The Kansas City Royals 2021 Draft class has had three full seasons to settle in. The class was headlined by a quartet of early-round prep prospects. To this point, none of the 21 draft selections have reached the Major Leagues. Five have reached Triple-A. All 21 of the drafted players went on to sign with Kansas City that summer but eight are no longer with the organization as we leave 2024 behind. With now three full seasons to evaluate the class, let’s look back and evaluate how the group looks.

Early Round Selections (Rounds 1-5):

Selections: LHP Frank Mozzicato, RHP Ben Kudrna, 2B Peyton Wilson, C Carter Jensen, RHP Shane Panzini, RHP Eric Cerantola

The book is still out on this group, mostly due to the number of prep prospects that fell in this range. The Royals notably went underslot with Mozzicato at seventh overall. Those savings allowed them to sign both Kudrna and Jensen away from commitments to Louisiana State. To this point, Jensen has found the most success. He’s playing in this year’s Fall League and has been fantastic thus far. He is currently the highest ranked prospect from this group, coming in at no. 9 on our 2024 end of year rankings.

Kudrna represented the Royals at the 2024 Futures Game but has pitched to mix results in the minor leagues thus far. In 2024 he struggled to a 5.29 FIP with Double-A Northwest Arkansas. That’s better than Frank Mozzicato has fared, sadly. Mozzicato has yet to pitch above High-A. He pitched to a solid 3.45 ERA with High-A Quad Cities in 2024 but a 4.72 FIP and a low 21.3% strikeout rate both give signs of worse results on the horizon.

Peyton Wilson, Shane Panzini, and Eric Cerantola have all been volatile prospects thus far in their pro careers. Wilson once looked like a center fielder of the future. Now, he’s utility man depth after spending two full seasons at the Double-A level. Panzini struggled both on the mound and with injury in 2024. He’s pitched in the Fall League with Carter Jensen to get more work in but his stuff doesn’t incite much confidence in a future big league future. Of the three, only Cerantola seems like a safe bet to one day pitch in the Majors. His stuff is outstanding, evidenced by a strikeout rate north of 30% in each of the last two seasons. Command has been a limiting factor, however, and may limit his long-term upside.

Best selection: C Carter Jensen (A)

Worst selection: RHP Shane Panzini

Mid-round Selections (Rounds 5-11):

Selections: 2B Dayton Dooney, LHP Noah Cameron, SS Ryan Cepero, OF Parker Bates, LHP Shane Connolly, SS Brennon McNair

As far as mid-rounds go, this is somewhat par for the course. The Royals have some cost-saving selections in this mix that allowed them to go over-slot for Brennon McNair. Among the group, Dooney, Connolly, and Bates are all out of the organization. Bates and Connolly have both retired and Dooney became a free agent twice, once after being picked up by the Dodgers organization. Cameron is the shining star of this group. He entered that 2021 draft with health concerns following Tommy John Surgery. He’s worked his way back to full health and looks poised to claim an MLB roster spot as early as 2025 Opening Day.

McNair still offers some level of upside. He’s already entering his age-22 season and is yet to play above Low-A. However, he showed some signs of development in 2024 with upticks in power production. Unfortunately, a very below-average hit tool is the limiting force for McNair and may prevent him from ever becoming a true top prospect in the farm system.

Best selection: LHP Noah Cameron

Worst selection: 2B Dayton Dooney

Late-round Selections (Rounds 12-20):

Selectons: LHP Tyson Guerrero, RHP Patrick Halligan, LHP Caden Monke, OF River Town, RHP Anthony Simonelli, C Luca Tresh, RHP Harrison Beethe, 3B Cam Williams, LHP Jack Aldrich

Among this group, Halligan, Beethe, Williams, and Aldrich are all no longer in the organization. Halligan has caught on in the Braves system. None of this group have made their way to the majors with lefty Tyson Guerrero as the only one on the cusp. Guerrero started his professional career with struggles but has caught on of late. He has an excellent slider and could be a force in the Major League bullpen as early as this upcoming season.

Anthony Simonelli is pitching in the Fall League this year and shined with Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2024. Luca Tresh and River Town have seen varying levels of hype as well. Tresh ranked among the system’s best catching prospects for a time, but stagnant development and higher upside options have since dropped his long-term outlook. He should get a chance to test Triple-A for the first time in 2025 but simply hasn’t been able to produce enough offensively or defensively to force his name into the team’s future plans.

Best selection: LHP Tyson Guerrero

Worst selection: RHP Harrison Beethe

Overall draft class grade: B-

Entering 2025, we’ve seen enough from all 21 of these prospects to give an informed grade on how the Royals fared in this draft. Mozzicato and Kudrna could still raise the grade as they continue their professional careers, but Mozzicato especially needs to take strides forward to improve this stock. Jensen and Cameron are the heavy lifters here and really raise the grade substantially. Others such as Kudrna and Guerrero have shown an ability to generate swing-and-miss and it’s still easy to see a path for them to become valuable big-leaguers eventually.

Despite his slow development, the team’s under-slot strategy with Frank Mozzicato may have worked out anyway. The Royals were able to select and sign both Jensen and Kudrna as a result and if even one of those two becomes an everyday big leaguer then it’s safe to say it worked. Behind Mozzicato were selections such as Kumar Rocker (didn’t sign), Brady House, Harry Ford, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Jackson Merrill, and Carson Williams. You can always play hindsight 20/20 with MLB drafts, and in this case it’s difficult to feel too poorly about what the Royals pulled off. Plenty of other teams passed on Merrill and Williams who both went in the back of the first round.

The class needs Cameron and Jensen to pan out desperately to truly remain well graded. With an outside chance of Mozzicato and Kudrna still putting it together as well as Cerantola and Guerrero as potential MLB relievers, there’s still a lot to like about how this class turned out for the Royals.