If the Guardians played in another division, I’d probably enjoy them more as a baseball team.  They seem to be a breeding ground for quirky baseball players like José Ramírez and Steven Kwan. Even their now-retired manager Terry Francona was a lovely, eccentric individual who was easy to root for.  Unfortunately, because the Guardians are some of the Royals’ closest and toughest competition, I have an obligation to root against them, even if this projection aims to be as unbiased as possible.

Same old team, the same cheap owners

I’m breaking the format I used for the Twins and Tigers projections because the Guardians did screw all this off-season.  They spent $4 million this off-season. Four million dollars total. Their one free agent signing was Austin Hedges at $4 million for one year. That’s it. Even if you include their trade for Scott Barlow (yes, that Scott Barlow), his arbitration salary will be very similar to that of Cal Quantrill, who was traded out to Colorado. The team’s payroll is estimated to be identical to last year’s, comfortably putting them in the bottom five.

The biggest change for the Guardians in 2024 is their manager.  Longtime and future Hall of Fame Skipper, Terry Francona, has retired from the job. It’s impossible to predict what a change in management will bring to a team. At the same time, it’s easy to think of the team as better with his leadership. His presence will be missed. Francona’s replacement is two-time All-Star catcher Steven Vogt, who Royals fans might be familiar with if they’ve watched the end of the 2014 AL Wild Card Game.  Vogt’s playing days only just ended in 2022, so it’ll be interesting to see how quickly he picks up managerial skills, but again, a rookie replacing a beloved veteran could go in any direction.

You already know who it is

The Guardians will roll out a nearly identical pitching staff to last year’s, and we know how well they develop pitchers. Expect that to remain the case. The only surprise is that they don’t have a true ace-like pitcher this year, but they still present a floor most organizations dream of. The expected five-man rotation of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams are all projected to pitch at least 130 innings with ERAs around four or well below it. Even if/when injuries occur, they have several layers of depth to catch their fall. There are five more pitchers, prospects or otherwise, who project to pitch 100 or so respectable innings.

Bieber is particularly interesting to me because he’s lost a lot of velocity over the last couple of years, but reports from Spring Training suggest it’s coming back. The former Cy Young winner getting his mojo back will raise the ceiling for this team a lot. There’s also the fact that he’s in his last year before free agency. If the Guardians aren’t sure-fire contenders early on, they have some big pieces they’ll look to sell.

Two other things worth mentioning about Cleveland’s pitching: one, the bullpen should be good, as it always is. Scott Barlow was bad last year, but he’s a creative pitcher and the Guardians know how to unlock guys like that. Emmanuel Clase had the worst season of his short career and still posted a FIP below three, to say of how good a closer he is. Two, this team is great defensively, with absolute wizards like Giménez at second and Steven Kwan in left. They removed their two worst fielders from last year — shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Oscar Gonzalez — from the roster altogether, leaving them with few holes defensively. The Guardians could win this year’s AL Team Gold Glove.

Hitting more than just baseballs 

I think everyone’s familiar with José Ramírez: portly yet athletic third baseman, possibly future Hall of Famer… AL Central boxing champion. He’s still “only” 31 so he won’t be going away any time soon. But what’s interesting to me is that he’s not expected to carry this offense like he has in past years. There’s a chance the Guardians lineup could be pretty good this year with the inclusions of Brayan Rocchio and Kyle Manzardo, two top-100 prospects who expect to be the full-time shortstop and first baseman respectively. Both projects to hit at an above-average clip. They can add to a respectable core of Steven Kwan, the Naylor brothers, and of course J-Ram.  

There are two worthwhile concerns about this lineup, though. The first is a two-fold problem: those two aforementioned prospects are, at the end of the day, still prospects who might not play as advertised.  This would be awful for Cleveland, who severely lacks depth at pretty much every offensive position.  They need to hit well, or this lineup will thin out. The bottom of it isn’t very pretty, which is the other problem. Myles Straw should still be the regular center fielder and he’s Kyle Isbel with an even worse hitting profile. Right field should be largely occupied by either Ramón Laureano, who was once great but has been on the decline for the past two seasons. Will Brennan factors in as well after a mediocre rookie season.

A lot to like, but not a lot to dream on

There’s a worldline where the Guardians are a good team this year, but I don’t know if we’re in that one. I see a team that was quietly and comfortably mediocre last year and did nothing at present to improve further. I don’t think the Guardians are going to be bad, but I think their actions speak for themselves. This is a rebuilding year while they amass some high-end talent, which will certainly come from this year’s draft. I’m going to say 75-80 wins—which, to be fair, is not too bad for a “rebuild year.”

With my expectations of two good teams and one mediocre team in the AL Central this season so far, could this division be surprisingly exciting?  Next time, we’ll look at the weirdest team in the Midwest, the Chicago White Sox.

Image credit: Tony Dejak, Associated Press