Drafted in July of 2022, Javier Vaz has played in just two full seasons of professional ball. He was a quick promotion to Columbia the summer of his drafting, where he played just 27 games. Vaz started 2023 at high-A before finishing his last 33 games at double-A. He lit up social media and message boards with a .304/.391/.429 slash in those games, showing what he was capable of at his ceiling. Entering 2024, there was some hype around his potential. Contrastingly, there was caution surrounding his overall ability to produce as a big leaguer.
2024 Overview
Vaz started fairly slow this season with his April performance. His lack of power typically becomes very prevalent when faced with adversity making contact. Thankfully for him, Vaz possesses incredible on-base ability, keeping his .341 OBP in April amongst the best on the squad. His OBP was his biggest upside this entire season. Just one month of 2024 resulted in an OBP below .340. Regardless of how often he struggled with the bat, Vaz was more than capable of producing defensively and as a baserunner for the Naturals.
Javier Vaz wasn’t the perfect display of success throughout the season, as he spiked in production and locked into his power in small batches. In June, Vaz swatted four home runs, five doubles, and a triple to boost his slugging to a 2024 second-best: .464. He topped that in just 45 at-bats in an injury-shortened July at .511. In both months, his gap-to-gap power and speed combination were the reasons for his success. When he was able to produce extra-base hits, Vaz was never as successful with his average. In his powerful June, Vaz batted just .238. It was July that was his best all around, reaching his potential for just a short 45 at-bats. He slashed .289/.396/.511 with 12 runs scored, six walks, and just a single strikeout.
Vaz was capable of seeing success in his style of ball as well. The “swing and run” prospect tapped into his strength for a couple of months in 2024. In August, his average topped at .302 alongside a healthy .413 OBP. By his standards, it was the best month of 2024 with a .785 OPS. He had a better OPS in other months throughout the season, but Vaz was producing in ways he most likely won’t at the next level. This August combination of a 17/9 BB/K ratio and a .300 batting average is the bread and butter of Vaz as a prospect. He also found success in May, slashing .280/.425/.355. This was where he established his walkability with 22 walks in 93 at-bats. It was an almost identical OPS to August (.780) with a lot of heavy lifting done by the walks.
High Floor Prospect
Vaz established that even when he struggles, he can be a productive member of the big-league roster someday. He struggled to start the season with a measly .243/.341/.297 slash in April which resulted in a wRC+ of 89, scoring 11 runs in 22 games played. It is by no means a great month, however, for a player who is struggling, it shows an ability to remain well within an average production range. His OBP floated his performance enough to regulate how often he could remain a threat on the basepaths.
His speed rating (usually abbreviated to SPD and rated from 0-10) in April was 6.2. Javi’s ability to get on base and move around the basepaths enables him to be an asset even in months when his production slumps. Calling him a future nine-hole hitter isn’t exactly exciting for fans to read about. However, any prospect with the potential of becoming an everyday major leaguer is something to write about.
Javier Vaz showed throughout his 2024 season what his floor could be. Whenever his bat slumped, he was able to perform for his team. This is clear to the organization as well, as they proved their trust in him by promoting him to triple-A for their post-season run. In his June performance, he flashed the power, and his SPD rating jumped to 8.5. When he struggled to hit for contact during this period, his OBP was the same as his lowlight April at .340. Javier Vaz has a high floor because he has multiple tools to flash: defense, contact, on-base, and gap power. They may not all produce at one time, but they are all present in his game.
What is Javi’s Upside?
When Javier Vaz was drafted in the 15th round of the 2022 draft, I looked into him for just 15 minutes. That’s all I needed to believe he could be an everyday player for the Kansas City Royals. Vanderbilt pedigree, junior college athlete, multi-faceted defender, and highlight reel potential at multiple positions. As a 15th-round pick, it was about the best value you can hope to find in a college hitter. This season became Vaz’s chance to display each of his abilities to perform at his potential. If you’re looking for a sample to compare to his ultimate ability, look no further than July.
While shortened by injury, his July was his coming out party as a potential Royals leadoff hitter. Javier Vaz finished July with a 156 wRC+, .222 ISO, 1.9% strikeout rate, and a .413 wOBA. It was just 45 at-bats, but his .907 OPS is something he had yet to demonstrate as a prospect with the Royals. In just two weeks’ worth of games, Vaz scored 12 runs and had eight RBI, exhibiting a spark that the 2024 Royals lacked in their leadoff spot.
Vaz needs to show that this version of himself can remain consistent before we expect to see him batting ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. That being said, Vaz could look to establish that role at AAA next year with the only opportunity for promotion being the MLB. Even with regression as he sees the pinnacle of pitching, Vaz showed in 2024 that when one tool struggles, the others can continue to keep him valuable.
2025 Outlook
Javier Vaz was promoted to end the season and help Omaha in a playoff run. This may not stick in 2025 simply because of roster space but I expect him to stay at the AAA after Spring Training next April. The Major League club will likely look to spend a bit this off-season and continue to compete for the AL Central. This will limit how likely Vaz is to get to the bigs in 2025 but expect him to reside on the shortlist for call-ups when necessary. He hasn’t had a season with a wRC+ below average with his lowest at any level being 118. Assuming that trend continues in 2025, the Royals will have to take a good look at him if any utility positions open up mid-season.
The overall stats for Vaz look a bit underwhelming from a distance, but when you zoom in and dissect each month there is significantly more to get excited about. He walked 73 times to just 60 strikeouts, flashed some gap-to-gap power that can carry to a big outfield, and there was just enough to see him piece it all together. Even though he struggled in September 2024, this season became a potential launching pad for a promotion in 2025.
Image credit: Northwest Arkansas Naturals
