Photo credit: AP Photo/David Zalubowski

The Royals offseason is up and running, with free agents free to sign with teams as early as later today. For the Royals, the moves have already started to a degree. The team announced they declined a team option for infielder Adam Frazier. In larger news, they also announced a three-year contract extension for starter Michael Wacha that includes a fourth-year club option. Some other moves have occurred as well. Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe both took their player options and remain under team control for 2025. Reliever Josh Taylor elected free agency after being outrighted and in a corresponding move the Royals added Evan Sisk to the 40-man roster. That move prevented Sisk from opting for Minor League free agency.

In all, it’s been about what you’d expect for Kansas City so far. Wacha was perhaps the largest question mark of the offseason. With that now squared away, the front office can turn sights to their offseason goals. General Manager J.J. Picollo has stated a desire for the team to add a leadoff hitter and more production in the middle of their lineup. Both of those quests should be easier now with Wacha in tow. For this exercise, we will assume the role of Picollo and take over the Kansas City offseason from this point forward. Which free agents should be of interest for the Royals? Are there any trades that make sense?

MLB Rule 5 Protection Deadline – Nov 19, 2024

The first looming deadline for the Royals should be November 19. That’s the Qualifying Offer Deadline for players, and also the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster. With Wacha under contract, Kansas City won’t have any qualifying offers awaiting at the deadline. They will have some 40-man decisions to make, however. The Royals have a handful of Rule 5 eligible prospects this winter that need protecting. Sisk was one and is already protected. In our mock offseason, we will protect four more. Last offseason, Kansas City protected just two players — RHP Will Klein and OF Tyler Gentry. With more roster flexibility this winter, the team can add a few more players.

Players added to the 40-man Roster:

LHP Noah Cameron: Cameron seems like the shoo-in this offseason. He had a standout 2024 season with both Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. His 2.32 ERA across nine starts with the Storm Chasers was impressive, and he showed off great strikeout stuff and command. He’s a candidate to pitch out of the rotation as early as Opening Day.

RHP Luinder Avila: Avila isn’t as close to the major leagues as Cameron before him. He is, however, going to be gravely in danger of being selected in the Rule 5 draft if left unprotected. The pure stuff in his arsenal is better than Matt Sauer’s when he was selected last winter by Kansas City. Although Avila spent most of the year in Double-A and struggled with injury, he’s shown up big time in this year’s Fall League. We have to protect him here to keep him in the system.

RHP Chandler Champlain: We continue to be pitcher heavy in our additions here, but it will help later in free agency. Champlain didn’t look quite as sharp in 2024 as he did the year prior. His 5.61 ERA for Omaha wasn’t up to his normal standards. Despite that, however, there were plenty of things to like as well. Champlain saw his strikeouts trend very down after moving up a level, but the underlying metrics on his arsenal look like they’ll play in a big league bullpen. Good spin rates and shape are the draw here, and we’re adding Champlain as a likely bullpen piece for the upcoming 2024 season.

RHP Eric Cerantola: Cerantola’s strikeout stuff is too good to let go unprotected. With such poor command, it’s not as certain he’d be selected if left unprotected. However, he pitched in Omaha last season and is knocking on the door to the big leagues already. He posted a 31.3% strikeout rate with Triple-A Omaha this season. Like Champlain, we’re protecting him here as a bullpen piece for the upcoming season. In protecting both Champlain and Cerantola, it offers some high upside depth pieces to fall in behind our current bullpen of Hunter Harvey, Kris Bubic, and Lucas Erceg.

Notable players left off the 40-man roster:

OF John Rave: Rave is interesting, and there’s a case to be made for him on the 40-man roster. Unfortunately, with the upcoming plans to add to the lineup in free agency, it makes Rave less necessary. The lineup isn’t in need of prospect infusion. We need proven big league talent for those spots, so we’ve left Rave off. There’s a good chance that he may get chosen in the Rule 5 draft, but that’s a risk we’re willing to take. Outfield prospects in Northwest Arkansas such as Diego Hernandez can help shore up depth in Omaha.

RHP Beck Way: Way is an intriguing bullpen arm. He started to settle in as a great relief option in mid-2023 and hasn’t looked back yet. Unfortunately, he doesn’t quite have the command that Champlain offers or the strikeout stuff that Cerantola possesses. He’s somewhere in the middle of those two arms and a clear tier lower. For that reason, we’re risking him here but there’s a good chance he clears the Rule 5 draft unselected.

2B/LF Peyton Wilson: Wilson likely isn’t going anywhere if left unprotected. He’s not ready for the Major Leagues after spending a second full season in Double-A. Javier Vaz has passed him up in the prospect pecking order. They both fill that second base / left field role and Vaz looks far more likely to succeed in the major leagues so far. Wilson has plenty of tools but is yet to truly carve out a path forward to notable big league action.

MLB Non-Tender Deadline – Nov. 22, 2024

With the 40-man additions above, the roster now sits at 38. There are some non-tender candidates, but none really urgently so. With two open spots, it seems plausible the Royals do not non-tender anyone this winter. All arbitration candidates should have manageable salaries. Perhaps Carlos Hernández makes some sense here, but there isn’t any reason to give up on him at this point. He showed some improvements over the back half of last season.

The only true non-tender candidates are pre-arb minor leaguers. First baseman Nick Pratto was unable to get the call even after the Vinnie Pasquantino injury last August. Neither Drew Waters nor Nelson Velázquez were able to stick in the outfield despite how poor the corner outfielders produced at times in 2024. All three of those players seem like potential non-tender candidates. Others, such as Jonathan Bowlan and Steven Cruz could make some sense as well. However, with two open 40-man roster spots already, we’re not going to non-tender anyone. As free agent signings or trades occur, we can designate players for assignment to clear any space we need.

Free Agency – Opens Nov 4, 2024 at 5pm EST

OF Harrison Bader: One-year, $6 million

We’re opening free agency with a bit of a “Hampson/Frazier”-esque move. Bader isn’t a starter for us in 2025, but offers some important defensive depth in the outfield. He’s one of the best defenders available in free agency this winter and gives us important depth behind Kyle Isbel in center field. 2021 was the last time we saw Bader hit for better than league average, but that upside still exists somewhere. He’s 29 years old with plenty left in the tank and helps to shore up our bench and open free agency.

OF Randal Grichuk: Two-years, $8 million (Player Option for year two)

Grichuk is the second outfielder in as many signings so far. He was impressive last season for the Diamondbacks, grading out very well in many of the underlying metrics you’d like to see. The result was a fantastic .298/.348/.528 slash line with 12 home runs. Although it’s not likely to see Grichuk repeat his career year in 2025, he still projects to be better than league average next season. His 47.6% hard-hit rate gives the Royals some added pop down the lineup. He has a good arm with a bit better range than we’ve seen from either Hunter Renfroe or MJ Melendez. Grichuk slashed .319/.386/.528 against lefties in 2024 and offers a perfect platoon match for Melendez at worst.

INF Ha-Seong Kim: Four-years, $55 million

Kim becomes our biggest signing of the offseason. He plays three infield positions and offers flexibility that the lineup could use. Michael Massey seems cemented at second base for the forseeable future, but Kim offers an excellent backup plan should injuries crop back up. We’re signing Kim to play third base every day. He last played there in 2023 when he was worth 3 DRS and 2 OAA. He’s a plus defender at all three positions and will be an excellent addition as a leadoff hitter. Kim had an 18.6% Chase Rate (98th percentile) and 15.9% Whiff Rate (92nd percentile) in 2024. His 12.3% walk rate was among the best in the league and his sprint speed is above-average as well. Kim will be on base ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino without question.

He is sidelined with injury, however. Kim will likely miss time until late May. In the meantime, Maikel Garcia will resume his third base duties before transitioning to more of a utility role once Kim returns from injury.

RHP José Leclerc: Two-years, $10 million

The bullpen has a lot of interesting pieces heading into next season. Despite those, it seems likely that the Royals will still entertain some free agent depth pieces to round out the ‘pen. José Leclerc has long been a name of note for the Rangers. He’s now pitched in eight big league seasons and enters free agency set to turn 31 in December. He had a 4.32 ERA in 2024 — his worst in a season since 2020. Beyond the ERA, however, there are a lot of promising signs that make Leclerc interesting. He finished the year with a 30.9% strikeout rate. His Baseball Savant page offers a lot of red, including a 36.0% Whiff% (96th percentile) and a 30.7% Hard-Hit Rate (96th percentile). He misses a lot of bats and doesn’t give up any hard contact. That should suit the Royals’ bullpen well alongside Lucas Erceg, Kris Bubic, and Hunter Harvey.

The lay of the land after free-agency

We’ve added four players via free agency and all four will go right onto the 40-man roster. We entered free agency with just two 40-man roster spots, meaning we have to clear two spots to make space for our new additions. With Grichuk added, we’ve designated Drew Waters for assignment. Waters has long been an interesting prospect with some good power upside. Sadly, he hasn’t been able to get past some gnarly swing-and-miss concerns and likely clears waivers to remain in the organization.

Needing to clear at least one more space, we’ve designated Jonathan Bowlan for assignment following the signing of José Leclerc. Bowlan has long been a top prospect for the Royals, but an untimely Tommy John Surgery changed the entire course of his career trajectory. He’s now 27 years old and pitched to a 4.67 ERA with Triple-A Omaha last season. He’s a relief option if at all at this stage, and with too many others ahead of him on that totem pole, he’s become a disposable option.

This sets our 40-man roster at exactly 40 heading into the Winter Meetings. We won’t be clearing space for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Instead, we’ve chosen to cement our 40-man roster with reliable options. Free agency was fruitful and filled out the roster nicely. The Winter Meetings sees good interest from opposing clubs in both starter Brady Singer and catcher Freddy Fermin. It looks like a great sell-high opportunity for both players. With some catching options in the farm system, it could make some sense to pull the trigger on a Fermin trade. However, Carter Jensen still remains a year or so from the big leagues, even after his strong Fall League debut. For that reason, we choose to keep Fermin in the fold for 2025.

Singer is another interesting case, but for similar reasons we stand pat. Singer may very well regress some in 2025 but will be a vital piece of our rotation. It’s not a safe bet that Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo can repeat their dominance in 2025. Singer is a proven major league piece who could still be traded at the upcoming deadline if the season doesn’t quite go to plan — or if some young pieces from the farm show their worth. Despite some notable offers, we keep both Fermin and Singer in the fold and set sights to contention in 2025.

The Lineup and Bench

The Opening Day Lineup:

1. 2B Michael Massey
2. SS Bobby Witt Jr.
3. 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
4. DH Salvador Perez
5. LF Randal Grichuk
6. RF Hunter Renfroe
7. C Freddy Fermin
8. 3B Maikel Garcia
9. CF Kyle Isbel

Bench:

Our bench consists of OF Harrison Bader, OF MJ Melendez (who will platoon against RHP with Grichuk), INF Nick Loftin, and OF Tyler Gentry. With Ha-Seong Kim set to return by June 1, the lineup will look different.

1. 3B Ha-Seong Kim
2. SS Bobby Witt Jr.
3. 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
4. DH Salvador Perez
5. 2B Michael Massey
6. LF Randal Grichuk
7. RF Hunter Renfroe
8. C Freddy Fermin
9. CF Kyle Isbel

With Kim’s return, it slots Maikel Garcia into a bench utility role and moves outfielder Tyler Gentry back to Triple-A Omaha.

Rotation and Bullpen:

Rotation:

1. LHP Cole Ragans
2. RHP Seth Lugo
3. RHP Michael Wacha
4. RHP Brady Singer
5. LHP Noah Cameron

Given a strong look in Spring Training, Noah Cameron takes the only questionable spot in the big league rotation. The front four are set even before February arrives. It puts Cameron, Alec Marsh, Kris Bubic, and Daniel Lynch IV in competition for the rotation’s fifth spot. Starter Kyle Wright returns from injury but is optioned to Triple-A Omaha to continue building back to full strength. Kris Bubic remains in the bullpen after a strong showing in that role in 2024.

Bullpen:

LR: RHP Alec Marsh
MR: LHP Sam Long
MR: LHP Angel Zerpa
MR: RHP John Schreiber
SU: RHP Hunter Harvey
SU: LHP Kris Bubic
SU: RHP José Leclerc
CL: RHP Lucas Erceg

With so few spots remaining and ample depth, RHP Chris Stratton is designated for assignment at the conclusion of Spring Training. From there, it becomes a game of options. Carlos Hernández has no remaining options. He also simply isn’t quite better than the options we have currently in the bullpen. As a result, we trade Hernández to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for injured starter Noah Song. Song hasn’t pitched since 2023 and will be working back from Tommy John Surgery in 2025. With options remaining, it offers the Royals flexibility with still some upside.

Perhaps most surprising, RHP James McArthur is optioned to Triple-A Omaha as a bubble player with options remaining. He heads to Omaha alongside Daniel Lynch IV, Chandler Champlain, Evan Sisk, and Eric Cerantola. That group, along with Steven Cruz and Luinder Avila will offer Kansas City key pitching depth throughout the upcoming 2025 season.

How many wins would this Royals roster put together in 2025? Any players you feel were missed or left out, or other options that weren’t considered? Comment your thoughts below as we prepared for the real Royals offseason moves to come.