The Kansas City Royals are banking on their offense taking steps forward next season. Over the second half of 2023, the offense took serious strides forward. As a result, the team has spent big in free agency to surround their young hitters with more veteran talent. You can find starting rotation projections here and outfield projections here. Perhaps nowhere on the roster showcases the young talent the Royals have to offer than the infield.
The group has all the makings of a strong young core. Between Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Vinnie Pasquantino, there have already been glimpses into just how good this young infield can become. Others, like Michael Massey and Nick Loftin, have shown off promising tools in the minor leagues. Those tools have been on display at times, but Massey has struggled in his major league career thus far.
Others such as Samad Taylor, Garrett Hampson, and Dairon Blanco figure to impact the roster in more of a utility role. Taylor can play second base and all three outfield positions. Hampson and Blanco can also play all three outfield positions, and Hampson can play his share of infield positions as well. With Witt, Garcia, and Pasquantino seemingly locked into their respective positions last season, the real puzzle will be how Michael Massey, Nick Loftin, Samad Taylor, and Garrett Hampson all come together to fill second base and utility at-bats.
Here is how each player projects next season according to the Farm to Fountains projections.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Projection: 155 G, .272/.307/.482, 29 HR, 44 SB, 18.2% K%, 5.6% BB%
On the surface, this projection might look like a decline compared to Bobby Witt Jr.’s sophomore campaign in 2023. After finishing his season at such a torrid pace, it’s easy to forget just how rough the first two months of last season were for Witt. As aggressive as Witt may be at the plate, it makes him much more susceptible to batted-ball luck. To start last season (from Opening Day through the end of May), Witt slashed just .228/.266/.430. That was good for an 81 wRC+, thanks in part to a .256 BABIP.
Then, from June 1 through the end of the season, Witt slashed .303/.347/.530. His BABIP was up to .314. As hard as he hits the ball, Witt Jr. can match that production over a full season. More likely, he’s going to be subject to cold spells, especially to start the season. We’ve already seen two cold spells to open the year in each of his first two MLB seasons. This projection would still be a fantastic season for the young Superstar. Unless he begins to practice more discipline at the plate, he’s always going to be more subject to batted-ball luck.
Maikel Garcia
Projection: 145 G, .275/.328/.376, 7 HR, 33 SB, 21.4% K%, 8.2% BB%
Maikel Garcia is going to be out of place at third base for as long as his power production remains this low. He’s still valuable there with strong defense but it remains a bit of a mismatch. Garcia started to find a groove as a leadoff man down the stretch for the Royals. That success tapered off some over the season’s back-half. After the All-Star Break, Garcia walked just 6.8% of the time. His 13 extra-base hits over that span were less than Nick Loftin (14) despite Garcia having 50 more plate appearances.
If Garcia doesn’t walk at a healthy rate then he becomes — like Witt Jr. — very reliant on batted-ball luck. That combination at the top of the lineup isn’t a combination I’d prefer. Still, the leadoff spot is likely Garcia’s to lose. He’s shown excellent on-base ability throughout his minor league career and was among the best in Kansas City last season in that regard.
Michael Massey
Projection: 135 G, .238/.281/.407, 18 HR, 7 SB, 22.2% K%, 6.2% BB%
Massey has drawn the ire of many Royals fans after a lackluster start to his Major League career. Throughout his minor league career, he showcased average plate discipline and excellent power for a second baseman. Thus far in Kansas City, only the power has started to come through. In 65 games before the All-Star Break last season, Massey hit four home runs and had 11 total extra-base hits. He then came alive after the break. Over 64 games post-All-Star Break he belted 11 home runs and had 23 extra-base hits.
If that power can continue, Massey will be much more valuable at the plate. He already has good defensive skills which carried much of his 0.5 fWAR value last season. This projection still leaves a lot to be desired in the average and on-base department, meaning Nick Loftin and Garrett Hampson should get their share of time at second base to spell Massey. With what we’ve seen, I still believe the second-base job should be Massey’s to lose.
Vinnie Pasquantino
Projection: 140 G, .278/.348/.457, 20 HR, 1 SB, 11.7% K%, 10.3% BB%
The Royals’ offense sorely missed Pasquantino’s production and having him back next season will be a huge boost. He saw a drop-off in production over the limited sample size we saw in 2023 but much of that was anchored by very low BABIP numbers. Nothing we saw makes the future concerning for Pasquantino. He has the best approach on the entire roster and should offer an elite blend of walks, extra-base hits, and [low] strikeouts.
There’s an argument here for Pasquantino to be the number two hitter for much of next season. For the offense to truly get going, the Royals need men on base ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. Witt offers more power upside at the plate but far worse on-base ability than Pasquantino. For that reason, flipping the two and putting Witt in the three-hole might make the offense click a bit more.
Salvador Perez
Projection: 135 G, .255/.272/.421, 21 HR, 0 SB, 23.1% K%, 3.4% BB%
Despite the whispers that Perez might be traded this offseason, he should be back next season. Many of the free agents named Perez as a strong factor behind their decision to sign with the Royals and it would be difficult to imagine J.J. Picollo then turning around and trading Perez away. As far as next season is concerned, there should be a healthy dose of first base and designated hitter in store for Salvy. Between the three positions, Kansas City should be able to squeeze 135 games out of him.
Even if the days of 40+ home runs are behind us, Perez was surprisingly good at the plate over the second half of last season. He hit .267 after the break and cut his strikeout rate down to 21.7%. That version of Perez still holds enough value as a number-five hitter in a Major League lineup. It may be Perez’s last chance at a playoff run and the Royals seem poised to help him make it.
Nick Loftin
Projection: 100 G, .251/.314/.398, 13 HR, 12 SB, 14.5% K%, 9.6% BB%
Nick Loftin was outstanding in a very limited sample last season. He posted a 118 wRC+ over a very small 19-game sample in 2023. Although it seems a bit optimistic to expect another showing with an OPS over .800, Loftin still should provide great value if used correctly. Assuming Massey has the everyday second base role locked down, Loftin should get plenty of playing time giving Massey and Maikel Garcia days off. Loftin could also play third while Garcia gives Witt Jr. days off in the field.
Not too different from Pasquantino, Loftin offers a great blend of contact ability and patience at the plate. He won’t likely strike out very much at all and even if he doesn’t hit for an elite average, he will walk enough to carry on-base value. I still expect a bit of regression in year two but not enough to be concerning long-term.
Garrett Hampson
Projection: 70 G, .263/.323/.366, 2 HR, 5 SB, 26.9% K%, 9.3% BB%
On the surface, both of the Royals’ offensive additions this offseason are a bit puzzling. Hampson was signed to fill a role that seemingly could be covered by a mixture of Nick Loftin and Samad Taylor. A look at Hampson’s ability might show why the Royals felt he was a good fit. Hampson strikes out a bit above league average but his combination of hit tool and patience made him an on-base machine last season.
For the Rockies last year he finished with a .349 OBP. That mark would’ve been miles and away the best among Royals with at least 200 PA last season. Vinnie Pasquantino led the 2023 Royals with a .324 OBP. If he can repeat the performance, Hampson greatly raises the on-base ability of the lineup and should allow the Royals run-producers to bring in more runs.
Samad Taylor
Projection: 65 G, .230/.305/.358, 4 HR, 19 SB, 27.0% K%, 10.5% BB%
The Royals did Samad Taylor a bit of a disservice last season. His playing time was few and far between following his callup mid-season. As a result, he never truly got the chance to settle in with the major league club. Had that happened, it’s entirely likely the Royals felt more confident in Taylor to fill the role that Hampson will now take over. Taylor doesn’t have much power to speak of but he has always walked at a healthy rate.
Much like Hampson, he strikes out above league average. In very sparing work last season, that strikeout rate was up to 31.9%. I’m unsure that Taylor even makes the big league roster out of Spring Training. If he does, it’ll be a utility role much like Hampson figures to fill. I don’t expect both to make the roster.
Freddy Fermin
Projection: 85 G, .250/.294/.419, 11 HR, 0 SB, 20.4% K%, 6.8% BB%
Fermin was a great surprise last season. After showing up big time at the Dominican Winter League, much of that success carried over to Kansas City. Thanks to that showing, the Royals are much better positioned to leave MJ Melendez in the outfield and still give Salvador Perez valuable time off behind the plate. Altogether, Fermin slashed .281/.321/.461 with 9 home runs before a finger injury ended his season prematurely.
To expect the same power production seems unlikely. Fermin wasn’t much of a power hitter in the minor leagues until 2022. Still, he should do enough to be dangerous. The larger concern (like so many other Royals) is the lack of on-base ability. He certainly went to the Salvador Perez School of Taking Walks because he simply didn’t do it much last year. Fermin’s 6.6% walk rate fell to under 5% in the season’s second half.
Dairon Blanco
Projection: 75 G, .261/.299/.414, 5 HR, 39 SB, 22.1% K%, 7.0% BB%
I left Blanco off my outfield projection inadvertently. To be quite honest, I didn’t expect him to survive the 40-man roster cuts this offseason. A closer look at the numbers, however, makes it clear that he offers some value to the major league roster. He probably shouldn’t be an everyday player. Instead, a Terrence Gore-type role suits him well. Of course, he’s excellent on the base paths — setting the Omaha Storm Chasers single-season steals record last season. What surprised me most last year was his ability with the bat.
Blanco finished last year with a .194 ISO. For much of his career, the power output was nearly nonexistent. That is, until 2022 when he saw a serious uptick in power ability at the plate. If Blanco can maintain that then he profiles more like a fourth outfielder than a pinch-runner specialist. The problem is that the Royals already have two or three fourth-outfielders ahead of Blanco on the depth chart.
Nick Pratto
Projection: 115 G, .214/.275/.344, 10 HR, 1 SB, 40.2% K%, 8.5% BB%
I ran this projection for Pratto over a larger game sample to see if he could even be a valuable bench bat. Barring a serious change in his approach at the plate, the answer is no. Pratto simply strikes out far too much and that prevents him from getting to his immense power. The walks have come down substantially from his resurgence for Omaha back in 2021. Unfortunately, the other big-name prospects that season (Witt and Melendez) have left Pratto behind.
It would be an excellent development for the offense if Pratto could be even an average depth piece at first base. From what we’ve seen so far, however, that seems extremely unlikely.
