Standout: Anthony Simonelli – 57.1 IP,  2.35 ERA, 74 K, 22 BB, 0.99 WHIP

Simonelli wasn’t on many radars entering 2024. He was promoted to AA at the end of the 2023 season where he struggled in nine appearances. His 11.1 innings and 6.35 ERA placed him safely within the bullpen depth in Arkansas this season. Simonelli came out of the gates on fire with an April that saw 12.1 IP, 16 Ks, and a 1.42 ERA. In May he rose to 14 IP and 18 punchouts with an even better 1.26 ERA. Simonelli’s pitch mix leaves a little to be desired, with some improvement needed to the effectiveness of each pitch. However, this season looked to be a massive improvement in how he used those pitches. 

What stands out to me this season is his highest swinging-strike percentage since he graduated from the complex league. At 15.3% in AA, Simonelli has begun to develop a professional approach to attacking hitters. This will benefit him greatly as he hones his repertoire and begins his bid for the MLB bullpen. Simonelli finished the season with AAA innings and a selection to represent the Royals in the Arizona Fall League. If there’s an under-the-radar candidate to make to the team out of Spring Training, it’s here (barring invitation.)

Straggler: Beck Way – 58.0 IP, 3.88 ERA, 63 K, 40 BB, 1.50 WHIP

I’ve been a proponent of Way being a potential closing option for the Royals for a while now. Most of this was based on a couple of hot months for the Naturals in 2024. Way was part of the Benintendi trade to the Yankees in 2022, valued as a starter with big strikeout potential. After struggling heavily as a starter for the AA squad in 2023, Way made the shift to the bullpen full-time in 2024. 

Way didn’t give up a run in his first six appearances. He finished April with 10 IP over seven outings accumulating a 0.90 ERA, 14 K, and 4 BB. He dropped a bit in May, his ERA sitting at 3.75 for the month over more appearances for fewer innings. It was up and down like this for all of the 2024 season. Walks were the big issue as the season went on. Way’s 6.21 BB/9 was higher than any season while in the Yankee’s system. This BB/9 was second only to his 2023, which pushed him to the bullpen. The command has always been a bit of a question. The feeling was that it wouldn’t hurt him in short stints. 

 It was hard to place him in the “straggler” category because he showed flashes of being great. The overall feeling, unfortunately, is that he still has a while to go to be a consistent pen piece. His fastball/slider combination is legit. He set himself up for a great 2024 season and ended up stalling due to his inconsistency. It’s for this reason he ends up with this group. I will inevitably write about him as a breakout candidate before the 2025 season as well… for what that’s worth.

Standout: Eric Cerantola – 58.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 81 K, 42 BB, 1.32 WHIP

Eric Cerantola was perhaps the most electric arm out of the pen in 2024. He may have had some issues keeping runners off base but he had no issue punching out batters at the plate. Cerantola ended up having the season I thought Beck Way was going to have after the first month. He wasn’t closing but became a standout piece who earned a promotion to AAA at season’s end.

Cerantola only posted an ERA above 3.00 in AA a single time. Between AA and AAA, he struck out over 100 batters (101) for the first time in his career. Even with a lackluster WHIP, there isn’t much to dislike about Ceranotla’s 2024 AA season. A gnarly 17% swinging strike rate, 31.3% strikeout rate, and a 74.7% left-on-base percentage all headline his performance last season.

 Something to note is the seven starts by him in AA. There is by no means an expectation that Cerantola will be a starter. However, his ability to pitch longer outings could hint at a fireman role at the MLB level. Whether in big situations or when a starter blows up in early innings. He may be the guy to minimize damage and save the bullpen some innings. The walks were still a bit of an issue and he was helped by a bit of BABIP luck. AA Opponents only batted .240 against him on balls in play. His 4.16 FIP was also far less exciting. There’s still plenty of reason to expect good things from him moving forward.

He earned a 40-man spot in November. This not only protects him from the Rule 5 draft. It makes his path to the MLB far more accessible to him and the front office. He is a shoo-in for a Spring Training invite and clearly a part of J.J. Piccolo’s immediate plans. His selection to the 40-man over some other notable prospects illuminates this perfectly. 

Straggler: Ben Kudrna – 45 IP, 5.32 ERA, 48 K, 21 BB, 1.55 WHIP

Ben Kudrna is still perhaps the best starter in the system right now. At the very least his ceiling warrants his spot in the conversation. His season at high-A was far more impressive and showed improvement. He got to AA, though, and struggled heavily. The walks went up, batters hit him far better, and runs followed suit.

It looks like Kudrna was still more than capable of striking guys out and he didn’t walk too many. The issue is inherently related to his ability to keep guys from hitting him, specifically hitting him well. In his nine appearances (eight starts) he gave up 1.58 HR/9 and a 49.3% pulled contact rate. This tells me that he was far too predictable to AA hitters as he made his way up. If there’s anything to blame, it’s his approach on the mound. 

Kudrna has a middling fastball that has lost its effectiveness as he climbs the ranks. This is combatable but he has a very competitive and aggressive approach to batters. Notably, he struggled when he was promoted to A+ in the middle of the 2023 season. As he sees better competition, he is forced to refine his attack to a new level of batter. With a fastball, slider, and changeup all graded at a potential 55 he will have a solid arsenal but nothing to blow guys away. Unless one of those pitches can surprise us and beat expectations, his approach will be his superpower.

There is still a lot to be excited about here, but 2025 will be a big season to watch. Will he continue to figure out batters as he climbs? Will he climb yet again and end up in AAA by the season’s end? Most importantly; will the approach mature into a still aggressive yet less predictable tactic? 

Standout: Chandler Champlain – 36 IP, 3.50 ERA, 48 K, 7 BB, .92 WHIP

Champlain was a dawg at AA in seven starts but struggled as he climbed up to AAA. He was a quick promotion due to his effectiveness on the mound. He was extremely economical with a massive gap between his 34.5% punchout rate and 5.0% walk rate. Sure he gave up some contact and his pitches aren’t graded super highly. It’s worth noting that he gave up four home runs in just seven games. It’s also worth noting that his 3.50 ERA looked even better as a 2.94 FIP. He still showed signs of vulnerability but the final part of the Benintendi trade was evolving. 

It’s a small sample size to analyze because of how quickly he was called up. He also struggled heavily at the next level and is being left unprotected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Who knows if he’ll be a Royal come Spring Training but the AA performance was room for expectations to grow. The weird part to me? He didn’t give up too many line drives and the only change in batted ball type as he elevated was more ground balls. 

Straggler: Mason Barnett – 91.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 109 K, 36 BB, 1.36 WHIP

This feels like punching someone while they’re down, considering his trade to the A’s in July. He was integral to the Lucas Erceg trade as the Royals found their closer. Barnett was not his 2023 self at the time of the trade.

He was the best-performing pitching prospect in 2023, leading the organization in strikeouts and earning the title of best prospect in the system last year. In 2024 the strikeouts stayed, but he started to give up a few more hits and lose his ability to control the situation. His 3.68 FIP hinted that he was due to pitch better than the outcome but he struggled to keep fielding from being a factor. Top pitching prospects can shut down a game all on their own.

 Barnett only showed top-prospect ability in one (perhaps two) games for the Naturals in 2024. This came at the beginning of the season followed by a couple of really tough months. The only other potential example was the last game he pitched in the Royals system. There’s plenty you can say about the fluidity of pitching prospects and their success. This segment for Barnett simply serves as the potential reason the front office was willing to let him go. He pitched significantly better after being traded, doesn’t give up too many homeruns, and has a solid four-pitch mix. The Athletics got a good one.

Standout: Luinder Avila – 82.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 82 K, 43 BB, 1.38 WHIP

I am so excited to write about this one. Protected from the Rule 5 draft over Champlain and his bounce back after a rough first month is the sole reason. His numbers on the season are a bit underwhelming considering the type of article being written. You have to dive into his game logs to see just how fun he was this season.

From April 10th-May 11th, Avila pitched 20.2 innings and gave up 17 earned runs. It was perhaps the worst start on the AA squad. He finished his first month with an ERA of 7.40 and 21 strikeouts on 15 walks. He bounced back in a big way the following weeks, allowing just 10 earned runs over his next 44 innings pitched. Over those eight starts, Avila had a 2.04 ERA with 45 strikeouts and 21 walks. 

The 23-year-old righty had a bit of tough luck with injury this season and battled through to accumulate 87 innings pitched over 20 starts. These flashes of greatness were a big step for Avila. He has struggled to establish a place amongst the organization’s top arms until this season. His numbers following that great eight-game stretch were up and down, like his health. Needless to say, there’s a lot of reason to expect more out of him down the stretch. For now, this season serves as a bookmark for Avila to mark his position in line for the big league rotation. Even if that position is a few spots back.

Straggler: Anderson Paulino – 53.1 IP, 5.57 ERA, 53 K, 25 BB, 1.67 WHIP

Paulino has yet to find his stride within the system while he’s been with the Royals. Now 26, he has regressed from his numbers the past few seasons pretty significantly. Allowing a .805 OPS against opponents, Paulino was very hittable. He held the second-worst opponent average on the Naturals roster out of anyone who threw more than 6 innings. If you try to lower that number essentially everyone worse is big league arms that were rehabbing in 2024. He averaged over 10 hits (10.80) and around 1 home run (1.18) per nine innings pitched. The simple truth from this season is that Paulino was too easy to hit. 

The good news is that he is strictly viewed as a pen piece and those are far easier to develop than starters. His 8.94 K/9 is easily a tool to be utilized if staff can get him missing bats at a higher rate. Fangraphs has his fastball graded at 60 and his slider graded at 55, meaning the tools are there. Whether the coaching staff can find a way to limit hard contact with said tools. 

Standout: Tyson Guerrero – 102.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 109 K, 43 BB, 1.20 WHIP

Tyson was a dark horse for the top 10 prospects in the org in my opinion. To start the 2024 season there was reason to doubt he could perform, but he earned a promotion and showed great consistency on the mound. He didn’t achieve the status I believed he was capable of, however he made a case for the future. For starters, five of Guerrero’s last six starts in AA were quality ones.

A tough may knocked him back a bit but those starts were a sign that he was ready for a little more responsibility. Guerrero wasn’t “ace” material per se, but he was able to average a strikeout per inning (9.59 K/9) and hold opposing batters to a .638 OPS. Throw in a .213 average and hitters were not having a good time against him.

The walks were still a bit of an issue, with a 9.9% walk rate with the Naturals. The fact that he managed a 1.20 WHIP with a number like that is incredibly encouraging, though. We’ll see if Guerrero sticks at AAA next season or if he comes back to us at AA. Either way, next season is an important one for the University of Washington lefty. If his age-26 season is eventful, the late bloomer may push for the big league roster. 

Standout: Steven Zobac – 55.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 65 K, 14 BB, 1.08 WHIP

I was hoping to alternate between guys who struggled and those who excelled. Thanks to Zobac, there was more good to write about than bad. He was a very fun surprise, getting promoted midseason and pitching even better at AA than at A+. Zobac arrived at AA and, in his first month, started six games whirling 43 strikeouts with just five walks and a 2.16 ERA. Exclude the five earned runs in his first start for the Naturals, and it looks even more ridiculous.

A lot of Royals fans may have heard his name when he casually accumulated 12 strikeouts in seven innings of two-hit ball back in August. He followed that start with five innings of no-hit ball with seven strikeouts the very next start. His August was extremely hot, but that was the only full month with the AA team to date.

Zobac was easily the biggest surprise in the Royals org this season. His control is his best tool, pinpointing his fastball with ease. This allows him greater access to his other two pitches when he needs an out pitch. If there’s anything to be increasingly excited about, Fangraphs seems to think his command still has considerable room to grow. His current 40 grade command is listed at a potential 60 grade. He could get even more economical around the zone very soon. At 24 years old, the 2025 season would be a great year to do so.