If there was a list of guys that I think are underrated in the Royals’ organization, Cerantola would be the headliner. Over the last several seasons we have seen the Royals draft a lot of pitchers and struggle with the development of their fastball. This has never been a struggle for Cerantola, who has always had a great fastball with good ride and velocity since being drafted out of Mississippi State. He has the intangibles that you look for from an MLB pitcher, including standing at 6’5/225 which helps him throw with high velocity and get great spin on all his pitches. He is on the older side of prospects at 24 years old, but he just reached Triple-A Omaha, and his development shouldn’t be affected by his age.

How effective is his pitch mix?

Cerantola has four offerings and has touched 100 MPH with his 4-seam fastball, but typically sits around 96 MPH. He pairs the fastball with a few off-speed offerings, the best of which is a wicked curveball that sits low to mid 80s, has great spin, and breaks hard. The fastball and curve are his best pitches, but he also offers a solid slider that causes a lot of batters to chase, and a changeup that is great against lefties when located well.

The stuff has always been there with Cerantola, the question for him since getting drafted has been command of his pitches. He has struggled to find the zone, with a high walk rate throughout his career. He also tends to leave his changeup and slider up in the zone. While this is concerning, there has been a good bit of improvement from him with the command while keeping his velocity and spin rate up. There is still some work to be done with the control, but his improvements have reflected this season with some eye-popping stats and a promotion to Omaha in early August.

This video is short but can help you get a better feel for Cerantola’s delivery and the pitches that he offers, and also helps you see some of the command issues.

How has he fared in 2024?

To start this year, Cerantola found himself in Double-A Northwest Arkansas (NWA) where he found success with a 2.78 ERA over 58.1 innings and a whopping 12.50 K/9! On the flip side, he had a 6.03 BB/9 in NWA which is well above league average and leaves much room for improvement. There is still plenty to like, and a lot of the advanced metrics suggest that he will have even more success in the future. In NWA his WHIP was about average at 1.32, but he gave up a sub 5.5 H/9 which would be one of the lowest ever in an MLB season. For more perspective, the MLB record for H/9 over a career is held by Nolan Ryan at 6.5. If he kept this up over his career, it would be an MLB record…by a full point. He has also offered a sub-1 HR/9 which is well below league average.

Despite being a RHP, Cerantola has been known for dominance against lefties, holding them to a sub .500 OPS in 2023. In 2024 he has held them to a .156 AVG with 20 Ks over 17.2 innings. It’s rare to see a RHP be this effective against left-handed batters, and this should only improve as he gets a better feel for his changeup. His numbers against righties were worse, allowing almost a .250 average in 2023. However, as he has gotten a better feel for his slider, he has gotten that down to about .175, which shows he can be effective in nearly every situation.

Cerantola receives a midseason promotion to Omaha

Since his move to Omaha, he has been nails (albeit in a very small sample size) which has really shown what he can bring to the table. Since being called up to Omaha, he has a 1.23 ERA with a WHIP of 0.82. Over his 7 innings, he has 10 Ks to 2 BBs and has only allowed 4 hits. The only run he has allowed was off a home run. Outside of that one at-bat, he has been electric and a quality arm out of the pen for the Storm Chasers. As I mentioned before, the walks and command have been the biggest problem, but when you look more into Cerantola’s production and how he plays, you can see he might be closer to being a quality relief pitcher than many people think.

What’s next for him in 2025?

Cerantola projects as a guy that can come in during high-leverage situations to get strikeouts and bring some heat. This is something the Royals haven’t been able to find much out of their bullpen. There is a long list of guys the Royals have used as power arms in the pen, including Josh Staumont, Angel Zerpa, Carlos Hernandez and John McMillan. All these guys have had bumpy rides in the majors at best and have struggled to find a role. Recently, the Royals made a move for Lucas Erceg to be the power arm out of the pen that they have been looking for. Ideally, this is the role we would see Cerantola play when he makes it to the majors, but I think he’s more similar to Kris Bubic: the guy who comes in when the team needs strikeouts and to get out of a jam near the end of the game. While Cerantola isn’t there yet, I have not heard his name mentioned nearly enough as a potential major contributor down the line.

In my eyes, the hope is to see Cerantola in the majors next year at some point and find a role with the major league team. If he continues to perform at this rate, he could be a sneaky contender to make the opening-day roster, although unlikely. He will need to work on repeating his delivery to get some more deception, as well as better command so he isn’t continuing to give up free bases. But I see no reason to think this won’t improve as the organization has really pushed the “pound the zone” and “throw strikes” message from the top down. Guys like Kris Bubic, Carlos Hernandez, James McArthur, and Alec Marsh are all examples of players that have put the “pound the zone” message into practice and experienced improvements. I think Cerantola is likely higher on the organization’s board than he is in the media, and I really look forward to seeing how they help him continue to improve and build upon his success in Omaha.

Image credit: Northwest Arkansas Naturals