Following the 2023 season, there were some questions surrounding what the future might hold for Noah Cameron. He started last season strongly in Quad Cities. At the time, he looked like one of the system’s best pitching prospects. Following a mid-season promotion, however, things started to shift some for Cameron. He made 17 appearances for Northwest Arkansas, pitching to a less impressive 5.41 FIP. At the same time, Cameron’s strikeout rate dipped to 22.8% — by far a career low to that point. After showcasing impressive command and great strikeout stuff for most of the season, it looked as if Cameron was hitting a wall.
His 2024 season kicked off once again in Northwest Arkansas, this time with more impressive results. Now, nearly to the end of the 2024 season, Cameron has again firmly cemented himself as one of the team’s best pitching prospects. He landed at number 10 in our midseason top prospect rankings, and for good reason. After some offseason additions to his arsenal, Cameron looks to be in an excellent position to compete for a major league roster spot as early as Opening Day 2025.
Offseason additions to the arsenal have helped Cameron to reach new heights in 2024
To better understand how 2024 has gone for Cameron, it’s important first to understand how he got here. Following his up-and-down 2023 season, Cameron went into the offseason with work to do. He added a cutter to his repertoire. That was an effort to find more success against right-handed hitters. In 2023, righties slashed .291/.349/.514 against Cameron, and that limitation greatly impacted his performance at Double-A last season. Although it’s been mixed in as a true tertiary offering, it’s still had a strong impact this season and comes with some quality traits.
Cameron spins the cutter well. He averages 2300 rpm with the pitch, sitting 91-93 mph. He’s thrown it about as much as he’s thrown his outstanding changeup and does a great job mixing all four offerings to opposing hitters. The result has been far better results against right-handed hitters. In 2024, they’ve slashed .245/.304/.368 against Cameron. That’s a .146 improvement in slugging percentage allowed, and it’s massively impacted Cameron’s success on the mound.
At the same time, he’s improved his four-seam fastball as well. After undergoing Tommy John Surgery before the 2021 draft, it took some time for Cameron to work his way back to full strength. The Royals took their time with him in 2022, and gradually worked the inning workload upward in 2023. Now into 2024, he’s surpassed 100 innings for the second season in a row. He’s also been able to maintain velocity deeper into the season. On August 24, Cameron averaged 91.8 mph on his four-seamer, topping out at 94. By the end of 2023, reaching 94 was rare and more of a struggle for Cameron. He’s found ways to maintain his stuff deeper into the season and looks more than ready to take on an even larger workload in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2025, Cameron looks like a key factor in the Royals future pitching plans
The current starting rotation has no real place for Noah Cameron. Offseason additions pushed starter Daniel Lynch IV down a level to Omaha. Trade deadline additions then did the same for starter Alec Marsh. Those additions have greatly impacted the big league team’s success. They’ve also allowed the Royals to pool together some impressive rotation depth in Triple-A Omaha. Cameron, Chandler Champlain, and Tyson Guerrero have all made their way to Omaha at some point in 2024. It’s unclear what the future holds for Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. Perhaps the Royals could go back to the free agent well this offseason, but they have more in-house options to consider than they did a year ago. Among them is certainly Noah Cameron.
Courtesy of Thomas Nestico, you can take a closer look at Cameron’s arsenal above. His curveball and changeup are excellent pitches, generating excellent chase and whiff rates. To truly make it as a big league starter, it seems like Cameron could use another offseason tweak to his fastball arsenal. The cutter is an impressive weapon, grading out as one of his best offerings. It simply hasn’t generated elite whiff rates, but has excellent spin and generates great chase rates. The current iteration of Cameron’s four-seamer isn’t likely to find a ton of success, but it begs the question: if he added such a good cutter this past offseason, what’s stopping him from adding a sinker or leveling up the four-seamer? A sinker would work nicely with Cameron’s changeup, which is already an excellent offering.
Cameron has done a phenomenal job this season of firmly planting himself in the future plans for Kansas City. It’ll be in the starting rotation until it’s not, and another great offseason with further development in the arsenal could be the difference between another year in Omaha for Cameron and a lengthy shot to prove himself in the big leagues in 2025.
