Gavin Cross entered 2024 with something to prove. After a blazing start to his professional career, Cross stumbled throughout the 2023 season with a .203/.298/.378 slash. He hit just 12 home runs in 96 games last season after hitting eight in only 29 games in 2022. Highlighting these struggles were massive drop-offs in slugging and OBP. His slugging dropped 255 points from .633 to .378, signaling an enormous drop in power. Adding insult to injury, his on-base percentage fell from .437 to .298 due to over a 7% decrease in walk rate. Cross came into 2023 as the Royals’ top-ranked prospect. Due to his performance and the drafting of newer, more-hyped prospects, Cross has dropped to his current spot at 6.
In 2024, Cross has reinvented himself by increasing his bat-on-ball skills. In my preseason article titled Gavin Cross in the year 2024 A.D., I mentioned that Cross seemed to be increasing his swing rate to get a feel for what he could and couldn’t connect with. This season is an indication that he is narrowing in on what his bat can reach. He has increased his power output, a byproduct of his natural power ability, and he has shown flashes of his former top 100 prospect status. The overall numbers on the season do not jump off the page, however, Cross has quietly been one of the better hitters on the Naturals’ roster.
2024 Stat line: .261/.342/.428, 19 2B, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 45 BB, 105 K
Cross and the Horrible, No Good, Streaky Hitting.
Gavin Cross struggled to start the 2024 season. His OPS in April was a measly .633 and he owned a 31% strikeout rate. Needless to say, fans were pretty on edge to see him start this way after posting similar numbers in 2023. His hitting became a month-to-month saga with each month writing its own storyline. May was a ceiling-breaking showcase, with power and average on display. June became another struggle month with a seven-day IL stint. July showcased the average even without the rest of the tools working. Finally, August bottomed out the on-base tool while selling out for home run pop.
Needless to say, some streaks hurt his overall performance on the year. Slumping hard in both April and August, Cross was missing his barrel far too often. His strikeout numbers were worrying as well, with strikeout percentages above 30% in both months. An injury-shortened June saw an OPS above .700, although his strikeout rate remained at 32% and the power was lackluster. These three months saw Cross at his lowest this season: striking out in bunches and missing consistent contact at the plate.
Wait, The Streaks Were Good Too?
In July, Cross found the bat well but missed the barrel. He hit just one home run in the month but slashed .291/.364/.392. He struck out just 18.9% of the time and walked 11.3% of his plate appearances. Cross showed that his most useful skill can be as a baserunner by scoring nine times in just 20 games. The power was noticeably absent, yet he found ways to get on base both by walk and base hits. This was nothing compared to his performance in May, but it was an encouraging step towards fixing potential mistakes in his approach.
In May, Cross looked like the best prospect in the Royals system. He slashed .333/.412/.556 with 5 home runs, seven doubles, and 23 runs batted in. Cross looked the best he has in any month during his professional career. Cross’s 55-grade in-game power has shown its potential with consistent double production. The home runs have yet to carry into the whole season, but May looked to be the best combination of both. If May’s power numbers continued, he would be looking at 20 home run season and 28 doubles. On top of the production at the plate, Cross reminded us he can run the bases well too, with 13 stolen bases and getting caught just once. He looked like a legit top 100 prospect for just under 100 at-bats.
Why Were These Numbers So Inconsistent?
Without being able to find swing-and-miss data for Cross down at Double-A, I can still conclude that he is swinging far too often due to his walk percentage and strikeout percentages. Cross is walking at an identical clip to 2023 (10.3%) and seeing his strikeout rate drop from 27.8% in 2023 to 24.1% this year. In months where he is struggling to hit for average and striking out too much, it seems warranted to assume this is due to a high swing rate.
He consistently walks similarly to his season-long rates, such as his 12% walk rate in August. Cross’s walk numbers remained steady, his strikeout numbers fluctuated by up to 5% from month to month, and his averages never maintained. Just a reminder that he put up a fantastic 17.9% walk rate in his breakout 2022 campaign at low-A. His strikeouts look to be sitting at about the same rate from year to year. The only other explanation for his regular highs and lows would be fluctuation in his contact outcomes.
Looking more into his contact outcomes
Gavin Cross ran into some bad luck in 2023 with a BABIP of .262. Within the range of a consistent number but pretty low for a full season. In 2024, that number jumped to a far more easily maintainable number at .318. While often considered a “luck stat”, BABIP is affected by multiple different factors. One of the main factors we can look at is hit types such as ground balls, line drives, and fly balls. Line drives have the highest average BABIP, followed by ground balls and lastly, fly balls. Home runs do not count towards BABIP, resulting in an even lower average for balls hit in the air.
Cross’s measly 14.9% line drive rate was a big reason for his struggles in the 2023 season. This dip in line drive production produced an even higher ground ball and fly ball rate as a result. This season, that line drive number jumped back up to 25%. Limiting his ability to produce with his contact numbers resetting is his infield fly ball percentage. In his breakout 2022 campaign, Cross sat at just 11.5% of his fly balls landing in the infield. In 2023 this number jumped drastically to 27.7% and has maintained near there in 2024 at 26.2%. It is very rare for a player to hit a fly ball in the infield and see it drop for a hit. In fact, most leagues have a rule surrounding infield fly balls. This prevents fielders from taking advantage of how often it’s considered an out while still in the air.
To put it plainly, you hit the ball in the infield, it is never going to be a home run. Fly balls ending up staying in the infield will directly hurt home run to fly ball percentage. The best power hitter in the sport right now boasts a massive 32.5 % HR/FB. Gavin Cross does not have the level of power Aaron Judge does, but his respectable 14% home run per fly ball rate could develop significantly more if he can zero in on his average launch angle. Shedding the infield flies, turning his air contact into longer drives, and finding a way to keep his bat plane consistent could improve his overall number tremendously. Remember how I mentioned that home runs don’t count toward BABIP? At the very least, you’d see a pretty big jump in a number like BABIP, and therefore batting average.
What Can We Expect in 2025
We should all be looking for Cross to make his way to AAA in 2025. Even if he starts the year in Northwest Arkansas, this organization has a direct need for young outfielders, and he has a first-round pedigree. He seemed to take a step forward this year on the path to righting his struggles from 2023. If Cross can continue to work on his contact, 2025 could be a big year. If his progress from this season carries over with any future advancements in his swing, he could be on the doorstep of a big-league debut. There’s a lot of work needed to talk MLB at the moment, but there’s plenty of potential.
We can expect Cross to improve again this off-season. His season in 2024 was full of ups and downs but he still managed to have an above-average season for a Double-A player. His wRC+ was a healthy 115 and he posted a .770 OPS despite some struggles. Only time will tell if he can maintain his highs for longer stretches and reduce the streaky hitting that has plagued him thus far.
Image credit: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
