Royals @ Orioles Series Preview: Tired O’s Begin To Fall

The second part of the AL East road trip begins today, as the 17-15 Kansas City Royals take on the 12-18 Baltimore. Both teams already met in Kauffman Stadium about a month ago and they were both off to rather disappointing starts, but the Royals have begun to correct course while the Orioles have sunk into a much deeper hole.

Baltimore Orioles, On Offense

The offense shouldn’t be burdened with the blame for Baltimore’s current record, but it’s still playing well below expectations. The still-young lineup that boasted the highest slugging percentage in the AL last year now ranks a mere 18th in that statistic; among other disappointing metrics the Orioles have a team-wide 97 wRC+ which is the definition of average at 15th. That being the case, they also rank 20th in runs scored and 25th in stolen bases while ranking in the bottom-5 for defensive runs saved and outs above average. The Orioles were never much of a speedy nor defensive team to begin with, instead being defined by sheer offensive firepower up and down their entire order. For whatever reason, Cedric Mullins and, *sigh* Ryan O’Hearn are the only two orange birds that have really taken off offensively so far.

Keep in mind, the hitters seem to be largely healthy. They’re missing some key hitters like Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser, but it’s not like Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson have been gone most of the past month. The lack of offensive momentum from the Orioles, what was their bread and butter for the past two seasons, is starting to become one of the more talked-about narratives of this baseball season.

I did say the Orioles lineup can’t be blamed too much for their current struggles, which brings us to their pitching. It will really sink in how bad it is when we get to the starting pitching matchups, but the Orioles have the worst pitching in the American League. Forget the White Sox, the only teams that have allowed more runs than Baltimore are the Marlins and Rockies. The Royals started to turn their season around on April 20, which was the first victory of their six-game winning streak. On that day, The Orioles lost to the Cincinnati Reds 24-2 and they’ve only gone 3-8 in that time, although they did at least stand up for themselves by winning their latest series at home against the Yankees.

In any case, the Orioles have a bad bullpen, although it has some bright spots. It holds the 6th-worst ERA at 4.74 but a good home run rate gives them a 3.75 FIP, which is more in the average range. Despite the poor ERA, the Orioles are actually tied with the Padres, who have the best bullpen ERA, for the fewest blown saves at just one. The All-Star closer Félix Bautista has made a full recovery from Tommy John surgery to reliably close games with Keegan Akin and Matt Bowman supporting in the late-game like last year.

Game Times & Pitching Matchups

Friday, May 2 @ 6:05 PM
RHP Michael Wacha (1-3, 3.38 ERA, 32 IP) v RHP Dean Kremer (2-4, 7.04 ERA, 30.2 IP) – Michael Wacha is coming off his best start of 2025 where he shut out the Astros for six innings. Wacha faced the Orioles in the April series where he was unable to finish the sixth inning and Sam Long helped him give up four runs. Kremer had a relatively poor outing of his own in the April series, giving up three runs over 4.1 innings, not finishing the fourth after nearly 90 pitches. It’s been a rough season for the 6-year veteran as he’s failed to miss a lot of bats this season and has been getting crushed, especially with his cutter.

Saturday, May 3 @ 6:15 PM
LHP Kris Bubic (2-2, 2.25 ERA, 36 IP) v RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (3-1, 3.00 ERA, 33 IP) – Kris Bubic was the losing pitcher for the Royals on Sunday, but his 2.25 ERA is still the 7th best in the American League. The key for this start would be limiting walks, as that’s troubled some of his weaker outings, but the Orioles have the 9th-lowest walk percentage at present. Sugano was the winning pitcher in Baltimore’s only win against KC last month, limiting the Royals to one run over 5.1 innings and striking out four. The one run came from Bobby Witt Jr.’s first home run of 2025. The 35-year-old from Japan has been the lone bright spot in Baltimore’s starting rotation.

Sunday, May 4 @ 12:35 PM
RHP Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA, 33.2 IP) v RHP Kyle Gibson (0-1, 22.09 ERA, 3.2 IP) – Neither of these pitchers were featured in the April series. Michael Lorenzen is coming off back-to-back 1-run, 6-inning starts versus Colorado and Tampa Bay. Though the walk, strikeout and home run numbers don’t fly off the page, Lorenzen has been able to prevent big innings of uncontrolled offense; he could be stepping up if the strikeout numbers increase further. Kyle Gibson is only making his second start of the year; his first was a 9-run beating suffered over less than four innings from the Yankees. He allowed five home runs, which would be nice for the Royals to take note of. The 37-year-old has thrown 155 innings against the Royals over his long career, having spent his first several seasons with the Twins, and has a lifetime 4.00 ERA against KC.

Series Goals & Expectations

When analyzing the 2025 schedule right as the season started, it looked like the Orioles would contribute to the early-season gauntlet of tough teams. Instead, the Royals took two of three relatively easy, and it seems like vibes are getting dismal in Baltimore. If the Royals could sweep a red-hot Rays with two of their best starters on the bump and Cole Ragans being unavailable, it’s hard not to see why the Royals can’t win two more on this road trip. In my own pockets of Royals discussion, I said I wanted the team to hit five home runs this week. They got two in the Rays series, so I’d like to see three this weekend. The Royals have found life on offense this past couple of weeks, so it should continue building strength against a weak pitching staff. 12 runs over these three games would be nice to see.

This article’s title is based on a lyric from the song ‘REFLECT’ by Gawr Gura.

Image Credit: Patrick Smith (Getty Images)