The MLB Draft season continues to slowly heat up. We’re not quite to May yet, meaning that plenty could still change between today and this summer’s draft. This year’s draft will take place on July 14 through July 16 in Fort Worth, Texas. The class is headlined at the top by a duo of elite college bats: Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon. Neither figures to be available when the Royals are on the clock. Kansas City has the sixth overall pick this year after the draft lottery once again gave the team the short end of the stick. Even at sixth overall, the options will be great for the Royals.
In this mock draft, we’re running through the first five rounds using the Prospects Live 2024 Mock Draft simulator. That simulator should be out and available for the public sometime soon. Here are the picks:
Round 1, Pick 6 (6 Overall): 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest
In this simulation, the board fell fairly chalk. Bazzana and Condon were gone, of course. As were the top prep prospects in Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer. That left both of the top arms still on the board with the sixth overall pick. Despite how good Hagen Smith and Chase Burns have been, with so many excellent hitters on the board early, I don’t expect that the Royals would take a pitcher. Top hitters on the board included Kurtz, Jac Caglianone, and Seaver King. I think there’s nearly no scenario that Kansas City would pass on Kurtz if he’s there at six.
A shoulder injury disrupted the start of the year for Kurtz, but since returning he’s gotten back to his old ways. Kurtz is arguably the best overall hitter in this year’s draft class. He offers an excellent mix of batted-ball ability and power potential. So far in 2024, Kurtz has appeared in 37 games for Wake Forest. He’s slashed .307/.500/.811. With 47 walks and just 26 strikeouts, the excellent approach is clear. Kurtz doesn’t swing-and-miss often, and when he makes contact it’s hard contact at an extreme rate. What’s the downside? Well, defensively Kurtz is a true first baseman. He isn’t going to play outfield, and it’s not usually great process to take a first baseman so early in the draft.
Despite the concerns about positional value, it’s more than worth it here for Kurtz. You never draft for need in the MLB Draft, so Vinnie Pasquantino currently holding first base isn’t worth considering. Kurtz should be a quick mover to the big leagues and could be in Kansas City by late 2025 or early 2026.
Round CB-A, Pick 6 (39 Overall): RHP Joey Oakie, Ankeny Centennial (IA)
Joey Oakie, out of Iowa, has a solid 6-2 frame and pitches from the right side. He repeats his delivery extremely well and generates good spin and velocity. He uses a long arm action and a three-quarter arm slot. Oakie pronates well, generating as high as 3,000 rpm with his sweeper. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but there’s plenty of projection remaining that he could certainly be up to 97-98 by the start of the 2025 minor league season.
Getting Oakie here at 39 would likely require a small over-slot signing bonus. The Royals did similar with RHP Blake Wolters in last year’s second round. The fastball and slider both have at least 60-grade potential, and Oakie works in a changeup sparingly. It’s somewhat of a similar profile to Wolters in last year’s draft and should he be there at 39, I think the Royals would have him pretty high — if not at the top — on their board.
Round 2, Pick 2 (41 Overall): OF Will Taylor, Clemson
Taylor has an impressive, level swing that lifts the ball well. He makes plenty of hard contact and has the speed to stick in center field long-term. He was impressive in 2023 for Clemson. Over 62 games, he slashed .362/.489/.523 with 48 walks against 56 strikeouts. He was one of the more consistent hitters in the college ranks. That came after an ACL injury in 2021 that sidelined him for nearly the entire 2022 baseball season. A stint in the Cape Cod League last summer wasn’t as impressive, but Taylor has all the tools to succeed as a pro.
Taylor was a two-way athlete, playing quarterback and wide receiver for the Tigers as well. Results have dipped some this season, but the contact ability and batted ball metrics are still strong and point to some positive regression on the way. He’s slashed .230/.465/.480 so far this season over 32 games.
Round 3, Pick 2 (76 Overall): LHP Cole Gibler, Blue Springs (MO)
I may be dreaming a bit here in thinking the Royals can afford two talented prep arms this early in the draft. The financials would be something to work out, but let’s put that aside for a moment. Gibler is a local product out of Blue Springs, Missouri. He has simple, smooth mechanics from the left side of the mound. His arm action is on the short side, usually reaching around 90 degrees of extension. He’s improved his fastball velocity this season, getting into the upper 90s but more often sits 93-95mph. The heater has good life up in the zone and deceptive movement that keeps hitters off balance.
He pairs the fastball with a solid changeup and a slider. The slider is more of a gyro slider with vertical movement, but plenty of potential. It’s a raw profile overall, but that’s to be expected from a prep arm. Gibler has mid-rotation upside, and pairing him with Oakie would be a fantastic grab here for the Royals.
Round 4, Pick 2 (105 Overall): LHP Jared Spencer, Indiana State
This mock got pitching heavy pretty early, but that’s how the value on the board fell this time around. Spencer here should provide the Royals with some slot savings. He has a 6-3 frame and throws straight gas from the left side. This season for Indiana, he’s struck out 47 hitters over 34.0 innings pitched. Command is an issue, as evidenced by his 5.1 BB/9 thus far in his college career. The stuff is the main draw here. Spencer touches the upper-90s with his fastball and his slider is a potential plus offering.
He isn’t ranked among MLB Pipeline’s top draft prospects this summer, but the stuff plays. He’d be a project but not too different from Eric Cerantola, if he can find command the upside is there to be found.
Round 5, Pick 2 (138 Overall): 3B Payton Green, Georgia Tech
Payton Green is a shortstop entering this year’s draft, but he profiles best as a future third baseman in the pro ranks. The Red Sox selected him in the 15th round of the 2021 draft, but he didn’t sign and instead chose to head to North Carolina State. Green played two seasons for the Wolfpack but really started to shine so far this season after a transfer to Georgia Tech. Over 42 games thus far, he’s slashed .327/.427/.614 with 9 home runs. His strikeout rate has been an impressive 13.6%.
The power potential here is impressive, especially here in the fifth round. In Green, the Royals are getting another impressive power prospect at the hot corner to pair with Austin Charles and Trevor Werner. That trio, along with Cayden Wallace, would make up a pretty solid third base tree down on the farm.
