As much work as the Kansas City Royals have done to improve their starting pitching this offseason, the bullpen may be even more improved. Last season, the Royals finished the season with a 5.23 ERA among relievers. That mark ranked 29th in the league, ahead of only Colorado. By midseason, the team had started to make some adjustments and at season’s end, there were more promising pieces pitching out of the bullpen.
Carlos Hernández couldn’t repeat his masterful first half, but James McArthur was a welcome addition. John McMillon looked like a strong addition as well, although it was a very short stay due to injury. Projecting next season’s bullpen is a bit difficult. Right now — assuming six starters on Opening Day — there are at least 14 relievers vying for a Major League spot. Teams cannot roster more than 14 pitchers on the 26-man roster. As such, between five starters and a swingman, only 7 relievers will get a chance at best.
When projecting next season, I’ve taken each pitcher and projected them over what workload I would expect assuming they made the roster for the full season. Some, including newcomers Will Smith and Chris Stratton, are much more likely than others to earn a guaranteed spot. Others, like Steven Cruz and Will Klein, may have to earn their spot in Spring Training. Either way, almost all of these arms will likely pitch in the majors at some point next season. Depth is valuable in the bullpen. Here are the Farm to Fountains projections for each arm.
Carlos Hernández
Projection: 60 G, 62.0 IP, 5.11 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 73 SO, 31 BB
Hernández was as bad in the second half of 2023 as he was good in the first half. The severe 180 he took was almost unpredictable. He pitched to a 3.83 ERA over 44.2 IP before the All-Star Break. After, he had an ugly 7.82 over 25.1 IP. Hernández saw a severe dip in his strikeout rate and walked far more hitters. In the end, it became yet another inconsistent season with lots of potential unmet. The Royals have every reason to give Hernández another chance in 2024, but this time they have the depth to remove him if it goes south quickly.
Will Smith
Projection: 58 G, 54.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 50 SO, 18 BB
Smith has famously won three consecutive World Series. He’s been an impressive reliever for quite some time, although he isn’t nearly as dominant now as he once was. Still, he will provide a veteran baseline to a young bullpen. Somewhat concerning, he saw a serious dip in production over the second half of last season. His first-half ERA (3.06) was much better than the 6.12 mark he owned after the All-Star Break. Smith’s strikeout rate fell nearly nine percent over that span, which gives some pause looking ahead to next season. Still, he’s a veteran, and getting back on the rails is very possible.
alec Marsh
Projection: 25 G, 112.1 IP, 5.08 ERA, 5.48 FIP, 132 SO, 56 BB
Marsh may have found his best role toward the end of last season. By then, he was pitching four innings on average behind an opener. Over those five outings (yes, it’s a small sample) his ERA was 4.43 and his FIP was 3.08. Most importantly, he allowed just one home run over 22.1 IP. Marsh had allowed 14 on the season prior. The strikeout ability is clear with Marsh but he was hit hard last season and struggled with walks the same way he always has. I love his potential as a long-reliever out of the pen, especially if that helps him reduce the home runs. I’m still not sure he has quite developed into an average reliever yet.
Nick Anderson
Projection: 30 G, 29.1 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 31 SO, 9 BB
Nick Anderson was a great addition this offseason, but there’s a reason he only cost cash. I’m not so sure he’s very healthy and if the Royals expect a large inning workload next season, they’ll certainly be disappointed. However, whatever innings Anderson can give should be good ones. He’s been consistently effective over his limited MLB career thus far and I don’t expect that to change now. Despite the small workload, there’s still plenty of value here and he rarely gives free passes.
Jonathan Bowlan
Projection: 20 G, 58.1 IP, 6.03 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 53 SO, 25 BB
Bowlan is a long way down the road from his masterful no-hitter for Wilmington back in 2019. After Tommy John Surgery and the long road back, he hasn’t quite become the same pitcher we saw. His stuff is still good at times. The fastball worked back some last year and his slider remains strong. Last year he was hit hard at times, giving up his share of home runs. He also walked around 10% of hitters which is slightly above the league average. Bowlan could easily surpass this projection, but based on what we’ve seen since his return from surgery, I’d expect this more than a better one.
Jake Brentz
Projection: 40 G, 44.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 47 SO, 27 BB
Jake Brentz has been seen by some as a 40-man roster casualty this offseason. Instead, he survived it and it shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone. The Royals guaranteed Brentz’s 2024 salary when they signed him last offseason. At the time, they knew he would miss all of 2023 with injury. Last we saw him, he was an excellent lefty out of the bullpen and nothing we’ve seen yet indicates that couldn’t be the case again. Assuming he’s fully healthy, Brentz could be an important piece of next year’s bullpen. He’s one of just a few lefty relievers on the 40-man roster and could surprise next season.
Steven Cruz
Projection: 20 G, 24.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 27 SO, 15 BB
Steven Cruz has an excellent fastball. Unfortunately, he also has terrible command and not much else to rely on. As such, his strikeout totals will likely be strong alongside high walk numbers. His sample size in the majors wasn’t large last season, but still, he walked nearly a batter per inning and owned a 4.97 ERA. In the Dominican Winter League this offseason, he’s pitched 5.0 innings, struck out seven, walked six, and given up six runs.
Will Klein
Projection: 28 G, 37.0 IP, 4.75 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 50 SO, 24 BB
Klein is an intriguing option in 2024. On one hand, he was dominant for much of the 2023 season. He had strong strikeout numbers all season. For Double-A Northwest Arkansas, Klein owned a strong 3.38 ERA. At the Futures Game, he seemed to struggle and those struggles carried him back to Omaha to finish up his season. Klein walked 6.4 batters per nine innings for the Storm Chasers. The idea that he’s a lock for the MLB bullpen is misguided, but he still has a strong chance to pitch his way into the pen next spring. If he does, there’s a ton of upside to find. Command will be the key, as inconsistency has plagued him thus far in the minor leagues.
James McArthur
Projection: 63 G, 70.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 74 SO, 25 BB
Much of the hype — for good reason — went to the Cole Ragans acquisition last season. However, James McArthur was an excellent addition by the Royals’ front office as well. After struggling for much of the season in the Phillies’ organization, the Royals moved McArthur to the bullpen full time and he started to flourish immediately. In Omaha, McArthur’s SO/9 totals jumped more than four to 12.6. That number dropped some upon reaching the major leagues, but he walked just two batters over 23.1 MLB innings. Kansas City isn’t deciding on one designated closer, but if they were, McArthur would have a great chance to claim that role.
John McMillon
Projection: 63 G, 60.0 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 96 SO, 43 BB
John McMillon was one of the best stories in the entire minor leagues last season. After struggling for the Low-A Columbia Fireflies in 2022, he again started there to open last season. When he heard the news in Spring Training, he was anything but happy. That fueled him all season and he quickly moved to High-A, then Double-A, then straight the the big leagues. It was a short stint for the Royals, as a forearm strain ended his season prematurely.
The Royals were careful with him but no other news has broken, meaning the injury should be nothing more. McMillon looks like a future dominant back-end rotation option. As long as he maintains his improved command, he may be the best reliever in the entire Royals bullpen.
Matt Sauer
Projection: 28 G, 96.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 94 SO, 41 BB
Matt Sauer has a great chance to make the roster on Opening Day. As a Rule 5 pick, Kansas City must keep him on their 26-man roster or offer him back to the Yankees. If he struggles mightily in Spring Training, they may do just that but he looks like a great candidate to succeed. I see his path forward as very similar to Brad Keller’s. Sauer should start the season out of the bullpen but the end goal is to ease him into the starting rotation. Sauer started games for his entire 2023 season at Double-A. He’s a top 30 prospect as a starter and the Royals will eventually give him a chance to prove it.
Chris Stratton
Projection: 55 G, 71.0 IP, 4.40 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 70 SO, 23 BB
The Chris Stratton signing wasn’t as hyped as the Will Smith signing, but he’s arguably a better reliever. Stratton has been extremely consistent of late, pitching strong MLB innings out of the bullpen. He’s a steady contributor and one that should help to anchor the baseline of the Royals bullpen next season. His workload will be one of the heaviest but as a veteran arm, that’s exactly what this young bullpen needs.
Josh Taylor
Projection: 35 G, 32.0 IP, 4.93 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 40 SO, 16 BB
Taylor, like Brentz, was at the top of many fans’ DFA list this offseason. The Royals held on. Although they may want to squeeze every bit of value they can out of Adalberto Mondesi, it’s more likely that the team was happy with what they saw in limited work last season. Taylor is one of just a handful of lefty reliever options in Kansas City and had strong strikeout numbers in 2023. He struck out 31.3% of hitters in 17.1 IP after striking out 28.7% in 47.2 IP for Boston in 2021. The Royals are banking on that upside returning, although health will be the biggest factor.
Anthony Veneziano
Projection: 20 G, 51.1 IP, 4.22 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 45 SO, 20 BB
Veneziano and Bowlan made their Major League debuts last season. Veneziano was one of the organization’s best starters to open last season. He was masterful for Northwest Arkansas. After a promotion to Omaha, he was still good at times but not quite the same. The best path forward for Veneziano is an Amir Garrett-type relief role. His command simply doesn’t hold up over a starter’s workload and even in small samples, he will struggle with walks. Still, there’s value to find here and Veneziano has an upside to uncover. In this projection, he’s averaging nearly three innings per outing, making him a nice long-relief option to rely on.
Angel Zerpa
Projection: 32 G, 91.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 79 SO, 30 BB
Zerpa wasn’t included in my starting rotation projections. He’s been a starter for much of his career thus far, until last season. The Royals put Zerpa on a similar path as Alec Marsh, making him a multi-inning reliever to pitch late into games. It worked out well. In September, Zerpa pitched in 19.2 innings over 7 appearances. In that span, he owned a 2.29 ERA, striking out 19 and walking only two. That’s the role I’d love to see Zerpa inherit again next season. Zerpa is still young and can always return to the starting rotation if needed, but Kansas City needs to put its arms in the best position possible. The days of forcing them into positions of need should be over.
