centerfield at The K. He was in the 96th percentile in outs above average (OAA) in 2023 and made spectacular plays. He struggled with consistency at the plate but did show a good ability not to whiff or strikeout while putting up decent exit velos. He’s going to have to find a way to get the ball off the ground a bit more if he wants to be the everyday guy. 2024 will be a big year for Isbel, and the hope is that he can finally solidify himself into an everyday major league who resembles a Kevin Kiermaier or Michael A. Taylor.
The Strongest Contender: Drew Waters
There has been all kinds of hype around Drew Waters as a prospect that dates back to his Braves days. He has had the tools scouts dream on. It led him to being drafted in the 2nd round by the Braves in 2017. But the hit tool has never come around and it was more of that story in 2022. Waters had a 31.8% strikeout rate and a 32.4% Whiff rate. Not what you want to see. He had insanely good defensive metrics though which could have him pushing Isbel for the starting job if he can bring his bat around. He was in the 88th percentile in OAA, 82nd percentile in arm value, and 93rd percentile in arm strength. Waters is going to have to do a lot with the bat to earn some playing time, but it isn’t like Isbel’s starting job is fully locked in. Expect this to be one of the biggest battles this spring.
The Darkhorse: Dairon Blanco
We have to give Dairon Blanco some love. All this guy does is hit decently and run while getting no love because of his age. The man stole 24 bags in 69 games! 24 bags! On top of that, he had 47 steals in 49 games in Omaha. The man is freaky fast. He kept up his hot streak this winter by slashing .286/.339/.692 with 18 stolen bases in 27 games. He lacks in the power department, which is his biggest downfall, and the hit tool is decent but not great. Blanco still could be a dark horse to start in center, but it seems highly unlikely. I more wanted to give him love because I think he’s undervalued for what he brings to this team. He is almost like another Jarrod Dyson type. I imagine he easily makes the roster regardless, as Matt Quatraro seemed to love to utilize his speed last year.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Most Likely: Nelson Velazquez
Nelly Nukes, as Jack Johnson calls him, really broke out for the Royals after they acquired him from the Chicago Cubs for reliever Jose Cuas. In the very early stages, this trade is looking like a steal. He didn’t qualify for rankings in Baseball Savant due to a lack of plate appearances, but in the small sample size, he was near the tops in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage. When he makes contact, it is LOUD. The key word there is “when’. Velazquez does struggle with swing-and-miss and chases a lot out of the zone. He doesn’t walk much to offset that, either. But the underlying metrics make you believe he could easily follow in the footsteps of another former Royal, Jorge Soler. As of today, Velazquez seems like a lock to be the DH, but a few other scenarios that we’ve discussed could have him pushed from that role.
The Strong Contender: Vinnie Pasquantino
You’re probably wondering, “What the hell is Vinnie P doing here?!” There is a long-shot scenario where Nick Pratto comes out guns blazing this spring and earns himself the first base gig, pushing Vinnie to DH. Pratto didn’t show much in the major leagues and still struggles to pick up spin, which leads to a lot of swing-and-miss issues despite his good plate discipline. The Royals love how good Pratto’s glove is at first base. It has gold glove potential. If he figures something out this offseason and performs this spring, maybe there is a slight chance he will force Vinnie to DH. Pratto figuring out the bat wouldn’t be a bad thing at all for the Royals.
The Darkhorse: Tyler Gentry
Does Preston Farr’s guy do it?! Does he have the biggest spring of all time and earn his way onto the 26-man-roster where he’s either playing left field or forcing MJ Melendez to DH? A lot would have to happen for this to come true, but Gentry is a guy Royals fans can be excited about in the future. He’s put decent numbers at the plate at every level and plays a pretty good left field. He could hit well enough this spring, and if Velazquez struggles, he could find his way into the designated hitter role. This is a long shot, given that Gentry struggled a tad in Omaha and has three options left. It’s fun to dream about, though.