Image credit: Jay Biggerstaff/Imagn Images
The Kansas City Royals have been far from consistent to open the 2025 season. There’s no reason to expect them to come out of the gate on fire, but it would be nice to see more consistency. Batter timing is usually behind pitchers this time of year. Therefore, it’s unwise to react to small sample sizes with long-term decisions. The whole season is a small sample now just five games in, however, there are still some impactful decisions already limiting the Kansas City offense.
No question, the outfield is a problem. We mostly expected that coming in, but there was a glimmer of hope that things could improve over a year ago. Whether it was MJ Melendez’s new swing or Hunter Renfroe’s shape entering the season, there were reasons to believe entering 2025. Despite that, every passing game with a poor showing is just another hole poked into the raft that is the Royals’ outfield. With a rough start already upon us for many of the players we worried about, have the Royals positioned themselves correctly to open the 2025 season?
Speed helps, but can it break out of a slump when the time comes?
Dairon Blanco was the final man on the Royals’ Opening Day roster. He was worth five runs on the basepaths a year ago and a key spark for the offense throughout the season. The reasoning behind the decision made by Kansas City makes sense. Hunter Renfroe, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez are all clogs on the basepaths. Late in games, using Blanco as a pitch runner can turn directly into runs on the scoreboard. It’s sound logic with evidence to back it up — it’s just not the decision the Royals need right now.
Blanco stole two bases without a plate appearance this season but landed on the injured list with Achilles tendinopathy. That allowed the Royals to again reshape the back of their bench. Instead, they opted for the minor league speedster, Tyler Tolbert. With 243 steals and just 16 caught stealing across six minor league seasons, Tolbert is the perfect fit to slide right into Dairon Blanco’s pinch runner role. Do pinch runners make enough difference when the offense is stagnant? The Royals were shut out on Tuesday after an 11-run explosion the night before. Without that 11-run win, the Royals have managed to score ten runs in four games. Less than three runs per game simply isn’t going to translate to wins.
What the pinch runner role allows late in games doesn’t do enough to make up for what it prevents. The Royals are left with one less option to possibly provide a spark where others may not. MJ Melendez has struggled to a .277 OPS early on, while Hunter Renfroe owns a .143 average. Kyle Isbel has a .167 on-base percentage, and Cavan Biggio has struggled to get things going with a .522 OPS early on. That leaves too many struggling Royals with only one real option: play through the slump. That wouldn’t be such an issue if it wasn’t for most of the bottom of the lineup playing through the slump. That’s where our final bench spot becomes questionable.
The Royals need as many starting-caliber options as they can get
Swap out Tyler Tolbert for any of John Rave, Joey Wiemer, or Nick Loftin, and suddenly you have another option to limit how many “slumps” you’re leaving in the lineup nearly every day. Once again, it’s not about results. Early season slumps can quickly turn around, and it sometimes takes time for even the best hitters to find their timing in April. A small sample of five games isn’t nearly enough to make roster decisions over. Instead, it’s about the process. Right now, the Kansas City offense needs as much upside as it can get until something sticks.
Rave, Wiemer, and even Loftin offer some level of quickness on the basepaths. They all play serviceable defense at worst. You’re not losing that much speed relative to the flexibility you gain in lineup decisions each day. Most of all, you have another real outfield option to add a spark to an outfield in desperate need.
Barring re-inventing himself entirely, there just isn’t impact at the plate from Tyler Tolbert. Alongside results from John Rave at the same level, there’s a clear juxtaposition in offensive upside. That upside fits better with what the current Royals lineup needs. An elite pinch runner is a valuable commodity but should be seen more as a luxury for a team with serious questions on offense. Royals outfielders posted a wRC+ of just 78 a year ago, and early returns have them not much better at just an 84 wRC+ to open 2025. A metric like weighted runs created plus takes far more than five games to stabilize, but it doesn’t take any advanced metrics to see the lack of production from the outfield early on.
So again, the pinch runner is a net positive when it comes to roster value. That net positive overcomes a mere fraction of the net negative that the team’s struggling outfield gives. It’s a luxury that the Royals should look to employ once they’ve answered a few more questions about the future of their big league outfield. So for now, please give us John Rave or Joey Wiemer or Nick Loftin — Tyler Gentry even. Enough baserunning value will come from the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia. Instead, it’s time for the Royals to better employ the outfield depth until more pieces of the puzzle start to fall into place.
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