Image Credit: James Escarcega, Pasadena Star-News
Ten days ago I conducted a second 2024 Mock Draft for the Kansas City Royals. Since that time, there’s been about as much movement in the consensus draft boards as you’d expect. Outfielder James Tibbs III is moving his way up some boards out there. He now looks more like a top 10 pick than the fringe top 15 guy he was earlier this spring. There’s also been talk that the Guardians may pass on Charlie Condon in favor of others, such as Travis Bazzana or Nick Kurtz. Condon now has 35 home runs this season. While anything is possible, I wonder if that talk is just Cleveland leveraging the options to slide into better slot value negotiations.
With all the more recent developments, I give you the third Royals Mock Draft of the season. First up is a player that Kansas City has been linked to. I’ve heard from some that the front office really likes him at pick six, but it would of course depend on other available options.
Round 1, Pick 6 (6 Overall): SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake (CA)
Rainer has simple, smooth swing mechanics from the left side of the plate. He lifts the ball well, and his overall profile reminds me quite a bit of Braden Montgomery, who should go ahead of Rainer in this year’s draft. Rainer has a chance to stick at shortstop, however, and provide above-average or even plus power at the plate. He has a plus-plus arm that would play well on the left side of the infield. He’s 6-3, 195 pounds, offering slightly more projection as he continues developing. If the power comes along as expected, he could shift to third base where he’d profile as a 25-30 home run hitter with plus defensive upside. Concerns for Rainer revolve around his hit-tool. If he can handle spin at the next level and reduce swing-and-miss in his swing, he’s got the upside of a perennial All-Star at least.
Round CB-A, Pick 6 (39 Overall): LHP Kash Mayfield, Elk City (OK)
Mayfield is a lefty with size and electric upside on the mound. He has a whippy delivery that generates excellent arm speed. Mayfield sits in the 93-95mph range, but there’s the upside for even more velocity as he develops. He pairs that fastball with an above-average slider and a changeup that remains a work in progress. His command should be good for a prep arm, and profiles as at least average long-term. Although he’s one of the best prep arms in the class, he’s a year older than most prep prospects which could impact signability. If the Royals can find the slot room, going over slot at 39 could keep Mayfield from his commitment to Oklahoma State.
Round 2, Pick 2 (41 Overall): 2B Christian Moore, Tennessee
Moore has good power from the right side, but there are questions about whether he can catch up to velocity at the next level. This season, he’s been fantastic. Over 58 games for the Volunteers, he’s slashed .381/.449/.784 with 27 home runs. The strike-out rate has been healthy around 14.7% and he walks enough. He’s a true second baseman long-term and doesn’t figure to have the arm talent to play on the left side of the infield or to fare well in the outfield. His approach at the plate is aggressive, which works well at times. He has excellent bat speed with a level swing that can hit the ball out to all fields. Long-term, he profiles as a defensively average second baseman with the potential for 20+ home runs if it all comes together at the pro level.
Round 3, Pick 2 (76 Overall): OF Casey Saucke, Virginia
Saucke is a sound hitter at the plate with strikeout concerns but has the line-drive ability when he makes contact. Thus far in 2024 — his third season at Virginia — he’s slashed .354/.412/.598 with 17 doubles and 13 home runs. He’s struck out 47 times this season (17.8%) which doesn’t seem too bad on the surface, but he would benefit from a more aggressive approach at the plate. In what I’ve seen, he has a tendency to be too passive at times. He uses all fields nicely, and the power has the potential for more, although his ceiling seems more of a 20 HR/ 20 2B type hitter than a true middle-of-the-order slugger. Defensively, he’s sound in the corners with an average arm.
Round 4, Pick 2 (105 Overall): LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M
Prager has an overhand delivery with a projectable fastball. He sits in the low 90s but can touch the mid-90s in short stints. The fastball traits are a draw more than anything but rely somewhat on a future projection of more velocity. He pairs that with a 50-grade slider and a changeup that has solid arm-side movement. In 2024, Prager has started 15 games for the Aggies, pitching to a 2.51 ERA across 79.0 IP. He’s struck out 106 batters in that span, against just 15 walks.
On the surface, those numbers give the idea of outstanding command, but it’s still a work in progress. Prager often comes out of the gate strong but loses some of his stuff later into contests and will get hit around more in the pro ranks. He has the build of a starter, but profiles best as a reliever at the next level, but the stuff from the left side could make him a very good one.
Round 5, Pick 2 (138 Overall): 1B Myles Bailey, Lincoln (FL)
Bailey has a wide stance at the plate, with his hands up and back behind his back shoulder. The stance and mechanics could use some tweaks, but with some work, he could be an above-average slugger as a pro. For value, he’ll need it. He’s a third-baseman or first-baseman by trade but would be a below-average defender from the left side. Although there’s prodigious raw power, it’s currently held back too much by the swing. A full overhaul isn’t needed — especially since the bat speed and bat plane are very, very good — but as his stance and mechanics currently sit, there’s going to be too much swing-and-miss and weak contact as a pro to overcome. Tweaks to his stance and shortening his path to the ball could unlock serious upside at the plate.