Preston Farr/Farm to Fountains’ Scouting Grades:
Hit: 30/55
Game Power: 30/50
Raw Power: 30/50
Glove: 45/50
Speed: 45/45
Arm: 45/45
Background
Spencer Nivens was drafted in the 5th round of the 2023 MLB Draft out of Missouri State University. He was born in Columbia, MO, and played for Rock Bridge High School, adding him to the list of Royals’ prospects that are “homegrown”. He was named a Collegiate Baseball Freshman All-American in 2022 and was the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year in 2023. He boasts a career line of .343/.440/.594 with a 1.034 OPS in two collegiate seasons.
What can we learn from his debut season in 2023?
Nivens struggled to get the bat going in his first professional season, slashing .202/.338/.316 in 139 plate appearances. This is not particularly abnormal for a player’s first taste of professional ball, especially in a limited sample size. His .316 slugging percentage showed an overall lack of power as he only tallied seven doubles and two home runs on the season. However, he showed a disciplined approach at the plate, drawing 24 walks while only striking out 22 times. He ended his season in Low-A Columbia, and it was likely assumed he would begin the 2024 season there.
What went well in 2024?
2024 season stats (A+): .243/.333/.475, .808 OPS, 20 HR, 58 RBIs, 7 SB, 26.9 K%, 11.7 BB%
It may have been a surprise to some that Nivens started the 2024 season in High-A Quad Cities despite the lack of production in 2023. The Royals believed that Nivens was ready for the jump, but it took an extended period for Nivens to find his groove with the River Bandits.
Month-by-month breakdown:
April: .158/.346/.211, .557 OPS
May: .042/.179/.063, .242 OPS
June: .200/.289/.325, .614 OPS
July: .263/.337/.434, .771 OPS
August: .352/.427/.806, .1.233 OPS
September: .296/.333/.630, .963
The growth that Nivens experienced from May to August cannot be overstated. He consistently got better each month until he went absolutely nuclear last month. He unsurprisingly won the Midwest League Player of the Month for August and was also announced as the Midwest League Player of the Week for the first week of September. He is on a tear that no one in all levels of baseball has matched:
He can do it with the glove too:
It has been a special season for Nivens, and a clear example that things can develop and “click” for players during the middle of a season. He also tapped into a power profile that has exceeded expectations. Even with his strikeout numbers a bit higher than you’d like to see, his on-base ability is still plenty strong. This stretch of strong play catapulted him into the Royals’ top 30 prospect list at MLB Pipeline’s 2024 midseason update, a first-time distinction for him since joining the organization. Nivens is creating some serious momentum heading into 2025.
What can we expect from him in 2025?
Nivens has made a strong case to begin the 2025 season in Double-A NW Arkansas. The Royals lack outfield depth throughout the organization, especially prospects with Nivens’ power potential, and may want to get an early look at him against stronger competition. I expect him to spend nearly the whole season in Double-A in an attempt to put a productive campaign together from beginning to end. Nivens has certainly proven that his ceiling can be higher than almost anyone.
Image credit: Quad Cities River Bandits
