Preston Farr/Farm to Fountains’ Scouting Grades:
Hit: 40/55
Raw Power: 60/60
Game Power: 50/55
Glove: 40/55
Arm: 50/55
Speed: 45/40
Background
Mitchell was drafted by the Royals with the 8th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft to much criticism. He was ranked as the No. 14 overall prospect when drafted, causing many people to think the Royals reached for the pick, despite signing Mitchell below slot value. Many Royals fans thought the team should invest their draft capital in more “MLB-ready” prospects who could help the team sooner. Mitchell did, however, come with plenty of pedigree as the back-to-back Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Texas. Despite a potentially longer road to the big leagues, the Royals’ front office fell in love with Mitchell and his incredible potential, which has paid dividends so far.
What did we learn in a very limited sample size in 2023?
After being drafted in July 2023, Mitchell only appeared in 13 games in the Arizona Complex League for the rest of the 2023 season. Despite the small sample size of 52 plate appearances, some trends emerged for the then-18-year-old catcher that would carry into 2024. He carried an absurd 32.7 BB%, juxtaposed by a fairly high 26.9 K%. He also struggled to get much going with the bat, slashing .147/.423/.176 with only one extra-base hit. The high walk and strikeout rates continued into 2024, but thankfully for the Royals, Mitchell found more success with the bat and showed some serious power to round out his game.
What went well in 2024?
2024 season stats (Low-A): .238/.376/.439, .815 OPS, 18 HR, 50 RBI, 25 SB, 30.5 K%, 17.0 BB%
*Mitchell also earned 20 plate appearances in High-A at the tail-end of the season.
The 2024 season went about as well as Mitchell could have hoped, as he made major strides at the plate compared to his 2023 output. He made much better contact, generating more of the power that showed in high school. He hit much better for average, though his batting average slowly decreased as the season wore on. His walk and strikeout rates continued to stand out, with positive numbers for the former and less-than-ideal numbers for the latter. He wasn’t known for his speed, but he managed to swipe 25 bags for the Fireflies, adding even more value to his profile.
Mitchell has one of the smoothest swings you’ll see, and the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He hits the ball well over 400 ft. with ease and ended the season tied for 4th in the Royals’ farm system with 18 home runs. He has also been praised for his defensive ability behind the plate and has a cannon for an arm to go with it.
Multiple awards went to Mitchell for his outstanding 2024 season: Carolina League Post-Season All-Star, Baseball America Low Class A All-Star, and the Royals’ George Brett Hitter of the Year. He ended the season as the leader in wRC+ among Royals’ minor leaguers at 141 and stands as the #2 prospect in the system and #51 among all minor leaguers.
What can we expect in 2025?
There is a lot to be excited about for Mitchell heading into next season and I expect him to only build upon his great 2024 season. One area of improvement would be to lower his strikeout rate, especially while he is in the lower levels of the minors and might be facing some inexperienced pitching. A 30.5 K% feels different in Low-A Columbia compared to Triple-A Omaha. I would also like to see him improve upon his gap-to-gap power, as he only notched 16 doubles and 3 triples in 2024. This will only help to round out his impressive profile as a hitter.
I imagine Mitchell will begin the 2025 season in High-A Quad Cities where he finished in 2024. There should be no rush to speed up his development as he only turned 20 in August. I think it is very possible he could end 2025 in Double-A Northwest Arkansas but would understand him staying in Quad Cities for the entirety of 2025 as he works on his swing-and-miss inconsistencies. The ceiling is incredibly high for Mitchell, and I wonder if he isn’t just a few feet above the floorboards as we speak.
