Oh, Detroit. We’re not so different, are we? The Royals and Tigers started their respective rebuilds around 2017. Both teams based them around starting pitching and played above .500 ball in the second half of 2021. Then both teams also plummeted back down instead of building on that momentum. Even with the 2023 seasons being wildly different, I’d say each franchise is looking at 2024 similarly. It’s a great opportunity for our young teams to take a step forward and capitalize on this weak division.
A look at the 2024 Detroit Tigers
Notable subtractions this off-season (with their 2023 bWAR):
SP Eduardo Rodriguez (3.5), DH Miguel Cabrera (-0.4)
Additions:
OF Mark Canha (2.2), SP Kenta Maeda (1.1), SP Jack Flaherty (0.8), RP Shelby Miller (1.5), 3B Gio Urshela (0.8)
Last year, the Tigers were 27th in MLB in wRC+ (89, which is just two points higher than the Royals). They had a team ERA of 4.24, the 17th-best in the majors. This combination of poor offense and mediocre pitching gave them an expected win-loss record of 73-89. That suggests their 78-win season might have been an overperformance. As such, projection systems only have them winning around 78 games again this season.
But I’m going to suggest something different: I think the Tigers are up to something. And I’m gonna be real: if we look at the Royals and talk about how they have a bunch of young talent and how this division should be so easy to win… Could that not apply to the Tigers as well? Here’s what I mean:
Last year, Cole Ragans threw 12 starts in the second half. He posted an ERA and FIP well below three, striking out more than 11 batters per 9 innings. That got everyone in baseball raving about how the Royals have an exciting, young ace all of a sudden. In that same time frame, Tarik Skubal on the Detroit Tigers threw 15 starts and out-paced Ragans’ strikeout rate. He posted a higher ERA but a much lower FIP and walked far fewer batters. “Peak deGrom” seems like an extreme thing to say, but in 80 innings, Skubal was. He posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 7 and had a FIP of 2.00. That’s not normal. Skubal is the best-kept secret in baseball right now. Maybe I’m missing something really important, but don’t say I didn’t warn you if he keeps this up. This is a very dangerous pitcher the Royals will have to see at least a couple of times this season.
Injuries and missed potential have derailed the Tigers’ current rebuild
The Tigers’ rebuild has seen a myriad of injuries to their pitching staff. Most namely, former first-rounder Matt Manning and 2018’s first overall pick, Casey Mize. Manning missed a lot of time in 2022 due to a forearm strain, which didn’t seem to turn into anything worse, but last year had to be placed on the IL twice for a fractured foot. When healthy, he can be expected to be a solid, middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. Mize has a much higher upside but sat out almost all of the last two seasons. At first, he missed time with Tommy John Surgery then suffered an undisclosed back injury. It’s hard to say how good he’ll actually be, but he was the best pitching prospect in baseball for a reason when he got to the Majors.
If Skubal and Mize can live up to their ace potential, they’ll be supported by at least two more starting pitchers that I’ll call “interestingly decent.” Kenta Maeda was brought in on a modest two-year deal, looking to be an average starter again after missing a lot of time with a torn UCL. Their other big free agent signing is a one-year deal with Jack Flaherty, who has flashed ace upside from time to time in his career. Lately, he has tumbled down in performance over the last few years. So far, Flaherty’s velocity has been reportedly up in his Spring Training outings, suggesting a comeback might be in the cards.
The Tigers have some lineup questions to answer this season
I think the Tigers should expect to field one of the better pitching staffs in the game this season, including a bullpen that has three very good relievers on the back end. The more troublesome aspect of this team is the hitting. In my opinion, this was the year for Detroit to buy into a premier free-agent hitter like Matt Chapman or Cody Bellinger. Instead, they traded for the good-but-not-great Mark Canha and Gio Urshela.
These new hitters might help the Tigers some, but they’ll have to see improvements from within to take a true step forward. The good news is they’ve already seen that with their two most important players. Former top prospects, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, not only improved upon their rookie seasons but also project to improve further. They have two more premium-hitting prospects on the way: third baseman Jace Jung and the cooly-named Colt Keith. Keith is a ball-demolishing second baseman who has already been given an extension of up to nine years.
Do the Tigers have a chance to win the Central in 2024?
That all being said, the upside of such young players can be questionable if they haven’t been complete slam-dunk talents throughout their budding careers. Greene projects to be the most valuable player on the Tigers with 2.8 fWAR, which is just 79th in baseball. Meanwhile, the bottom of this roster is Bad with a capital B; a B for Baez, and for “bruh” when you watch his swing decisions half the time. We’re talking the second-lowest wRC+ in baseball, only above the guy that got punched in the face by José Ramirez, while being paid $23 million a year for another four years. It’s going to take a lot of effort for this lineup to put it all together from top to bottom.
But I’m going to be nice to the fellow ALC team that’s had a rough and overly long rebuild. Call this a hot take, good sportsmanship, or just plain madness, but I’m gonna put it in: the Tigers are my pick to win the American League Central this year. Not that I want a team other than KC to be at the top, but for all the talk of how the Royals could see a lot of internal improvement and break through a weak division, I think the same points can apply to Detroit as well. I think their pitching staff is fun and exciting while their hitting core is on the upswing. I’ll expect 88 wins for the Detroit Tigers… but who knows what will actually happen. Next time, we’ll take a look at the most erratic team in the division, the Cleveland Guardians.
Image credit: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports
