Royals Playoff Matchups: The Houston Astros

The Kansas City Royals draw closer to the end of the 2024 regular season. The season will wrap up on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves. The team’s first playoff series is set to kick off on Tuesday, October 1. That three-game series will run from Tuesday through Thursday with an opponent to be determined. After the Royals clinched a postseason berth on Friday, all that’s left now is to determine who their opponent will be in the Wild Card Round. That seeding will depend on how the final two games go for the Royals and the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers currently lead the Royals by one game for the American League’s fifth seed. If the Royals tie or finish ahead of the Tigers, they’ll claim the fifth seed and play Baltimore in the Wild Card Round. As the sixth seed, Kansas City would head to Houston to face off against the Astros. How would the Astros match up against these Royals?

A closer look at a potential Houston Astros playoff match-up for the Royals

The Royals played two series against the Astros in 2024 and neither series really gives an accurate picture of how these two teams match up against one another. The season’s first series was a sweep for Kansas City in early April. At that time, the Astros were extremely shorthanded with many key players on the injured list. The second series of 2024 took place in late August. The first game of that series saw Vinnie Pasquantino and Lucas Erceg get injured. They’d both miss the remainder of the series with the Royals dropping all four games. The result is a 3-4 record against Houston in 2024.

It should be a series of great starting pitcher matchups, should the Royals head to Houston. The Royals rank second in the Major Leagues with a 3.56 starter’s ERA this season. Houston ranks ninth at 3.81. Bullpen ERA tells a different story, however. The Astros rank again ninth in the Majors in reliever ERA this season. The Royals rank down at 21st. In the month of September alone, however, those marks are flipped. The Royals ranked ninth in reliever ERA in September and the Astros ranked 21st. Kansas City will need that September sample to carry over to make an October run, but the team’s starters are good enough to limit the need in the Wild Card Round.

The Royals are starting Cole Ragans in Game One, with Seth Lugo heading to the mound in either a must-win or a series-clinching game two. For the Astros, Framber Valdez was dominant over seven innings against the Royals earlier this season. Hunter Brown made his major league debut against Kansas City and struggled, but settled in much more over the back half of the season. The largest disadvantage for the Royals is the lefties in the Houston rotation. The Royals have an 85 wRC+ against LHP this season, good for 26th in baseball.

The Astros have been working through injuries to outfielders Yordan Alvarez and Chas McCormick in recent weeks. McCormick suffered a fractured hand in early September and is a potential return candidate for the upcoming Wild Card series against Kansas City. Yordan Alvarez injured his knee last week against Los Angeles and seems questionable to return for a Wild Card series as well. Although Houston is still playing Alvarez’s status as up in the air, it would seem highly unlikely for him to miss a key postseason series after sitting nearly all of the last week to rest the knee.

For the Royals, the return of Vinnie Pasquantino seems imminent. In a since-deleted tweet, Pasquantino posted an eye and smirk emoji on Friday. That comes alongside reports that Pasquantino has been hitting the ball in batting practice and is set for a live at-bat against Will Smith this weekend. His return would be a serious boost to a Kansas City lineup that has struggled ever since the first baseman landed on the injured list in late August. Even if Pasquantino is rusty, the emotional impact his return to the lineup could offer would be massive. Returning from injury so ahead of schedule would almost certainly put Pasquantino in line to be the team’s designated hitter for the playoff series ahead.

The make-or-break moments in the looming playoff series will be those players beyond the team’s Superstars. In playoff moments, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are bound to impact the game. Both did so in each of the two series these teams played in the regular season. Alvarez had four hits in the first game of the April series and Kansas City came away victorious anyway. In each of the team’s four losses later in the year, they came at the hands of the rest of the Houston lineup.

In game one, Jason Heyward, Mauricio Dubon, and Zach Dezenzo contributed all five RBI from the Houston lineup. For game two, it was Ben Gamel and Jeremy Pena. Games three and four were Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Jon Singleton. In the four game series, Houston scored 21 runs and just three were runs knocked in from Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, or Alvarez. The Royals have to be willing to let a player like Alvarez get on base as long as they limit the damage those hitters behind him can do. Yordan Alvarez on base is a much better outcome than Yordan Alvarez hitting the ball into the gap or over the fence for runs.

The Astros’ best-case scenario in the looming series is one in which they quickly get to the Kansas City bullpen. If the Royals end up relying on their bullpen for more than two or three innings, the outlook begins to look more dire. Despite the Royals’ bullpen improvements over the back half of the season, the team’s strength in October lies in their starting rotation taking over the game and giving the offense a chance to get just enough. With that focus in mind, the team can still win despite Kansas City’s dominant rotation simply by making the rest of the Kansas City lineup beat them.

Should Vinnie Pasquantino return, it makes that task more difficult than simply limiting Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. In the season’s first Houston series, Witt Jr. and Pasquantino combined for 14 RBI. Pasquantino had five RBI in game two and three in game three. Witt had four hits and five RBI in game three. For much of September, the Royals’ offense struggled. With Pasquantino injured and Witt slumping, it gave a clear blueprint for postseason clubs: make that continue. October is where the Stars come to shine, and Houston’s clear path to victory will be in neutralizing the impact of the two young stars in the Kansas City lineup.