Luinder Avila has been one of the most consistent minor league pitchers in the Royals system for the past six years. Avila was signed by the Royals when he was 16 years old out of Venezuela and has been underrated in the Royals system for some time now. Avila stands at 6’3/200 which is a great frame for an MLB pitcher, and he already has a quality pitch mix that will translate to major league play. Avila was promoted to Triple-A at the end of this season which is a good sign for his development and what the Royals see in him at 23 years old. He is one of the few Royals pitching prospects who are close to being major-league ready and is a name you will want to get to know as he gets closer to a potential MLB debut.
What is his pitch mix?
Avila has a strong pitch mix for a guy at his level of development, giving the Royals’ pitching development team a lot to work with. His primary pitch has always been his cutter, which sits low 90s right now but has gotten up to 96 MPH consistently early in starts. He pairs this with a slider, sinker, curve, and changeup which is a great mix for someone at his stage of development. The slider was not always a great part of his mix but has gotten a lot better. In the worst-case scenario, he will be a quality reliever out of the pen with a hard fastball, quality slider, and a big curve.
Late in the season Avila was promoted to the Triple-A roster and pitched one start of 4.1 innings. The start statistically wasn’t impressive as he gave up 5 runs but that is to be expected for someone moving up to Triple-A. The start did come with some promising numbers including the spin rates on his pitches which were consistently around or above average. His cutter had 2324 RPM which is slightly below average but is okay with the plus velocity on the pitch sitting around 93 MPH. The 4-seamer sat above 2300 and was around 94 MPH which is very promising and above MLB league average. The curve was the most impressive sitting around 2750 RPM, which is over 200 RPM above average. These impressive numbers set Avila up for success and with some offseason tweaks could be even more impressive. He displayed similar numbers in his last start in the offseason, showing great velocity and spin.
As of now, the Royals have shown that they would like Avila to continue as a starter to see what he has to offer at higher levels. We know the mix he has will play at a major league level, it is just a matter of improving the command some and getting those pitches to tunnel better and complement each other. For Avila to be a starter, the changeup development will be key, and while it’s not quite there yet, it has shown potential to be a consistent pitch. The usage rate for it is low and it’s clear he doesn’t have enough confidence in the pitch which likely will be a focus for him this offseason. If he can command it well and keep his quality fastball, Avila will be a very promising prospect for the Royals next year.
What went well in 2024?
We all have seen the stuff for Avila, and we know that it can translate to the MLB, the question is can he find the command and make the stuff translate to the stat sheet? Avila pitched most of the year in Double-A Northwest Arkansas where he had quality numbers and showed a lot of promise. In Double-A this year Avila had a 3.81 ERA over 82.2 innings which may not be eye-popping, but he did battle injury for much of this year and looked great in stretches this season. The goal for Luinder will be to improve the command of his pitches to keep people off base and to have some consistency on the mound to repeat his success.
Statistically, Avila has never had amazing numbers. I’m going to narrow my focus on his numbers this year in Double-A because to me that is the most relevant. At a base level, Avila had an ERA of 3.81, an allowed AVG of .229, and a WHIP of 1.38 this season. His control will need to get better, and this is reflected by his 43 BBs to 73 Ks over 82.2 innings. These numbers are not elite by any stretch and would be mildly concerning if not for his great stuff and other advanced metrics that would suggest he will improve down the line.
Avila is a ground ball pitcher, something the Royals will love about him with how great their infield is defensively. Avila has a GO/AO ratio of 1.38 and would be even higher with better defense on the infield across the board. He gives up a lot of contact, but it is almost always soft and allows for his defense to make plays behind him. Over his 82.2 innings, he has only allowed 4 HRs and has an HR/9 of .42 which is well below the league average.
Summary
Avila has the stuff to be a great pitcher, and with some small tweaks could be even better. He’s still young and time is more than on his side. Avila has added velocity over the last year and has now gotten into the upper 90s. The other pitches mix well with big spin and velocity, but he will need to improve command and get a little more precision on his pitches. Avila will likely be on the 40-man roster next year to keep him from the Rule 5 Draft. While the numbers haven’t been great at face level, the advanced numbers show a lot of promise. The Royals see that and if he shows improvement in production, we very well could see Avila on the major league roster next season.
Image credit: David McLelland/Northwest Arkansas Naturals