Felix Arronde is a young prospect who has quickly made a name for himself in the Royals’ farm system as a starter with plenty of upside. He was signed by the Royals as an 18-year-old out of Cuba in 2021 for $100,000 and pitched his first full season in the States this year with Low-A Columbia. Standing at 6’3″/185 lbs., Arronde has the frame of an MLB pitcher and will continue to build muscle and strength over time, making him that much more effective. He has a good delivery and looks like a natural pitcher who throws with slightly above-average velocity.

What pitches does he throw?

Arronde has a solid pitch-mix for a guy who is only 21 years old in Low-A. He mostly sticks with his two primary pitches: a low to mid-90s 4-seam fastball which pairs well with a wicked changeup that has a ton of movement and grades as his best pitch. The fastball is not elite and tends to lose some bite as he gets deeper into his starts, making it much more hittable. The changeup sits around 84 MPH and could be the best changeup in the entire farm system. He also offers a low-80s slider and a curveball which are project pitches he has worked into his mix to help keep hitters off balance.

Arronde, still being a young pitcher, is a promising prospect and has plenty of time to continue to develop these pitches. He already has above average command of his two primary pitches, especially for someone in his stage of development, and has the stuff to make it to the majors. The development will really come with durability and adding some power and consistency. We have seen Arronde consistently go 5-7 innings but clearly loses a little bit around 60 pitches which makes him more hittable. The organization will likely look to add a little more muscle to add some durability and will also work with him to get some more touch on the slider and curve to expand his repertoire as a starter.

What do the numbers say? How did he fare in 2024?

The numbers for Arronde have been very solid this year in Columbia, where he has proven to be a more than capable starter. Throughout this year in Columbia, he threw 110 innings (the most in his career by a factor of 2.5x) and posted an ERA of 2.94 and a 1.02 WHIP. He showed a ton of improvement with his ERA in the second half of the season with a 1.68 ERA and a .83 WHIP! Even pitching in Low-A, these are great numbers for a young pitcher in his first full season (over 50 IP) as a professional. Throughout his career, Arronde has been known for pounding the zone, something the Royals organization has pushed heavily to pitchers this season. Over the last few seasons, Arronde has had the following S%:

2021 – 66%
2022 – 76%
2023 – 72%
2024 – 67%

All of these would be above the league average, and anything above 70% would be some of the highest in all of baseball. He also boasts a 2.61 BB/9, which is well below league average.

The strikeout numbers aren’t elite for Arronde with 108 Ks over his 110 IP (K/9 8.4), but he makes up for it with his ability to force ground balls. He forced eight groundball double plays in 38 opportunities and often does not allow baserunners by forcing groundouts early on in innings. He has a ratio of 1.38 groundouts to flyouts which shows his ability to force groundouts at a high level. This trait should only improve as he develops his other two offerings.

As you dive even deeper into what Arronde offers on the mound, he’s very well rounded and the advanced metrics suggest he will have success moving forward. Another representation of how successful he is at forcing ground outs is the batting average he allows on balls put in play (BABIP) which is .252 about .04 below the MLB league average. Arronde is also quick to the plate and has had success with managing base runners; he has only allowed 16 stolen bases with 7 base runners being caught, and 3 pickoffs. This is a great sign of his maturity on the mound and the success that will come.

Final thoughts

It’s clear that Arronde isn’t a complete pitcher yet, but no one expects that from him at this point in his career. He’s only 21 years old and has plenty of time to develop, but the tools are there, and I expect him to move quickly through the system and continue to find success. He has the intangibles that are needed and shows signs that he will continue his success later in his career. His ground ball rates will continue to be high and his ability to force swing and miss will only get better with time as he adds new pitches and gets a better feel for what he can do on the mound.

Right now, Arronde is a starter and has shown the ability to be durable and go deep into starts. He will need to add some more endurance if he wants to continue this down the line and I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be able to do that. He already has good command and two high-quality pitches that should allow him to be a quality reliever if he can’t build up his stamina. Barring any trade or major setback, I think Arronde will be a major league pitcher for the Royals down the line and has the potential to become one of the best pitching prospects in the organization.

Image credit: Columbia Fireflies