The Kansas City Royals have struggled to develop starting pitching for the better part of two decades. More recently this could be characterized best by the struggles of the 2018 draft class. Before that, it was early round failures such as Ashe Russell and Nolan Watson. For many reasons, the franchise simply hasn’t been able to right the ship of their pitching development. More recently, the results have been a little more promising. Last season, we saw plenty of arms start to show improvement from Tyson Guerrero to David Sandlin.

The latter, of course, was traded away on Saturday. Kansas City sent Sandlin to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever John Schreiber. The move hurts, especially considering how much of a riser Sandlin has been since being drafted in 2022. He has a great fastball and had a great chance to be one of the team’s best prospects in 2024. Instead, the front office has cashed in their chips early and the payout was a proven MLB reliever with three years of control and an inconsistent track record. The move brings up a great question: how healthy is the team’s pitching outlook for the next handful of seasons?

Even without Sandlin, there are still plenty of arms to follow. They can best be separated by the “waves” that are listed below.

The Royals hope that upcoming waves of pitching talent will supplement the MLB roster

Wave One – ETA: 2025

Headlined by: RHP Chandler Champlain, RHP Mason Barnett, LHP Noah Cameron

This trio of arms has started to move through the system together. They each pitched in High-A in 2023 and by the end of the year, all three were at Northwest Arkansas together as well. Beyond that, they’ve also become close friends off the field. This offseason we’ve talked to both Chandler Champlain and Noah Cameron and both mentioned the bond that the trio has started to build. Cameron, the lefty of the bunch, has the best command and throws an excellent changeup. He’s worked on building back velocity this offseason and also added a cutter.

Champlain has the mindset to be one of the best starters in the system. He has a fierce mentality on the mound and that plays well with his aggressive use of the zone. He’s worked this offseason on a new circle-changeup and splitter. Both should give him another look to throw at hitters and could make his results even better. Last but not least comes Mason Barnett. He won the Paul Splittorff Pitcher of the Year Award in 2023 after leading the system in strikeouts. Barnett was even better after a mid-season promotion to Northwest Arkansas and leans most on an excellent fastball/slider combination.

Wave Two – ETA: Early 2026

Headlined by: Luinder Avila, Steven Zobac, Ryan Ramsey

Wave two offers a lot more reliever risk than the first wave, but these arms are just as solid when everything is going right. Avila has been with the organization the longest after signing with the team as an international free agent. That was back in 2018. Since then, he’s given steady innings and developed his arsenal to be more effective. Last season, Avila took his fastball to the mid-90s and finished the season with 102 strikeouts.

Zobac and Ramsey are the newcomers to the trio. Zobac debuted last season with plenty of fanfare. He struck out 18 and walked just one over his first seven innings as a pro. His slider is his best pitch but the fastball is underrated and he commands it well. In fact, he commands everything well. Zobac could move through the system quickly as a college product with good control of his arsenal. Ramsey, on the other hand, is a bit further out. An injury shortened his 2023 season but didn’t stop him from setting the Columbia franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings.

Wave Three – ETA: Late 2026

Headlined by: Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, Henry Williams

When they were drafted back in 2021, we all hoped that the duo of Mozzicato and Kudrna should be ready by 2026. They fell a year behind, mostly due to slow development in Low-A. Instead of starting 2023 in Quad Cities, both were back at Columbia and worked their way up midseason. Mozzicato is the best pitching prospect in the system based on projectability alone. He consistently creates swing-and-miss despite his low-90s velocity. Once the velocity comes, he’s only going to be better. The command still needs work.

Kudrna commands the baseball better but hasn’t quite struck out as many batters as you’d think. He does miss bats, however, leading to a high swinging strike rate. The biggest missing link is a true out-pitch. Kudrna’s slider is excellent, and his heater has touched 97 inconsistently. Next, he just needs to learn how to put guys away. Finally, Henry Williams fits in here. He’s a year older but along the same timeline due to his lost time to injury. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as the other two, but could raise that as he continues working back to full strength.

Wave Four – ETA: 2028

Headlined by: Blake Wolters, Emmanuel Reyes, Hiro Wyatt

This group is far away but offers the highest upside of any coming wave of pitchers. Reyes is intriguing, based on how developed his command is at such a young age. His fastball velocity is yet to consistently stick in the mid-90s, but he creates excellent horizontal movement on the pitch. That could make it a plus offering if the velocity ever comes.

Wolters and Wyatt have the velocity, but command and arsenal refinement matter more. Wolters has an ace upside, much like Mozzicato. We just haven’t seen him pitch in affiliated baseball yet. Some have said he already has the best fastball in the farm system and we should get to see it in Low-A this season. Wyatt is up there in velocity as well with good spin, but a bit further behind Wolters. Wyatt needs a better third pitch to lean on, but the fastball/slider combination is an excellent starting point.

Wave Five – ETA: 2029

Headlined by: Marwys Jorge, Weskendry Espinoza

We’re in the weeds now, clearly, but these players have interesting upside. A lot can still happen, so it’s really just the makings of the next wave of pitching prospects rather than a truly established group. Marwys Jorge signed with the Royals back in January 2023 for $450,000. He trained with former Royal Edinson Volquez before signing. It’s a projectable fastball that isn’t there yet, of course. Scouts have mentioned Sandy Alcantara as a comparable arm. I see a little bit of Yordano Ventura in there as well.

Espinoza is just as raw, maybe more so. He signed with Kansas City back in 2021 and has taken a slower path through the system. He spent 2021, 2022, and 2023 in the Dominican Summer League. Normally by now, prospects would’ve made their way to Surprise. Last year it started to click some, however. Espinoza pitched 27.0 innings for DSL Blue last summer. He finished the season with a 1.30 ERA and a career-high 26.8% K%. He creates wicked movement on his breaking ball and could be a reliever long-term. Again, this isn’t really a true wave of starter prospects — just the makings of one.