A look at potential Spring Breakout matchups for the Royals

Over the winter, MLB announced the first annual Spring Breakout showcase. The showcase, which takes place March 14-17, will allow teams to field a roster built solely of their organization prospects. The rosters will then compete against other clubs. The Kansas City Royals Breakout team will play a game against the Milwaukee Brewers prospects on March 17. Games will take place in the Spring Training facilities, meaning the Royals and Brewers will play their game in Arizona.

This week, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline shared everything you need to know about the inaugural Spring Breakout. To be eligible for the Breakout game, a prospect must also be eligible for MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Prospects list. This means that prospects must have rookie eligibility entering the 2024 season. In other words, prospects must have fewer than 130 MLB at-bats, less than 50 MLB innings pitched, or otherwise must have spent less than 45 active days on a big league roster. I clarified with Sam that prospects don’t have to be sourced directly from the team’s Top 30 prospects, but the eligibility is determined the same way.

Rosters will include between 23 and 27 prospects per club. Dykstra also notes in his preview some special rules that Breakout games will include. Those are listed below:

  • Seven Innings per game
  • ABS – The Automated Ball-Strike challenge system will be in use, but only in select Florida games. The Royals games will not feature the ABS Challenge.
  • There will be no three-batter minimum for pitchers
  • Player re-entry: If a pitcher is taken out of the game, they may return later. This is only for pitchers and allows two-way players to pitch, and then return to the field later on.

With the basics clarified, here’s a look at the prospects I’d most like to see play for the Royals and the best matchups that could be on the way.

Royals prospects that I’d love to see in the upcoming Spring Breakout game

First and foremost, picking the prospects I’d most like to see this March is like picking my favorite child. I’d love to see anyone who makes the roster, but the game does give a unique opportunity for some prospects to plant their flag a bit and raise their prospect status. Beyond that, I don’t expect the Royals will put anyone on the 40-man roster into the game. This means that Will Klein, John McMillon, Tyler Gentry, and Nick Loftin are all eligible but seem unlikely to make the roster. That’s purely my speculation, but seems like a likely outcome.

LHP Frank Mozzicato

Mozzicato looks to have added muscle in the limited looks we’ve seen this offseason. He worked alongside Shane Panzini and Ben Kudrna with Cressey Sports Performance this winter. Last offseason, he added a slider with CSP and used it in game action by the end of 2023. If Mozzicato added muscle, then he could enter the Breakout Game with added velocity. If he does, what better place to showcase that added velocity?

CF Carson Roccaforte

Roccaforte got his feet wet in the minors last season with Low-A Columbia. The power didn’t show up for him, but he showed off excellent defense and got on base in nearly every game he played. The Royals drafted him with the belief that his promising batted ball data could translate to power at the next level. If Roccaforte has a strong game against another organization’s best prospects, it could help him on his way to a “coming-out” party of sorts. Roccaforte is a name I expect to rise this season, and this would be a great place to start.

LHP Noah Cameron

Noah Cameron has been working on maintaining consistent velocity this offseason. He also let us know that he’s been working to add a cutter. The Spring Breakout would be a great place for Cameron to showcase the improvements to his arsenal against some excellent competition. He made his way to Double-A last year, but arm fatigue and growing pains limited his results for the Naturals. He’s still a top-ten prospect in the system for me and seems ready to prove that in 2024.

OF Gavin Cross

Cross had about as poor a 2023 season as anyone could’ve expected. He slumped big time after June 1 before an injury and illness ended his season prematurely after just a couple of games for Northwest Arkansas. The Royals sent Cross to the Arizona Fall League after the season wrapped up and he played sparingly. Still, the reviews from Cross’s time in Instructional League were positive and it’ll be important to see those improvements come through early in 2024.

RHP David Sandlin

Sandlin has a case to become the team’s top pitching prospect by the middle of 2024. An injury shortened his 2023 season. Before that, he was bullying Low-A hitters. It was absolutely unfair and hitters had zero chance of maneuvering Sandlin’s upper-90s fastball and fading splitter. This offseason, Sandlin has been back to health and throwing, hitting triple-digits at times. The Spring Breakout could be a great starting point for a true breakout season for Sandlin.

Notable upcoming matchups we could see this March

LHP Frank Mozzicato vs. 3B Brock Wilken

Wilken was a true standout for Wake Forest before being drafted by the Brewers in last year’s draft. He should anchor the heart of the Brewers’ Breakout lineup and seeing Wilken face off against our current Royals top pitching prospect would be extremely fun. Mozzicato, of course, offers an excellent curveball and there’s hope he added velocity this winter. This battle would be a great one to see.

RHP David Sandlin vs. 3B/1B Tyler Black

Tyler Black had a breakout 2023 season between Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville. In all, over 123 games, he slashed .284/.417/.513 last season. He’s an extra-base machine, finishing last year with 25 doubles, 12 triples, and 18 home runs. The power bat facing off against Sandlin’s power arm would be a tough matchup for both. Black ranked as Pipeline’s fourth-best Brewers prospect last season and would be a more than worthy test of Sandlin’s arm returning from injury.

RHP Jacob Misiorowski vs. OF Gavin Cross

Misiorowski is one of the best young pitchers in the entire minor leagues. He walks his share of hitters, but the strikeout ability is truly elite. In 2023, he worked his way from Low-A to Double-A, pitching a total of 71.1 innings across three levels. In that span, he struck out 110 batters, including 36 at Double-A. That was good for a 15.6 SO9 for Double-A Biloxi. Cross, of course, struggled with strikeouts big time in 2023. The swinging strike rate wasn’t obscene, so there’s hope that Cross can cut those strikeouts down in 2024 and this would be a good gauge of how he might fare in that regard.

LHP Robert Gasser vs. 2B Javier Vaz

If you think Misiorowski was good last season with the strikeouts, let me tell you about Robert Gasser. He wasn’t as good as Misiorowski per nine innings and his stuff isn’t overpowering. Even still, Gasser struck out 166 hitters last season for Triple-A Nashville. That mark ranked fourth among all qualified pitchers in the minor leagues. Gasser doesn’t have an upper-90s power fastball, but he does well to use his full arsenal of offspeed stuff alongside his heater. He’s a funky lefty with a dominant slider. Javi Vaz is one of the best contact hitters in the entire minor leagues and showed improved line drive power after a midseason promotion to Northwest Arkansas in 2023. This would be a fun matchup.

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