The Kansas City Royals drafted Peyton Wilson in Competitive Balance Round-B in the 2021 Amateur Draft. He was the 66th overall pick, signing for a bonus of $1,003,300. That total was exactly the slot value for the selection. Wilson represented a somewhat safer floor early on in an otherwise risky draft class. 2021 included high school talents such as Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, and Carter Jensen. The savings that the Royals gained by selecting Mozzicato seventh overall (right around $2 million) went mostly to Kudrna, Jensen, and 11th-rounder Brennon McNair — also a prep prospect.
MLB Pipeline called Wilson the 68th-best prospect in the 2021 class. At the time, he offered a relatively safe floor, relying on near plus-plus speed, a plus-plus arm, and above-average defensive ability. The power didn’t seem likely to turn many heads, but he was seen as at least a potentially average hit-tool long term.
“If he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular at the next level, Wilson has the ability to play almost anywhere on the field as a utilityman. He has good instincts, range and hands at second base, where his well-above-average arm is stronger than most at the position. He’s also a quality center fielder and a capable catcher, and he might be worth a look at shortstop.”
MLB Pipeline’s profile on Wilson from their 2021 draft rankings
Prospects Live ranked Wilson a bit lower, down at 92nd overall in the class. They mentioned comparisons to Will Smith and Austin Nola with a great chance to stick up the middle of the diamond either at catcher, center field, second base, or shortstop: “Very good bat-to-ball skills with a little bit of punch in the bat to his pull-side. Has drawn some Will Smith comparisons from evaluators, though we think he better compares to an Austin Nola type of player.”
Wilson arrived in a big way in 2022, outshining his draft profile with High-A Quad Cities
Since being drafted, things have been anything but consistent for Wilson. Each season thus far, it seems as if he has become an entirely different player than the year prior. The speed and arm remain constant, but everything else about his profile has been different from year to year since 2022. That first full season in 2022, Wilson spent the entire season with High-A Quad Cities. In 88 games, he slashed .268/.359/.456 with 14 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 24.9% strikeout rate. Defensively, he played 51 games at second base and 35 games in center field.
Over the second half of the season, Wilson played almost exclusively center field and came alive at the plate. From July 1 through the end of September, he slashed .307/.401/.512, good for a 154 wRC+. By the end of 2022, it seemed as if Wilson was poised to make a leap from a potentially promising utility man to a potential everyday center fielder. That season, Wilson wasn’t just an average contact bat with sound defense. Instead, he posted a .188 ISO and a 34% fly-ball rate. As a result, Wilson skyrocketed up my personal prospect rankings. He was in the top 10 at one point, simply because he looked completely different from what the draft profile had once told us.
2023 was much different for Wilson, but he remained successful in spite of a 180 at the plate
Entering 2023, Wilson was receiving plenty of hype. By midseason, that hype had dissipated back to that of a late top-30 type prospect. The reason was simply a complete reversal in results at the plate. The year prior, Wilson had shown above-average power and good enough patience to carry his value long-term. In 2023, the power all but disappeared. He finished the year with a .125 ISO, mostly thanks to streaky power bursts throughout the season. However, alongside the zapped power, Wilson took serious strides forward with his batted-ball ability.
Wilson hit .286 on the season and cut his strikeout rate from 24.9% the year prior to 18.0% in 2023. He stole 19 bags but didn’t play a single game in center field. He spent the entire season at second base — save for one game in left field and another at third — where the defense was admittedly spotty at times. Wilson went from a potential five or six-hitter playing a premium position to a potential lead-off man or nine-hole hitter who could provide an offensive spark. Both players have value, but one had the chance to be much more impactful than the other.
So far in 2024, Wilson has reversed his ways to more of what we saw in 2022, albeit with more struggles
Now into 2024, Wilson has morphed back into somewhat of a power hitter at the plate. He’s played 20 games in left field this season, 16 at second base, and two in center field. He’s slashed .210/.303/.401 and scraped his way to a 94 wRC+ to this point. Wilson’s walk rate is up to 11.4% — the highest it’s been at any full-season affiliate thus far. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate is also up to the highest we’ve seen in his pro career at 27.6%.
The cause of that may be Wilson’s return to lifting the baseball and looking for more power. He’s done so thus far, posting a .191 ISO in the season’s first two months. That mark is also a career-high for him. Wilson’s fly-ball rate is up eight percent compared to last season and his line drive rate is just around a percent higher than 2023 (currently at 21.4%). However, the largest evidence supporting Wilson’s efforts to lift the ball more is his 51.8% pull rate so far in 2024. Last season that mark was down at 43.0%. It’s apparent that Wilson is looking to pull the ball this season and find more lift. He’s succeeding at both thus far, but it’s hurt his batted-ball ability.
What’s next for Wilson as he continues to move his way through the farm system?
Wilson’s swinging strike rate is up to 15.2% (yes, that’s yet another career-high). Among all Double-A hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season, that’s the 27th-highest mark, right behind Jacob Berry in the Miami Marlins farm system. Things are quietly turning around, though. Over his last ten games, Wilson has cut his strikeout rate down to 22.7%. His walk rate is up over 15% in that span, but unfortunately, the power has dissipated in the process. It’s certainly a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde profile for the 24-year-old infielder.
If Wilson can find a way to put both profiles together, he has a chance to be a very solid everyday contributor in the major leagues. The Royals could certainly use that from their outfield, which ranks among the worst in baseball so far this season. If he can’t, he’ll need to decide which player he wants to be to continue moving up the minor league ranks. He spent all of last season with Northwest Arkansas and returned there again in 2024. He’s spent more than enough time at the level but might need to settle on an identity in order to make his way to Triple-A Omaha and find any sort of lasting success.
