Now that the Royals roster for next season has come more into focus, it’s possible to start projecting some stat lines for next year’s crop of players. It’s still only mid-December so the roster is far from settled. There are still plenty of moves on the way before we even reach Spring Training. Once Spring Training rolls around the roster will see even more shakeup as some non-roster invitees and minor leaguers hopefully make some claim to roster spots.
The first look at projections involves the starting rotation. The Royals have been busy acquiring pitching this offseason. That’s clear by looking at the difference in the starting rotation. Last season the team started the season with a starting five of Brady Singer, Jordan Lyles, Zach Greinke, Brad Keller, and Kris Bubic. As it stands now, the rotation next season should include Singer, Lyles, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Cole Ragans. Daniel Lynch IV could factor in as well, but the fifth starter role will likely be between him, Lyles, and whoever else shows up big in Spring Training.
Here’s a look at stat projections for those six starters next season:
1. Michael Wacha
Projection: 122.2 IP, 22 GS, 3.43 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 113 SO, 38 BB
Wacha looks like the “ace” of the staff entering next season. He projects to have the best ERA of the bunch, although he projects to have the third-best FIP. It’s difficult to expect a large innings workload from Wacha, who has only reached 30 starts in a season once in his career. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged a steady 16.7 outs per start. That’s right around 5.1IP per outing. Over the second half of last season, Wacha saw an uptick in both his K% and BB%. He also allowed more contact than his stellar first-half performance.
Health is going to be a factor, but for whatever innings Wacha can give the Royals, it seems a pretty safe bet that they will be consistent and solid.
2. Seth Lugo
Projection: 151.2 IP, 27 GS, 3.77 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 151 SO, 38 BB
I called Wacha the “ace” of the staff, but based on these projections Lugo looks like the true number one. There’s a smaller track record as a starter than Wacha has, but health has been less of a factor over Lugo’s career. If Lugo can hold up over the full season as I expect, the results should be well worth the $15 million he will earn in 2024. There’s a slight uptick in walks compared to last season, but with it comes more strikeouts and more innings. Over the second half of 2023, Lugo had a 24% K%. That mark was nearly 2% more than his first-half mark.
I have small concerns about his home run totals. Lugo gave up a lot of hard contact last season. Over the second half his home run total doubled compared to the first half of the season. Transitioning to Kauffman Stadium should help him limit some of that uptick but it’s still worth noting.
3. Cole Ragans
Projection: 116.0 IP, 26 GS, 4.39 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 123 SO, 50 BB
There will probably be plenty of backlash at this projection, but I’ll give you the numbers behind it so give it a chance. First and foremost, Ragans has twice undergone Tommy John Surgery so the Royals will do what is needed to protect his arm. Last season he logged just under 100 innings but many of those came in short relief outings for Texas. As a starter, he averaged nearly 18 outs per start, but that mark was much lower in 2022. Granted, Ragans wasn’t nearly the same pitcher in 2023.
The walks aren’t highly concerning but are worth noting at least. This projection’s 3.93 FIP isn’t too far off of last year’s xFIP of 3.71. In his first “full” season as a starter, I expect Ragans to see a bit more adversity but he’s the type of talent that can adjust as the league picks up on his tendencies.
4. Brady Singer
Projection: 166.2 IP, 30 GS, 5.15 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 148 SO, 47 BB
Whoever the real Brady Singer is, I honestly don’t believe it’s the pitcher we saw in the back half of 2022. With that said, he can still be better than we saw last season and can still be a valuable piece in the back end of a Major League rotation. The second half of last season (compared to the first half) saw Singer improve his K%, greatly improve his BB%, and allow a tad fewer hits per outing. What got worse were his home run totals. He allowed 10 home runs pre-All-Star break and he allowed the same after the break. Unfortunately, he also pitched 30 fewer innings after the break.
Singer will do enough to maintain a rotation spot, but the Royals should probably look to upgrade his slot by 2025 if they hope to truly contend for the division.
5. Jordan Lyles
Projection: 172.0 IP, 30 GS, 6.12 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 122 SO, 45 BB
This projection has Lyles making 30 starts next season. A disclaimer for that total: I don’t believe he will get the chance. For clarity’s sake, it felt better to project full season totals versus trying to divide up formulas over smaller samples. Once Kris Bubic returns (at least), Lyles probably finds his way to the bullpen — or the waiver wire. There’s also a chance that Daniel Lynch IV knocks him out of the rotation before Opening Day even arrives.
The stuff just isn’t good, and Lyles is spent in the league. He gives up far too much hard contact, way too many home runs, and doesn’t miss enough bats. The second half of last season wasn’t much better than the first half. His walk rate improved quite a bit, but nothing else did.
6. Daniel Lynch IV
Projection: 139.2 IP, 24 GS, 5.11 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 100 SO, 46 BB
Compared to Lyles, Lynch projects much better aside from the lack of reliable innings. He’s shown promise at numerous short stints in his career thus far, but consistency and health have escaped him. If Lynch could stay healthy and find consistently good results, it would be a great development for the Royals. I simply am not confident that you can rely on that. Like Lyles, this projection is based on Lynch earning a starting rotation spot for the entire year.
Both Lynch and Lyles aren’t likely to have a rotation spot all year, but it’s a nice comparison of the two early on in what looks to be a future Spring Training competition.
