Entering 2025, Royals fans have had many questions about the rotation’s back end, but I think we can be sure that the top three starters going into 2025 will be Cole Ragans, Seth Logo, and Michael Wacha. Ragans is coming off a year where he finished fourth in Cy Young voting, surpassing 100 innings for the first time in his career and finishing second in the AL in strikeouts. Lugo finished second in the Cy Young race with over 200 innings pitched, finishing second in the MLB in total innings. Wacha just signed a three-year $51 million contract with the Royals after a season with a 3.35 ERA. Wacha is all but a lock to be the 3rd man in the Royals rotation. Going into 2025 Kansas City can feel comfortable that the top of their rotation has experience and proven success in the league and will provide stability throughout 2025.

Who could fill the back end of the Royals rotation next season?

Kris Bubic (90%)

The fourth spot is Bubic’s job to lose entering the spring. J.J. Picollo said that the organization still views him as a starter. Bubic was once a first-round pick for the Royals in 2018 and rose as high as the number six prospect in the farm system. The last full season Bubic pitched was 2022 where he went 129 total innings and had a 5.58 ERA. Bubic only threw three pitches (four-seamer, changeup, and curveball) which I think played a part in his lack of success as a full-time starter. He added a slider in 2023 which looked good but only pitched 16 innings before he needed Tommy John and missed the rest of the year.

Bubic returned last season as a relief pitcher and looked better than ever when he delivered 30.1 total innings and a 2.67 ERA out of the bullpen. His fastball ticked up some and averaged 93 but got up around 95 several times when he first got back and was a very effective pitch. He brought back the slider that had wicked movement and was maybe his best-looking pitch, averaging 11 inches of lateral break. The changeup was still great, and he abandoned the curveball out of the bullpen. He used a cutter and sinker some in AAA but not as often in the majors, but I think if he becomes a starter again, we will see him use those more and maybe bring back the curve.

While the velocity for Bubic doesn’t blow you away, he gets good extension allowing the fastball to play a little faster than it is. He has great spin on his other stuff with the slider and curve sitting around 2650 RPM and getting crazy movement. He changed his arm angle some and he is not the same pitcher he was when he first got to the majors. Some fans are concerned about the past production and what his limits might be with the past injury, but I think Bubic is a completely different player than he was in 2022 and the Royals sound confident he can handle a full starter’s workload.

Alec Marsh (75%)

Marsh is coming off a mildly inconsistent season as the fifth starter for the Royals in 2024 which came with some great highs as well as several lows. But I don’t think Royals fans should lose confidence in him returning (not just because he’s my mom’s favorite player) in the same role going into 2025. Marsh was once ranked as high as 12 in the Royals farm system after being the 70th pick in the 2019 draft. As a minor leaguer, he flashed signs of great stuff, with a solid fastball and very consistent quality off-speed pitches, but mostly struggled with control. In 2024 Marsh won the 5th starter job for the Royals and put up 129 innings with a 4.29 ERA.

The 2024 season for Marsh had a ton of highs and lows with some dominating starts as well as some early pulls and struggles with control. The most memorable starts of the year for me were his first start against the Orioles where he went 7 innings, allowing one run, one walk, and striking out five players with 76 pitches, 54 of which were strikes. The next one that comes to mind is a huge start he had against the Yankees where he gave up one hit over seven innings with seven punch outs when the Royals needed him most.

Now there were also lows, after that incredible start against the Yankees, Marsh struggled against the Athletics giving up seven runs, and was pulled after just three innings. Marsh had a great fastball all year at around 94 mph with good spin. He tunnels it well with his slider, sweeper, curveball, changeup, and sinker. The ups and downs were the story of the 2025 season, but as a first-year, 26-year-old major league starting pitcher, Marsh showed promise. I think Royals fans should have confidence in him as the fifth starter in 2025.

What are the other possibilities for the Royals to consider?

Noah Cameron (25%)

Cameron is easily the most MLB-ready of the Royals starting pitcher prospects and is coming off a great year in the minors. Cameron started in Double-A and was promoted to Omaha mid-season where he put up a 2.32 ERA over 54.1 innings. Cameron was a seventh-round pick for the Royals in 2021 and mostly fell in the draft due to Tommy John surgery just prior but the Royals took the risk on him. Boy, it has paid off.

Cameron has a good pitch mix and while he won’t blow you away with velocity but has great command and keeps hitters timing off and getting a lot of strikeouts. The four-seamer plays slow at 92 mph and can be hittable if he doesn’t place it right which can be concerning but the rest of the mix is great. Cameron has one of the best changeups in the organization with real fading action and gets a lot of Whiffs. He also added a cutter last year which has been helpful for him, and he also mixes a slider and curve as needed.

Cameron attacks the strike zone with a deep pitch mix. That creates a lot of success getting swing-and-miss and forcing strikeouts. He pounds the zone which is the very message the Royals staff was pushing in 2024. I think it is likely the Royals give Cameron some time in Triple-A to get his feet under him and get into a rhythm before being called up if someone is struggling or injured. But I suspect he will be successful when called up and should have a good career in front of him.

Free Agency (10%)

There are several targets for the Royals in free agency, but I think it unlikely we see them get too active in that market. We have already seen several key starting pitchers come off the market and they come at a hefty price. Guys like Yusei Kikuchi (12 APY), Blake Snell (~36 APY), and Matthew Boyd (14.5 APY) all signed significant contracts. The Royals even re-signed one of their own — Michael Wacha — with a significant contract and I don’t think they have much interest in spending like that on another starting pitcher.

There are some options, the first of which would be Michael Lorenzen and likely the most likely. The Royals made a last-minute trade for Lorenzen right before the deadline in 2024 and he took over the fifth spot from Marsh at the end of the year. He added some much-needed depth for the rotation, but his contract ended, and he hit free agency. Unfortunately, I think Lorenzen wants a long-term deal with significant money that I don’t think the Royals want to spend.

I think that if the Royals look to sign a free-agent pitcher they likely wait until the market settles down. I think if there is a player they can get for cheap as we get closer to spring training, we will see them look at guys on one-year deals. I think options may include Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantril, Ross Stripling and John Means are guys that I think could fall through the cracks. Most of these guys have the talent but have struggled with some injuries and could look to prove that they still have it. But at the end of the day, I think the Royals are happy with what they have in-house and won’t look to spend on the free-agent market if they don’t think they have to.

Daniel Lynch IV (5%)

Lynch was once the 34th overall pick in the draft for the Royals in 2018 out of Virginia. The prospect profile with Lynch was always high with the hope that his big frame would translate to increased stuff as he got higher in the organization. Lynch stands at 6’6 and gets good extension on his pitches making the velocity play up. Lynch looked good in the bullpen in a new role at the end of the year in 2024, but Picollo said they still see him as a starter which is why I list him.

Lynch was once an MLB Top-30 prospect as he flashed a high-quality fastball and great command. Lynch threw a lot of breaking balls early in his career but doesn’t get a ton of spin on his pitches which has limited the effectiveness of them. In the minors, Lynch has sat around 95 but now is lower 90s but still effective. He has a good changeup and slider, but his command is the best aspect of his game right now.

Right now, I see Lynch as a depth option who is more of a long reliever who can add some length to the bullpen if a guy needs to be pulled early. If there are a lot of injuries he can be transitioned into a starter or a long opener for a bullpen game. But as of now, he has an option left, and barring a crazy spring training, I don’t think he will crack the rotation.

Kyle Wright (5%)

Last offseason the Royals moved on from Jackson Kowar, trading him to the Braves for Kyle Wright. Wright missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery and is a big-time wild card for the Royals going into 2025. I am not quite ready to put much stock into Wright being a major contributor, but he certainly has the potential to do so. Some even view him as a starter after his incredible 2022 season where he pitched over 180 innings. Unfortunately, that season is the only time Wright surpassed 40 IP in a season.

As much as I like what Kyle Wright has to offer, he must get healthy first so the Royals can figure out what he can offer. Wright has a great curveball with 2700+ RPM on it as his primary pitch and is very effective with it. He has two fastballs, a four-seamer, and sinker, that sit in the mid-90s and are quality pitches for him. He also throws a changeup and a slider to avoid barrels and throw-off timing. If he moves to the pen, he may eliminate one or two of those pitches to be more effective. I think Wright will start in Omaha to get a feel for where he is at in recovery and to figure out his role, and with some success, he could find a major league spot.

This may be disappointing for Royals fans who had a lot of hype around Kyle Wright, but I think it is unlikely he is a starter. He is coming off an injury and has an option remaining which likely means he starts in Omaha. I think he will be viewed as more of a bullpen guy and should have a similar trajectory as Kris Bubic had in 2024. I like the upside of what Wright can provide for the team in 2025 and if healthy could be a solid contributor to the team, but because of the injury concerns, I’m not ready to invest too much in him.

Luinder Avila (1%)

Avila is similar to Angel Zerpa as a prospect and has been a quality prospect for the Royals for some time now. Avila’s calling card is his hard cutter which sits around 95 mph and touches 97. He also mixes in a big curveball which can be 2800+ rpm and a quality slider that he has developed and mixes in a changeup and a sinker as needed. Avila has been a starter his whole minor league career, but I think is a better fit in the bullpen down the line because of his high velocity and spin.

He has only pitched significant innings as high as AA so far and struggles with his command. But if he can get better control of his pitches, he could be on the major league roster at some point in 2025. Avila has a long way to go, but he was selected to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft next month. If he moves to the bullpen, I think he can ditch the changeup and sinker and stick with his cutter, slider, and curve mix, and could be very effective if he develops better control.

Zerpa was once a starter for the Royals, so they may see Avila as a starter, but Zerpa looked much better out of the pen. This is why I highly doubt we see Avila in a starter role next year, but it is possible depending on how the Royals organization views him. I think it is all but a guarantee he won’t be on the major league roster from day one, but we could likely see him at some point in the bullpen in 2025.

What should fans take away from this?

The point of this article is to give Royals fans some comfort in the current state of the rotation. They have two guys who have starter experience and have a high potential to succeed in that role. They also have young depth in the farm and if there is concern there is no rush to jump into the pricy free agent market. The Royals have two elite pitchers at the top of the rotation as well as a high-quality third arm in Michael Wacha. Having Bubic and Marsh as the four and five is a good spot to be in as those are guys that have the potential to go out there and win you some games when they are on and could take a step forward to be high-quality players. Even with some regression from the older pitchers, this rotation could easily be one of the best in baseball again in 2025.