Times have sure changed quickly for Gavin Cross. He was drafted ninth overall by Kansas City in 2022. At the time, he was seen by most as a relatively polished college hitter who could move through the system quickly. It was a “safe” pick that turned out to be a disappointment early on. There have been flashes of hope, however. Cross has very good power when he can make contact. He’s also shown a strong ability to steal bases and has played well in center field, despite being seen by many as a future corner outfielder.
Season Stats:
2022 (Low-A): .293/.423/.596, 17.9% BB%, 25.2% K%, 174 wRC+
2023 (High-A): .206/.300/.383, 10.3% BB%, 27.8% K%, 91 wRC+
Cross started rather slowly in 2023, hitting just .202 by the end of May. He had nine home runs by that point but would finish his season with just three more. The slump never really ended for Cross and he eventually hit the injured list due to illness that shortened his 2023 campaign. He entered last season as a Top-100 prospect but quickly fell off that list due to his high strikeout totals and overall lack of contact.
The Royals promoted Cross to Double-A despite all his struggles, but he only appeared in two games before illness ended his season. He did travel to Arizona to play in this season’s Fall League. Over eight games there, he slashed .222/.353/.296 with zero home runs. All hope isn’t lost for Cross, but it’s certainly been difficult to see thus far. Although the strikeout rate is very high, his swinging strike rate was below the minor league average in 2023. This could point to an issue with approach, or seeing the ball in the zone. He took too many pitches last season. Starting strong in 2024 will be important for Cross, otherwise, he may fall off the prospect radar entirely.
Scouting Grades:
Hit: 40/55
Game Power: 40/55
Raw Power: 50/55
Speed: 55/55
Glove: 50/50
Arm: 50/50
Best Case Scenario:
It wasn’t very long ago that Cross was a consensus top pick in the MLB Draft. That talent didn’t disappear entirely over just a season and a half in the minor leagues. His biggest calling card pre-draft was his loud exit velocities and strong ability to use all fields. That approach has gotten away from him some in the minor leagues. If he can get back to using all fields, Cross’s raw power will impact the game all on its own. He’s still got the potential to anchor the heart of a major league lineup with 25-30 home runs while hitting .270 or so.
Worst Case Scenario:
Can it get much worse for Cross than what we already saw last season? The worst outcome here is simply that things never get back on track. It’s possible that the Gavin Cross we saw in 2023 is just who he truly is as a hitter. If the approach never materializes then it’ll be rather difficult for Cross to live up to his draft pedigree. There’s some similarity here to Nick Pratto, in that he takes too many pitches. If Cross continues to look for the best pitch instead of just pitches he can do some sort of damage with, then the strikeout rate will always be high and he won’t be able to impact the game enough to reach the big leagues.
