The Royals wrapped up their first playoff series in almost a decade on Wednesday with two wins and a sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore. On the back of some elite pitching from Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and the bullpen, who came out and only allowed a single run in the two games, the Royals will move on to the ALDS to face the Yankees on Saturday. The Royals have played 2 series against the Yankees this season and are 2-5 against them in 2024, but both teams have made changes since they last played in September.
With the Royals riding the momentum of the first series, we should be primed for a great series this week. The Yankees have 37 runs on the Royals over 7 games, 3 of which were double digits, and they had 10 HRs in that span. They were able to get to the Royals bullpen late in games. Royals starters had real success against the Yankees, but the struggles came later in the games for Kansas City. Both teams have improved since and have become different teams since they last met, and I took a look at how they will face up this weekend.
The Yankees’ offense
The Yankees have one of the most dynamic offenses in baseball studded with several elite hitters at the heart of the order. The Yankees offense has logged insane numbers being 3rd in runs scored, 3rd in OPS, 1st in HRs, 4th in slugging, 1st in BBs, and 6th in total bases. The lineup has a plethora of stars including Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, and several other key names contributing to their success. The team wins with power at the plate and is one of the best teams capitalizing on bad pitches. Royals’ pitchers will need precision in the zone to hold down the elite hitters in this Yankees offense in order to find success in the series.
The offense for the Yankees has an elite heart of the order and is headlined by Aaron Judge who has been the best hitter in all of baseball this year, putting up unreal numbers. Batting out of the 3 hole, he is leading the league in HRs (58), OBP (.458), OPS (1.159), BBs (133), RBIs (144) and WAR (10.8). Judge is in line to win the AL MVP and the numbers he has put up are hard to believe. Holding him down is a near impossible task that has plagued every team in the MLB this year and will give the Royals pitchers a real test.
Judge is not the only star in this offense; he is preceded in the order by Juan Soto who is also having a career year with his best season since leaving Washington in 2022. Soto has hit 2nd in the order almost all year and has also put up superstar numbers at the plate. He stands 2nd in runs, 4th in HRs, 6th in RBIs, 2nd in walks, 2nd in OBP, 4th in slugging and 3rd in OPS. Soto is a real tough out at the plate; he gets in a low stance and has some of the best plate vision and discipline in the game. He leads the league in BB% and is 79th percentile in K%. He will put the ball in play but is also willing to take his base if you give it to him, giving the Royals pitchers yet another true test in the middle of the order.
The biggest flaw for the Yankees this year has been getting production outside of Soto and Judge. The rest of the team is solid, but the offense has sputtered at times outside of those two and has held them back this year. The duo of Judge and Soto accounted for 323 of the 835 wRC this season for the Yankees which is 38.7%, the highest percentage for any duo in baseball. Without Aaron Judge the Yankees would have a .731 OPS which would take them from the 3rd best team OPS down to 9th in the MLB. Mid-season the Yankees added Jazz Chisholm who has helped boost the middle of the order with his .825 OPS since joining the team as well.
One of the biggest struggles all year for the Yankees has been finding a consistent leadoff hitter who can get on base before Soto and Judge to get them more guys to drive home. The leadoff spot for the Yankees has ranked 24th in OBP, and 26th in OPS, and has resulted in them having a lot of movement in that spot this season for them. But in September the Yankees found some consistency in that spot with Gleyber Torres who hit .333/.387/.472 in September and was a great boost to the Yankees offense down the stretch.
The middle of the order brings guys like Giancarlo Stanton who has been one of the best DH sluggers in the MLB for several years, and other names like Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. who have had quality seasons and have the potential to make something happen at the plate. Another thing to give Royals fans some hope is that Aaron Judge has had down numbers in the playoffs with .211/.310/.462 spits in the postseason. Royals pitching has been stellar as of late and they will be handed a tall task of holding down one of the best offenses in the MLB.
The Royals’ offense
The key for the Royals offense will be timely hitting, which had been a strength to start the season but quickly became a weakness down the stretch and will be the primary concern. Hitting with RISP will be essential for the Royals to have success against the Yankees this weekend and the hope is they will bounce back to mid-season form. Getting Vinnie Pasquantino back from the IL and him getting 2 games under his belt to get a feel for the game should help this cause and will be a big help for the Royals in the upcoming games.
The Royals offense is obviously led by Bobby Witt Jr. who was huge for the team in the series against the Orioles and has been one of the best players in all of baseball in 2024. Witt will likely finish in 2nd in AL MVP votes and is the staple of the Royals offense. Witt leads the league in avg, 6th in OBP, 3rd in slugging, 4th in OPS, 2nd in WAR, 3rd in XBH, and is the first SS to have multiple 30 HR, 30 SB seasons… He’s 24. His success has pulled the Royals offense forward and has made him one of the best players in all of baseball and will be a key factor to the Royals success.
Outside of Bobby, there are a few other big-time hitters for the Royals including two RBI machines in Vinnie and Salvy right behind him. The team has really struggled lately with runners in scoring position and those two guys will be a key factor in the Royals offense improving. The Royals have struggled more against off-speed pitches recently. The Yankees have several pitchers who are capable of some wipeout pitches, as an offense if the Royals can lay off of them and wait for their pitch and put the ball in play, I like their chances. I would love to see the Royals tag the Yankees starters early as the bullpen for the Yanks has been dominant down the stretch and will make it tough for the Royals to come back.
The Royals have also had major struggles with their leadoff spot, rotating several names, including Massey, Pham, and Garcia. Massey hit leadoff in both games against the Orioles and had leadoff hits in both games, one of which resulted in him scoring a run. Q likes to mix and match based on the pitching matchup, so I expect to see some shifting around of the lineup throughout the series based on who they play. The back end of the lineup has struggled and getting some production out of them in this series would put the Royals in a great spot.
Yankees’ Pitching
The most likely rotation we will see from the Yankees will be Cole, Rodon, Schmidt to start the series with Luis Gil’s struggles with command and velocity lately. Cole has been a dominant pitcher in the past but has been hittable this year with a 3.41 ERA and a WHIP of 1.13. The starters for the Yankees have been maybe the weakest part of the team for them throughout the year and if the Royals want to get to them, they have to take advantage early in the game. Yankees starters as a whole rank 11th in ERA with 3.85 on the year. Where the bullpen sits at 6th with a 3.62 ERA.
There isn’t really a main go-to guy in the Yankees bullpen despite the way that Clay Holmes started the year with a very dominant stretch closing games The Royals were able to tag him earlier in the year and force a blown save. The Yankees have since switched to Luke Weaver as their closer who has had a ton of success at the end of the season. In the last 17 games Weaver has pitched for the Yankees he has only given up runs in one of those games, showing his consistency on the mound. While not always in save opportunities, the Royals can likely expect him to be the Yankees closer in this series.
The Royals spent the earlier part of the year coming back late in games and had a habit of waiting until the end of games to make their comeback. This will be tough against the Yankees pen which has been hot and really can take care of business. The Royals cannot come into these games slow and will absolutely have to take advantage of Yankees starters early in games for their best chance to win the series.
Royals’ Pitching
Kansas City has almost the opposite situation, where the starters for the Royals have been dominant, and the bullpen has been shaky all year. You can expect to see a Royals starting rotation of Wacha, Ragans, and Lugo, all three of which have been excellent in 2024. Ragans and Lugo are both Cy Young candidates and with Wacha’s success late in the season there is no reason to think that he will slow down in the postseason.
Ragans ranks 12th in the MLB in ERA (3.14) and is 5th in strikeouts pitching as the ACE for the Royals this year. Ragans is headlined by a great fastball that pairs with a great changeup that has been maybe his best pitch. He pairs this with a hard slider, a cutter to keep the barrel off the ball and a curve that has some of the best break in baseball. Ragans has great run value on all of his pitches and the fastball comes with great velocity as well, keeping hitters off balance. Coming off a great start in Baltimore the hope is he will be able to have another good 5-6 innings against the Yankees.
Seth Lugo has been one of the biggest surprises of the season in the entire MLB, he is 10th in ERA (3.0) and is second in the MLB in total innings pitched, something that has been immensely valuable to the Royals this year. Lugo has a huge pitch mix with 9 pitches logged on statcast, but I’ve heard as many as 13 are thrown consistently. His elite ability to keep hitters off-balance will be important to holding down the Yankees offense early.
Wacha is a changeup first pitcher who forces soft contact at an elite rate and has some of the best off-speed stuff in the game. Wacha ranks 99th percentile in off-speed run value, which makes it hard for hitters to get the barrel on the ball and results in a lot of soft contact and ground outs. Wacha has given up 8 runs over his last 5 starts and a total of 27.2 innings. He will look to continue this in October as he will likely open the series for Kansas City.
A crazy stat I found looking into the Yankees and Royals was the stats of Yankees star players vs. the Royals starters. If you take every at bat from Judge, Chisholm, Stanton, Volpe, Soto and Torres when facing any of Lugo, Ragans or Wacha throughout their careers, they are batting 21 for 146 which is an abysmal average of .148.
The pen for Kansas City has been concerning at times but has really locked things down over the last month or so. The bullpen has yet to allow a run in the playoffs and was great in September which was a great change of pace from the inconsistency early in the season. But the Yankees are not the Orioles, and their offense has proven to be lethal late in games, so the Royals need to do their best to not lean on them to keep them alive like they did in the first series.
The addition of Lucas Erceg at the deadline has been game changing for Kansas City giving them a true lock down arm out of the bullpen. Erceg has been dominant out of the pen for Kansas City late in the season, only giving up 1 run in his last 11 outings. Outside of him the Royals got Schreiber and Bubic back from the IL and good bounce backs from Angel Zerpa and Sam Long have been game changing from Kansas City since September. If the bullpen can keep up some of the success they have had, Kansas City will have a very good chance in this series.
Breakdown
I look forward to this series, and I really feel it will be closer than many expect. The Yankees have superstars at the plate and on the field and while many may think the Royals will be outmatched, I don’t think that is the case. In my mind, this series comes down to two key factors: the Royals bats have to wake up and the offense has to come early. The Royals pen plays better with a lead and the bats have been quiet. If Yankees starters are on point this could be a rough one for the Royals, but we have seen the bats really come alive at times this season, and if they can wake up, we are in for a fun week. I do expect a good series, and the Royals’ pitching should keep games close and give the Royals a chance. The most exciting season Kansas City has had in almost a decade will continue Saturday, and I think I speak for everyone when I say that I’m looking forward to this week.