Even though there have been lots of Royals stories to pay attention to during this 6-4 start to the year, Maikel Garcia may stick out the most.
A year ago, Garcia debuted at the MLB level and showed some promise in 123 games and 515 plate appearances with the Royals. As the Royals’ primary leadoff hitter, Garcia slashed .272/.323/.358 with a wOBA of .299 and wRC+ of 84, according to Fangraphs.
Thanks to stellar defense (he was 13 outs above average at the hot corner last year, according to Savant), he produced an fWAR of 2.1 in his rookie year, the second-best mark on the team behind Bobby Witt, Jr.
Unfortunately, on a hitting end, he tailed off a bit at the end of the season and proved slightly below average in most categories. He was particularly lackluster in power, as he only posted an ISO of .086 and an HR/FB% of 4.1%.
This year, though, has been a different story for Garcia through the Royals’ first ten games.
After only hitting four home runs in 515 plate appearances in 2023, Garcia has hit three home runs in 44. This included a home run in his first plate appearance of the year against Minnesota ace Pablo Lopez.
In addition to his three home runs, Garcia sports a .317 ISO, a .352 wOBA, and a 128 wRC+ so far this season, according to Fangraphs.
He still is striking out about the same amount (22.7%) as he did a season ago (22.3%), and his walk rate (4.5%) and BB/K ratio (0.20) are both down from 2023 (7.4%; 0.33). That said, he is still hitting the ball hard, evident by his 93.3 MPH average exit velocity and 53.1% hard-hit rate, which rank in the 86th and 84th percentile, respectively.
Of course, the 24-year-old Venezuelan infielder also hit the ball hard last year. According to Savant, he ranked in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate in 2023. So, making hard contact is nothing new for the budding Royals star.
The difference this year is his batted ball profile and the direction and angle he is hitting the ball this year, especially compared to a season ago.
That could be the difference for Garcia in 2024 if he takes the next step like Witt or becomes another Royals infielder who makes loud contact but puts up paltry power and offensive numbers.
Garcia Pulling the Ball Slightly More in 2024 (And It’s Affecting His Other Categories Positively)
In his rookie season, Garcia proved to be a contact machine at the plate for the Royals.
He sported a whiff rate of 19.5%, which ranked in the 82nd percentile, and he only had a chase rate of 20.6%, which ranked in the 89th percentile. Those characteristics weren’t typical of Royals hitters not just a season ago but over the last decade.
Garcia’s high-contact, low-chase approach resulted in a spray profile that had him place base hits all over the field in 2023, though often for singles. That can be seen below in his 2023 spray chart via Savant.
Garcia had hits that probably should’ve gotten out of the yard in 2023. Furthermore, his .319 xwOBA was 20 points higher than his actual wOBA last season. Regardless, he settled for many singles, most coming either up the middle or to the opposite field.
This year, it seems like Garcia is making a more intentional effort to pull the ball.
Garcia’s pull rate is 31.3% this season, 1.9% higher than a year ago. His spray chart also shows a more significant number of base hits to the pull side, though that tailed slightly in the most recent series against the White Sox.
The chart above shows Garcia’s two pulled home runs this year. That said, he also pulled a ball in Baltimore that would’ve been a home run at the K under more neutral weather circumstances. That demonstrates that Garcia could’ve already matched his home run total from a year ago at this point in the year if the park factors were slightly different.
In addition to pulling the ball more than a season ago, Garcia is also barreling the ball more than ever.
Last season, he posted a barrel rate of 3.9%, which ranked in the 10th percentile of the league. This year? That barrel rate is up to 18.8%, which places him in the 92nd percentile of the league.
Here’s an example of Garcia’s more pull-focused batted-ball approach: On March 31st, against Bailey Ober and the Twins, he produced a barrel and a home run that would’ve been out of all 30 ballparks in the league.
Royals fans didn’t see that kind of swing very often, if ever, from Garcia in his rookie year. It wasn’t that Garcia couldn’t hit the ball hard. He certainly did in 2023 and on frequent occasions to boot.
Instead, he struggled to get lift under the ball, resulting in more line drives and ground balls than fly balls that could go out for home runs, like the one above. That is a big reason he posted such paltry ISO and slugging rates despite high hard-hit rates.
This year, Garcia’s FB% is up from 18.3% in 2023 to 21.9% in 2024. Furthermore, his HR/FB% is up from 4.1% in 2023 to 27.3% in 2024.
Of course, that’s not sustainable over 162 games. However, his drop in IFFB% (infield fly ball percentage) from 10.2% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2024 and a slight increase in sweet spot% from 36.9% (2023) to 37.5% (2024) show that Garcia is hitting the ball with more purpose to begin the season.
His career sweet spot rolling chart via Savant also demonstrates how strong a start Garcia got off to in this category to begin the year, even though he did cool a bit off in the most recent series against the White Sox.
It’s only ten games, but Garcia’s offseason and spring work to pull and lift the ball more frequently is paying off. He showed signs of that progress in the Venezuelan Winter League with Tiburones.
Garcia’s batted-ball improvement makes the Royals lineup even more potent up at the top, especially with Witt and Salvy off to stellar starts on the hitting end.
Will Garcia Cool Off and Regress? (It Depends On His Aggressiveness)
After pulling the ball frequently and looking more like his cousin Ronald Acuna, Jr rather than Alcides Escobar (also his cousin) against Minnesota and Baltimore, Garcia fell back to earth a bit in the White Sox series.
In four games against the South Siders, Garcia went 3-for-16 with no extra-base hits. As a result, he saw his slugging go from .800 to .517 in the four-game span.
Of course, that slugging percentage is still stellar, especially for his standards. In addition, his .830 OPS is still one of the better marks of Royals hitters in 2024.
Nonetheless, it got Royals fans wondering: Was his scorching start against the Twins and Orioles just a flash in the pan, and is he due for regression soon?
His launch angle rolling chart through his first 44 plate appearances suggests a fall back to earth could be in the cards.
After being around or above league average when it came to launch angle in his first 20 batted balls, his launch angle has dramatically dipped in his last ten batted balls. His most recent sample is what Royals fans saw more often from Garcia in his rookie year.
On the flip side, looking at his launch angle and whiff zones from 2023 and 2024 could give a sense of what kind of hitter Garcia could be throughout this season.
Here’s a look at his launch angle and whiff charts from last season.
Garcia showed incredible contact ability in the middle and below. However, he struggled to generate much lift on those pitches when he did make contact. Conversely, while he did launch balls better up in the zone, he posted his highest whiff rates in those three upper areas of the strike zone last year.
Now, let’s look at those same charts from this year.
This season, his best launch angles are in the middle-middle and middle-in areas of the strike zone. Furthermore, he also posts low whiff rates in those two areas of the zone. That is an excellent combination for not just hitting success but also an increase in power production.
Here’s an example of Garcia connecting on a pitch in the middle-in area of the strike zone and barreling it for a double.
It will be essential and critical for Garcia to take advantage of those pitches in the middle-middle and middle-in of the strike zone. He’s having the most success in those two areas, especially regarding power.
Granted, he’s not always going to get pitched in that part of the strike zone purposefully, especially as pitchers get more of a scouting report on Garcia. He must be aggressive and look early for pitches in those zones. The Royals need Garcia to be an effective leadoff hitter, and Garcia’s best opportunity to do that is not by being passive.
Garcia getting on base and in scoring position early for Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvy will be necessary for the Royals to score runs and, eventually, win games. Garcia has the potential to be a doubles and triples machine (especially with his speed) and a hitter who could start games with home runs and putting runs on the board.
Garcia’s series against Chicago was a bit stagnant. However, the Royals’ offense seemed to experience some growing pains in the White Sox series after facing two tough teams, the Twins and Orioles, to begin the year.
The Royals will get three games against the Houston Astros to finish the homestand. Thus, Royals fans have to wonder if Garcia will flash his power going again, much like he did against Minnesota and Baltimore.
How he pounces on those pitches in the middle-middle and middle-in of the strike zone could be the difference in the next three games and perhaps his outlook for this 2024 campaign.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
