There was a report last week that the Kansas City Royals had checked in on slugging outfielder Juan Soto. The Royals had reportedly reached out but weren’t among the five teams to have made an offer to Soto this week. What does that mean for the Royals? Well, for starters, the Royals never truly had a chance to sign Juan Soto. We know that, the league knows that, and the Royals also know that. The team isn’t going to shell out $500 million or more and certainly isn’t going to compete with the likes of Los Angeles and New York in bidding wars.
Despite that, it should still be seen as notable that Kansas City was willing to touch base with Soto at all. There’s a chance that Kansas City was entertaining Soto’s willingness to sign a shorter three- or four-year contract. That deal would allow Soto to hit the open market again by age 30. All of this is nothing more than conjecture, but one thing is certain: the Royals seem open for business. The team traded starter Brady Singer to the Reds this week. In return, they got a new leadoff man Jonathan India. Checking one of the offseason’s largest boxes while also saving around $2 million in salary is no small feat. Could that mean even bigger news is on the horizon for Kansas City?
With some payroll to spend, could the Royals spend big this winter at a position of need?
Last offseason, the Royals set a franchise record by extending Bobby Witt Jr. Witt’s $288 million contract extension signaled one thing above all else: these aren’t your grandfather’s Royals. Could the front office follow that record contract up with another in the coming weeks? The largest free-agent contract in team history came in January of 2016. Alex Gordon signed with the Royals on a four-year, $72 million contract. Just behind him was Ian Kennedy, who signed the same month for five years, $70 million.
That January, Kansas City was fresh off a World Series Championship and ready to continue competing. These Royals are ready to continue competing themselves. Could the Royals continue to make history, this time by setting a franchise record for the largest free-agent contract ever doled out? It’s easier to say since it isn’t my money to spend, but that’s exactly what they should do at third base. The current MLB free agent market isn’t all that strong. There’s Soto, Teoscar Hernandez, and Alex Bregman. Behind those three hitters, there’s a substantial gap in available talent.
The team has already added India to play either second base or left field. If he’s in the infield, they’ve stated an openness to testing Michael Massey in a corner outfield role. With the outfield still a question, it may seem counterintuitive to let it be, but third baseman Alex Bregman would instantly stabilize the infield. At still just 30 years old, he’d become a major piece of the team’s core alongside Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino for the foreseeable future. He’s a two-time All-Star. He’s placed in MVP voting four different times, including second place in 2019. He also won a Gold Glove at third base in 2024.
Alex Bregman fits everything the Royals need in free agency
Alex Bregman won’t come cheap. He’s spent parts of nine seasons all with Houston. Through his career thus far, Bregman has a career slash line of .272/.366/.483 with 191 home runs, an 11.9% walk rate, and a 13.4% strikeout rate. In his career, he’s been worth 135 wRC+ and represents plus offensive value. Coming off a Gold Glove season, he’s useful defensively as well. Much of Bregman’s career value is inflated from his torrid 2018 and 2019 seasons, but he’s been well above average in every season of his career so far.
The Astros are still doing what they can to re-sign Bregman. He slashed .260/.315/.453 with 26 home runs and a 6.9% walk rate. That substantial drop in walk rate is the largest difference from Bregman’s normal production. Despite the “down” year, Bregman would immediately be the second-best hitter in the Kansas City lineup behind Bobby Witt Jr. Many of his strengths fit exactly what the Royals tend to look for as well.
To the right is Bregman’s 2024 Baseball Savant page. He ranked near the very top in whiff rate, strikeout rate, chase rate, and the amount of balls that he squared up. His hard-hit rate remained right around league average and his average exit velocity was right there as well. There’s a long enough track record for Bregman that it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see his walk rate bounce back closer to his career average in 2025 and beyond. If it does, Bregman is exactly the hitter that the Royals need in the middle of their lineup. With India at leadoff and Bregman hitting third, the 2025 Kansas City offense would have the potential to be among the league’s very best. There would still be questions to iron out in the outfield, but a mixture of newcomer Joey Wiemer, as well as a one-year deal for someone such as Randal Grichuk, could go a long way to settling that group as well.
So what might a contract look like? Bregman signed a five-year, $100 million extension with the Astros back in March of 2019. Bleacher Report projected that Bregman would sign a five-year, $150 million contract this offseason. Others, such as Tim Bitton of The Athletic have projected him to land a seven-year deal worth $179 million. Ken Rosenthal, also of The Athletic, has reported that Bregman and agent Scott Boras are aiming even higher.
I suspect that Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras, are aiming higher — specifically, at a deal closer to the 11-year, $350 million extension Manny Machado signed with the San Diego Padres in February 2023.
Preposterous? Maybe, considering that another of Boras’ third base clients, Matt Chapman, recently signed a six-year, $151 million deal. The Machado extension, which prevented him from opting out at the end of ’23, resulted in part from the passion and generosity of the late Padres owner, Peter Seidler. Other teams, including Bregman’s previous club, the Houston Astros, likely view it as an outlier. But the statistical comparison between Machado and Bregman is closer than one might think.
If the contract talks reach that point, the Royals would almost certainly be out of the mix. For Kansas City to land Bregman, he’d likely need to remain under the $200 million mark. Remember, we’re talking about a franchise that has never signed a free agent for more than $72 million (and both of their top two free agent deals didn’t exactly turn out stellar). Still, if Boras is willing to land somewhere just north of fellow client Matt Chapman, a deal could make sense for both sides.
The Royals have very limited financial obligations beyond 2025. Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and potentially Salvador Perez are the only real large contracts on the books past next season. Putting those four together, the Royals have $59 million committed for 2026 and even less beyond. That number includes Salvador Perez’s $13.5 million club option for 2026. Witt Jr. will be making just $13.7m in 2026, giving the Royals some financial flexibility to add around him.
If Bregman stays below the $200 million threshold, he would make a lot of sense for the Kansas City Royals. At 30 years old, he’ll likely be looking for years as well as dollars. For that reason, a seven-year, $177 million contract might be enough. It would put Bregman just ahead of Chapman in average annual value. It would also give him some long-term security over the back half of his big-league career. For the Royals, it would finally give them a true power bat at the hot corner without sacrificing defense. They’d be pairing their strong starting rotation with an equally strong lineup, featuring Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Alex Bregman.
With those five in place, the Royals could afford to let other players develop at the bottom of the lineup. Alex Bregman is exactly the type of hitter the Royals need. The only question is whether the team is truly willing to pay up again this offseason to make the moves the roster needs them to make.
