We’ve come to the final part of the AL Central Preview series, the Royals. Naturally, you’ve heard a lot about the Royals and what they’ve been up to, but it’s only fair to give them the same treatment I gave the other teams. So, biases aside, how do I think the Royals will do this season?
Notable subtractions (with their 2023 bWAR): SP Zack Greinke (1.0), RP Dylan Coleman (-0.8), RP Taylor Clarke (-0.9), RP Jackson Kowar (-0.6)
Additions *inhales*: RP Nick Anderson (0.7), SP Kyle Wright* (-0.6), UTIL Garrett Hampson (1.3), RP Will Smith (0.3), SP Seth Lugo (1.8), RP Chris Stratton (0.5), SP Michael Wacha (2.4), RF Hunter Renfroe (-0.6), 2B/OF Adam Frazier (1.7), RP John Schreiber (0.8), C Austin Nola (-0.5)
*Won’t be playing in 2024.
The Royals signed and acquired a lot of players. You can’t even count on your fingers unless you have a very, very special condition — that’s eleven players added to the team. Granted, some of them might not actually make the Opening Day roster (Anderson, Schreiber, and Nola all have options), but even if some players get stashed in Omaha, the Royals still underwent the largest overhaul of any MLB team this winter.
How Did We Get So Dark?
While it’s fun to think about the Royals as a good team with so many new players, let’s understand something important… this team was really, really bad last year. As a team, their wRC+ was 87. Jarrod Dyson posted an 88 wRC+ in 2015, and if we all remember correctly that Dyson wasn’t particularly famous for hitting baseballs, you might vaguely understand how bad that mark is for an entire team. Generally, you’d want to have an ERA under four… the Royals’ entire staff was above five. The only teams with higher ERAs were the A’s, who might not even have a home stadium in a year or two, and the Rockies, who are the Rockies. 106 losses aren’t enough to describe it: the Royals SUCKED last year.
Injuries, underperformance, and a complete lack of depth pretty much everywhere can explain this catastrophe. Vinnie Pasquantino was expected to be the team’s best hitter, but after hitting feebly for a couple of months, his entire shoulder came apart. Kris Bubic looked to be emerging as a breakout pitcher but blew his arm out after two good starts. Age seemed to take a toll on Zack Greinke and Salvador Perez. Brady Singer never found his footing. Jordan Lyles was on the team. The list goes on.
An abundance of calamities forced players like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mike Mayers on the roster for much longer than necessary — they probably shouldn’t have been on a Major League roster to begin with. Even mediocre players like Hampson and Stratton can add a few wins to this roster simply because their presence helps prevent the Royals from settling for 4A players as they did last year.
A Rebuild Successfully Failing
The Royals didn’t expect to lose 106 games in 2023; not when the season started, and certainly not when the rebuild officially began in 2018. Thanks to pitching development that was behind the times, an overly sentimental approach to Major League players, and just general stubbornness from past leadership, the Royals haven’t won 75 games in a season since 2017. No other team in baseball can say that for themselves.
Yet, the Royals seemed to surge towards the back end of the season. Thanks to trades they randomly stumbled upon last year, the Royals picked up very intriguing players like Cole Ragans, Nelson Velázquez, and James McArthur, as well as late-blooming talent like Freddy Fermin and Dairon Blanco. Even the natural, home-grown talent like MJ Melendez and Michael Massey showed signs of progress as the season moved along.
But of course, the rare but recurring conversation about the Royals last year and moving forward has been about Bobby Witt Jr. The 2019 #2 overall pick who became the (debatable) top prospect in baseball going into 2022 began to live up to his potential. With a nearly unparalleled combination of power and speed, Witt hit 30 home runs and stole 49 bases, letting him place seventh in MVP voting. With his strikeouts dropping and a complete turnaround on defense, Bobby Witt Jr. can only expect to maintain or improve his production. He’s the kind of player that will dictate the Royals’ success or lack thereof. If he flops, the team likely goes down with him. If he soars, this team might be tough to beat.
How High Can You Leap?
Many expect the Royals to improve significantly this season, with projections ranging anywhere between 71 and 76 wins. I think that makes sense. The Royals’ Pythagorean record last season, aka their expected record based on runs scored and allowed, suggests the team lost eight more games than they should have. Some small things naturally turning for the better will make the team better by a few games, and all the free agents will add a few more wins on top.
If we’re being honest, the Royals didn’t bring in a full-course gourmet meal of prospects this season. They did bring in a lot of players, but some played better than expected last year, such as Wacha, while some are mediocre entirely, like Renfroe and Hampson. This influx of players will give the Royals some much-needed safety and control of their roster, but even together the moves don’t scream “contender!” The heavy-duty production will still come from the youth movement, barring another breakout from Salvy.
So… I’m going to side with the projections. While I want the Royals to go 140-22, my actual prediction and expectation of this team is around 75 wins. They won’t be a good team. They won’t be a bad team. They’ll simply be a non-offensively mediocre team. One important thing to keep in mind, though: this year isn’t expected to be the peak anyway.
This is my last article projecting the AL Central teams; I might have another piece, to sum up how I see this entire division, but for now, I expect that the Royals finish fourth, only above the White Sox who lose 90+. The Guardians will stay a little below .500, leaving the Twins and Tigers to fight for the title. I think the Tigers will be a bit of a surprise team and win this division, with the Twins just barely missing the playoffs. Now I can’t wait for the White Sox to win 97 or something.
