Photo credit: Michael Wyke, Associated Press
The 2024 college baseball season has continued to chug on since our last mock draft back in April. Charlie Condon continues to obliterate baseballs. He’s up to 34 homers already in 50 games, which is absolutely absurd. Right there with him, Travis Bazzana has continued to do what we’ve grown accustomed to. Those two are the clear top two options in this year’s draft. Behind them, Jac Caglianone has been on the rise once again, and J.J. Wetherholt has been heating back up since returning from injury.
As we did last time, this mock will run using Prospect Live’s 2024 Mock Draft Simulator. The Simulator is a paid feature for Patreon subscribers, and well worth it.
Round 1, Pick 6 (6 Overall): SS/OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep (MS)
Griffin is the top prep prospect in this year’s draft, even if some have started inching Bryce Rainer closer and closer to the top. I still see a sizeable gap between the two. Griffin has played shortstop and center field in high school but profiles best as a true five-tool center fielder at the next level. He has blazing speed which will cover the field well, and his strong arm should make him a comfortably plus defender. At the plate, Griffin has immense raw power that could translate to 60-grade game power by the time he matures into his frame.
The power is the leading tool at the dish, but Griffin should be an average contact hitter at the plate. There’s some swing-and-miss potential in his swing to work out, but Griffin would be the top prospect in the Royals farm system by a sizeable margin and should become a locked-and-loaded top-50 prospect in baseball, at least.
Round CB-A, Pick 6 (39 Overall): RHP Drew Beam, Tennessee
Beam has a solid 6-4 frame and lives on a fastball/curveball combination. He’s a safe arm that projects into at least the back end of a big-league rotation. There’s potential for much more as he continues to refine his arsenal and develop. Beam uses a long arm action that offers projection for more velocity. As it stands now, Beam sits in the mid-90s but there’s an upper-90s upside there. The largest knock on Beam may be his arsenal. Although the fastball and curveball are high-spin offerings with above-average or even plus upside, there isn’t much behind them. Beam throws a below-average changeup that remains a work in progress. He also doesn’t have much for pure east-south movement and adding a slider could help to raise his ceiling even more.
Round 2, Pick 2 (41 Overall): RHP Thatcher Hurd, Louisiana State
Entering the 2024 season, Hurd had top five upside. He hit the upper-90s and even triple digits over the offseason. The arsenal is electric, featuring a plus slider with double-plus potential. He pairs that with a 60-grade curveball. Those two pitches along with the potential for an upper 90s fastball make Hurd’s stuff some of the most projectable in the draft class. Unfortunately, that electric stuff comes with less-than-stellar command. Thus far in 2024, Hurd has walked 20 batters in 33.0 IP. His ERA on the season is sky-high at 6.82. It’s a raw profile with a sky-high ceiling but with serious risk.
Round 3, Pick 2 (76 Overall): SS Trey Snider, Liberty North (MO)
Snyder is a local product, committed to play at Tennessee next season. He profiles as a shortstop currently, but his raw power potential could make him a strong fit at third base in the future. He has loud power, hitting 90+ average exit velocity with regularity. As he continues to mature, there isn’t a whole lot more projection remaining in his 6-2 frame. Despite that, finding more lift in the baseball, especially to the pull side, could make him an offensive force at the big league level. His swing mechanics are easy, even if the timing can be inconsistent. He has quiet hands and can be quick to the baseball. It’s a raw profile, of course, but well worth it in the third round here.
Round 4, Pick 2 (105 Overall): RHP Aiden May, Oregon State
May has a quick, whippy short arm action that has potential to generate excellent fastball velocity. He’s a serious injury risk, already off of one Tommy John Surgery. He’s also suffered from some shoulder soreness in 2024. That injury concern could limit the starter upside, but he profiles extremely well in the bullpen should he make that move eventually. In all this season, May has made nine starts, pitching 46.0 innings. He’s pitched to a 3.13 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 14 walks. The command isn’t elite, but good enough to be average at the next level. May mixes in a fastball, slider, and changeup. The slider is a sweeper in the mid-80s and should do great at missing bats in the pro ranks.
Round 5, Pick 2 (138 Overall): LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson
Smith doesn’t offer much more projection, already at 6-2, 200 pounds. However, he’s got a very deceptive delivery that impacts the hitter’s timing and makes him difficult to pick up. That deception, alongside a smooth and easy delivery, gives Smith promising upside as a pro. His mid-90s fastball can be squared up currently. It’s spun well, but needs better shape and consistency to be effective in the upper minors and into the big leagues. There’s some inconsistent arm-side run to the pitch that give it above-average potential. Smith also mixes in a slider and a changeup.
Despite the potential in his arsenal, Smith struggles with command and allows far too many free passes. So far this season, he’s pitched to a 3.58 ERA over 32.2 IP. He’s struck out 46 but walked 20 in the process. It’s a bit of a raw profile for a college sophomore, but the risk could be worth the reward if it all clicks as a pro.
