Spencer Nivens was drafted by the Royals in the fifth round of the 2023 draft. He was a somewhat local product out of Missouri State University in Springfield. He can play center field and much like Carson Roccaforte — drafted a few rounds ahead of Nivens — he’s a batted ball darling. In college, Nivens boasted impressive numbers. In 2022, Nivens ranked 99.9th percentile in chase rate at a measly 10.7%. That bat-to-ball skill showed itself quickly in Columbia, where Nivens posted a 6.4% swinging strike rate. That mark ranked fourth in the farm system and not far behind Javier Vaz leading the way at 3.3%.

Season Stats:

2023 (Low-A): .184/.336/.276, 18.9% BB%, 16.4% K%, 87 wRC+

Just as small samples can lead to very good results that won’t last, they too lead to poor results that probably won’t last either. The latter is the case with Nivens last season. His approach was sound and he made good swing decisions. The contact Nivens made in his Low-A debut was loud but he suffered from a .208 BABIP. Over a larger sample, that will regress much more to the mean and lead to better box score results for Nivens.

Throughout college, Nivens showed an ability to hit mid-90s velocity while maintaining a very low chase rate and very high exit velocities. His Max EV in 2022 was 95th percentile. I still think Nivens has a ways to go in his development compared to Roccaforte, but the value could be just as high if it all comes together. Nivens offers a great foundation for the Royals to build upon and could be a quick riser in the prospect rankings.

Scouting Grades:

Hit: 45/60

Game Power: 40/50

Raw Power: 40/55

Speed: 50/50

Glove: 45/50

Arm: 45/50

Best Case Scenario

My normal exercise for finding a player comp brought me to Robbie Grossman. Then, my initial scouting led me to rank Nivens down at 37 in the farm system. Upon a more detailed look, he jumped 20 spots. Nivens has an impressive ability to make contact. At the same time, he’s able to generate loud contact without sacrificing much contact. I thought of Maikel Garcia often when diving deeper into Nivens’ abilities, simply because he has the potential for a similar batted-ball and hard-hit rate profile. The small frame may limit the power upside, but Nivens seems like a future corner outfielder who can provide good offensive value at the front of an MLB lineup.

Worst Case Scenario

Upon my initial quick looks at Nivens post-draft, the contact ability was clear. However, he was pulling the ball a lot in Columbia and lofting the ball too much for his loud exit velocity to truly impact at the plate. Hard contact can only take a player so far if they’re hitting the ball in the dirt or — in this case — lofting the ball too much. Although he’s sound defensively, Nivens looks like he may be an average defender, providing most of his value with the bat. If he can’t put all the tools together into a neat, finished package than he’s more of a depth fourth-outfielder than a true everyday big leaguer.