Preston Farr/Farm to Fountains’ Scouting Grades:
Fastball: 55/55
Changeup: 45/50
Slider: 45/50
Curveball 55/55
Command: 50/55
Background
Chandler Champlain is a native of California and went on to play his collegiate ball at the University of Southern California. After holding a career 5.31 ERA at USC, the New York Yankees drafted him in the 9th round of the 2021 MLB Draft. The Royals acquired Champlain in the trade that sent Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees in July 2022, also acquiring T.J. Sikkema and Beck Way in the process. He began his Royals career in High-A Quad Cities to close out 2022 and continued to pitch there to start the 2023 season.
Champlain breaks out in 2023
The 2023 season went about as well for Champlain as he could have hoped. After making 11 starts in Quad Cities where he posted a 2.74 ERA, he was promoted to Double-A Northwest Arkansas and continued to dominate. He made another 14 starts for the Naturals, posting a 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.56 K/BB, and held opponents to a .234 avg. He earned Pitcher of the Week honors for the Midwest League in May 2023 and earned the same award in July 2023 for the Naturals in the Texas League. He was also named the Naturals’ pitcher of the year. His performance had many Royals’ fans and writers predicting him to be a future part of the big-league rotation, even as early as the end of the 2024 season.
A hot start to 2024, struggles after promotion, and what to make of it
2024 season stats (AA): 36.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .203 OBA, 6.86 K/BB
2024 season stats (AAA): 104.1 IP, 5.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .283 OBA, 1.57 K/BB
Champlain carried his momentum from the 2023 season into 2024, where he once again dominated at the Double-A level. He made 7 starts with a 3.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and won Texas League Pitcher of the Week in mid-May. These impressive numbers earned him a promotion to Triple-A Omaha. After a couple solid starts to begin his time in Omaha, he began to struggle in ways he hadn’t yet in his professional career. He held career highs in BB/9 (3.97) and opponent on-base percentage (.360) and career lows in K/9 (6.21) and K/BB (1.57). The most surprising part was that he just came off holding career highs in K/9 and K/BB and a career-low in BB/9 in NW Arkansas. It’s hard to say whether the drastic shift was a result of a change in coaching, mechanics/pitch-mix, the level of competition, or perhaps a mixture of all three.
After hitting his lowest point in 2024 during July (9.64 ERA), his numbers improved steadily in August (4.76 ERA) and September (3.92 ERA), a sign that his adjustment to Triple-A may be headed in the right direction. He capped off his season with a solid start in the International League Championship Series, posting a line of 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, helping the Storm Chasers take Game 2 of the series.
What to expect in 2025
There are big decisions to be made regarding Champlain heading into the offseason as he is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. The Royals must decide whether to add him to their 40-man roster to ensure he is protected from being drafted by another team. Teams may hesitate to select Champlain given his performance in Omaha, but he has enough history of success that a team may be willing to give him a chance on their 26-man roster. I ultimately think he will stay in the Royals’ organization one way or another and will begin the 2025 season in Omaha. If his steady improvement over the past couple months continues into next season, I believe he will debut in Kansas City at some point next season.
Image credit: Mark Kuhlmann/Omaha Storm Chasers
