With the MLB offseason now more than a week underway, the Kansas City Royals have their work cut out ahead of them. There’s plenty of work to do improving the roster to hopefully build a much more competitive baseball team next season. With so much to do, where will the Royals focus first? What are the big ticket items this winter versus the smaller, more secondary focuses?
Anne Rogers of MLB.com had some insight on her Royals Beat newsletter on Friday. The focus, unsurprisingly, starts with improving the team’s starting pitcher depth. The same can be said for just about every other major league team entering free agency this fall. Rogers mentions the Royals “won’t be in the upper tier of spending” but alludes instead to bounce-back candidates and potential trades as routes the organization could go this offseason. General Manager J.J. Picollo echoed some confidence that the team can acquire and improve pitching, much like they feel they did with Cole Ragans.
“I feel like we’re on a good track when we talk to free agents and when we acquire a pitcher, we have some evidence now that we can help them and further their development. I’m excited about that. But it’s going to be competitive. I think opportunity, being able to step into a rotation, helps. Adding guys that have had a certain level of success, who bring a presence to a team and to the clubhouse is important as well.”
J.J. Picollo
Beyond pitching, the Royals have already showed their hand some in their pursuit of outfielder Mark Canha. Canha was traded from the Brewers to the Tigers earlier this week and represents many of the key items that Kansas City would like to add to the offense. Rogers mentions that the Royals would like to “add a bat or two in order to add power and depth to their lineup. A hitter known for getting on base would fit in the plans.” With those two overarching themes to the offseason ahead, who might fit into the plans for Kansas City?
Starting pitchers who could pique the Royals interest
RHP Marcus Stroman
Stroman somewhat surprisingly opted out of his final contract year with the Cubs. His salary would’ve been $21 million next season, but he now hopes to sign what will likely be his last chance at a multi-year contract. He will almost certainly not cost anywhere near $20 million per year, but somewhere closer to 3-years, $35 million is probably in the cards for Stroman.
The veteran starter has been about as consistent as they come over each of the last four seasons, save for some recent injury bug issues that shortened his 2023 campaign. He’s pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each season since 2019 and although he doesn’t strike out hitters at an elite rate, he usually limits walks and throws strikes. Stroman would be great depth and a stabilizing figure in what figures to be a rather young Royals rotation.
RHP Tyler Mahle
Mahle is perhaps the most clear bounce-back candidate on the open market right now. He underwent Tommy John surgery back in May but could be ready for Opening Day, depending on his recovery timeline. In a small five game sample last season, he was fantastic for the Twins. Mahle struck out 28 batters against just five walks, good for a 3.16 ERA.
Mahle could struggle to earn a multi-year deal following his injury, making him an excellent one-year “prove-it” deal candidate. At just 29 years old, a strong showing in 2024 could be a great chance for Mahle to earn a long-term deal after next season. For the Royals, he’d be a risky addition for a team that needs depth. The price shouldn’t be too steep and the potential return makes the risk worth it.
RHP Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty was once one of the best pitching prospects in the game, peaking as the Cardinals third overall prospect back in 2018. He debuted very strong in 2018 and 2019 but has struggled with injuries since 2021. 2023 was the most complete season he’s put together since the shortened 2020 season. He pitched 144.1 innings last season with a no-so-great 4.99 ERA.
His FIP, however, was much better at 4.34 and shows some signs of a bounceback. Baseball Savant graded him above average in average exit velocity, whiff rate, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. Similar to Mahle, Flaherty could be looking for a short-term deal to prove himself and hit the market again next offseason. However, if the Royals are willing to take the risk, a multi-year deal now for Flaherty could put them toward the top of his list. It’s a gamble but a team as needy for pitching as the Royals are needs to put up some risk.
RHP Griffin Canning
Not all additions must come via free agency, and perhaps the most effective way for the Royals to improve their rotation ahead of 2024 is through the trade market. It’s difficult to outbit so many competing teams when the entire league is prioritizing starting pitching. Teams like the Angels and Giants could part with some controllable pitching talent this winter as they look to rebuild and retool. One arm to consider for the Royals is Griffin Canning.
Canning peaked as the Angels’ number four prospect ahead of 2019 but has struggled with health most of his career. He pitched just 127 innings in 2023 — a career high. His ERA of 4.29 is somewhere around average, but he throws strikes (25.9% K%) and limits walks (6.7%) making him a nice trade target. His K-BB% was an impressive 19.2% in 2023. At the same time, his whiff rate ranked 72nd percentile. The ingredients are there for Canning to take a substantial step forward if he can stay healthy.
Hitters who could fit for the Royals
OF Jesse Winker
Wow, how times have changed for Jesse Winker. Just two seasons ago he slashed .305/.394/.556 for the Reds, before being traded to the Mariners that offseason. The Mariners saw him as a serious addition to help them take the next leap and the trade crashed and burned. He was slightly above average with a 104 wRC+ in 2022. Then, in 2023 he appeared in just 61 games with a miserable 65 wRC+.
Nonetheless, Winker’s career walk rate is 12.9% and that hasn’t fell of much at all these last two seasons. The largest decline in his game has been power output, but at still just 30 years old there is hope for a resurgence. Unfortunately, Winker’s outfield defense isn’t much to write home about and he profiles best as a designated hitter. A DH that can’t hit isn’t valuable in the least. This is a risky buy-low option if the Royals feel he can return somewhat to form next season.
OF Alex Verdugo
There was a look at an Alex Verdugo trade earlier this week which gives a better idea on what he could bring to the Royals. Entering a contract year in 2024 could hamper some of the trade value the Red Sox can get back, but he will still be costly. Verdugo is still just 27 years old and finished 2023 with a 98 wRC+. He’s declined each season at the plate since a breakout 2019 season with the Dodgers. That year, he slashed .294/.342/.475 with 12 home runs and a very low 13.0% strikeout rate.
Still, there is hope he can bounceback at the plate and the uncertainty in his value at the plate could be yet another limiting factor in what Boston can get back on trade value. Still, he was worth 2.0 fWAR last season despite being somewhat average at the plate.
1B Rhys Hoskins
First base hasn’t been discussed much at all as a focus for the Royals this fall. I’d argue that it needs to be discussed much more. Vinnie Pasquantino is the presumptive Opening Day starter after missing most of 2023 with a torn labrum. His rookie season was impressive. He finished with a 136 wRC+ but looked a tad more down to earth in the limited sample we saw this past season. He’s also had some back issues in his career that limited his draft stock some.
Despite how hopeful the organization should be around Pasquantino’s future value, there still needs to be a better backup plan should next season hit a snag. Right now, the options are Nick Pratto, Nick Loftin, and maybe C.J Alexander? Rhys Hoskins has become a free agent, with the Phillies turning to Bryce Harper at first base. Pairing him with Vinnie to let the two split time between first and DH would be an under-the-radar strong move for Kansas City.
Hoskins, much like Pasquantino, missed much of the 2023 season. He missed time due to an ACL tear in March. The last we saw of Hoskins was in 2022 when he slashed .246/.332/.462 with a 10.7% walk rate and 30 home runs. That’s some serious upside. It was also his worst season by wRC+ (122) since 2019. The potential for that sort of offensive production is the type of upside that Kansas City should be pursuing and might not be a priority from others on the open market.
3B Jeimer Candelario
Candelario, the longtime Detroit Tiger, spent much of last season with the Nationals and Cubs. Over those 140 games he slashed .251/.336/.471 with 22 home runs and a 9.2% walk rate. He’d be a welcome addition that provides both the power and the on-base presence that the Royals are searching for. He’s spent much of his career thus far playing third base but has notable time as a first baseman as well.
That flexibility could be a replacement to the Matt Duffy role from last season and — much like Hoskins would — could provide a backup option should Vinnie Pasquantino need a bit of a slower return from injury. Candelario has reportedly already drawn interest from the Angels, Diamondbacks, and Reds but there’s still time for Kansas City to make an offer for his services.