Royals v Tigers Series Preview: Make it Rise from the Ashes

It would be a small miracle, but if the Royals could possibly salvage this road trip, it would be by winning the most important series of the year to date.

Some will say the Guardians should be seen as the better team, but in my opinion the Tigers are the most likely to win the division outside of my Royals bias. I thought they were underperforming much of the last season until they pulled off one of the most odds-defying playoff runs we’ve ever seen. That’s much closer to what I expected the Tigers to be last year and moving forward; on top of that they boast one of the best farm systems in baseball with many of its best prospects just about MLB-ready. Oh, and their guy won the pitching Triple Crown.

Somewhat like last year, the Tigers’ potential is masked by their record. They played their first three games against the Dodgers of all teams and simply got beat by the sheer volume of that team’s talent. They’ve shrugged that series off and have immediately established a lead on the AL Central with a 10-8 record, but still being this close to .500 shows they haven’t completely taken off and run away with it. They’ve lost three of their last four games and only stand two-and-a-half games above the Royals currently. This could cause some early-season drama within this race; the Royals could win or even sweep the series to bring the Tigers within a game along with the Guardians, or the Tigers could do the same and make this their first true widening of the gap between teams. Or they could just go 2-2 and keep everything as is!

It’s not surprising that the Tigers have a good lineup, but what’s surprising is who is (or isn’t) helping. Riley Greene has been a beast for the past couple years, but for some reason he’s currently leading the AL in strikeouts with absolutely nothing to love from his bat this year. Instead, the Tigers are finally seeing their investments pay off from the 2020 1st Overall Pick Spencer Torkelson and–no really–Javier Báez. It’s an uneven lineup, though, with only six of the team’s thirteen position players having an OPS+ of 100. The Tigers have a 108 wRC+ which is 11th in baseball. It’s good, but it’s not great.

The Tigers’ bullpen is amusingly similar to the Royals’. Both teams have shown to have a formidable late-game combo and aggressively terrible middle relief. They’re FIPs are both kinda bad because they don’t strike a lot of guys out. Although the Tigers also limit their walks pretty well. An interesting thing to note is that Detroit’s bullpen has a .213 BABIP, which is the third-lowest in baseball. Meanwhile, their defense rates and ranks about average across the board. This could be useful information, this could not!

Pitching Matchups

Thursday, April 17 @5:40 PM
RHP Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 3.71 ERA, 17 IP) v RHP Reese Olson (1-1, 6.00 ERA, 15 IP) – Despite the three earned runs, I thought Lorenzen had some of his best control on Sunday, his last start versus Cleveland. The #5 starter for the Royals has a 111 ERA+ on the season so far thanks to three solid starts of more than 5 innings each. Reese Olson has only one good start so far this year and it was against the White Sox. Last year, he had a 4.50 ERA against the Royals in three starts, though two of them were shortened for whatever reasons. His slider has been his best pitch in the past, but it’s been getting hit a lot this year and he’s starting to favor his sinker more. The sinker also gets hit a lot but has an expected batting average against of .216.

Friday, April 18 @ 5:40 PM
LHP Cole Ragans (1-0, 2.28 ERA, 23.2 IP) v RHP Jackson Jobe (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 15 IP) – As of writing on the morning of April 17th, 2025, Cole Ragans is leading the Major Leagues in strikeouts with 34. He has struck out 10+ hitters in each of the last three starts and walked 0 hitters in his last two starts. It should be another fun start from Ragans, but the Tigers have a quality opponent for him. Jobe came into this season as a top-10 prospect with four good pitches and plus command. He’s still getting it together at the MLB level, evidenced by his bad strikeout and walk numbers, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have a good start at any point, especially against KC.

Saturday, April 19 @ 12:10 PM
RHP Seth Lugo (1-2, 3.86 ERA, 23.1 IP) v RHP Casey Mize (2-1, 2.60 ERA, 17.1 IP) – Lugo’s last start in New York inflated a lot of the wrong numbers but in general he hasn’t had particularly great command this year. He’s still providing a lot of innings and hopefully a lesser lineup will get him to improve his numbers. If Casey Mize seems like a familiar name, he was the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. After years of dealing with injuries, it seems like he’s finally on a breakout path; the overall numbers might not jump off the page, but Mize has an expected ERA of 2.07 and he’s throwing harder than he did before he had Tommy John surgery in 2022. Despite not posting great strikeout and walk numbers so far, all five of his pitches are grading out well and are tough to hit.

Sunday, April 20 @ 12:40 PM
RHP Michael Wacha (0-3, 4.35 ERA, 20.2 IP) v LHP Tarik Skubal (2-2, 2.66 ERA, 23.2 IP) – Wacha’s ERA is much worse than it should be because five of his earned runs were given up by Sam Long and Angel Zerpa. He also hasn’t had great command like Lugo and hasn’t been getting guys out by himself a lot, but he’s also only given up one home run, which is a good sign. And then there’s Tarik Skubal. The reigning Cy Young and Triple Crown winner gave up 7 runs in his first 12 starts but has since pitched 13 scoreless innings. He’s also struck out 15 and walked none. If only he was dueling Ragans.

The title of this article comes from Jack White’s ‘Lazaretto’.

Image Credit: Lon Horwedel (USA TODAY Sports)