After two hard fought games in New York, the Royals game away 1-1 in the ALDS against the Yankees. Today will be the first game in Kansas City and the Royals are looking to take the all-important game 3 to put the pressure on the Yankees to win 2 straight. Teams who go down 1-2 have only won the series 27.6% of the time which makes today’s game very valuable. The Royals lost in a heartbreaker in game one with some major walk issues and struggles finding the zone but bounced back in game two behind a great start from Cole Ragans and another lockdown performance from the bullpen. The Royals bats have also awoken this series putting up 9 runs in the last two games. With Lugo on the mound today the Royals will hope to keep the momentum going in their direction and get a big win tonight in Kauffman.
Pitching wise today we will see one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season, Seth Lugo will take the mound for the Royals, and they will hope to continue to ride the wave of elite pitching and keep moving forward today. Lugo has had a career year with the Royals this year, he finished 2nd in the majors in IP with over 200 innings, as well as a 3.00 ERA. Lugo has been great in his career against the Yankees with a 2.55 ERA and a 5-2 record against them as well as 45Ks in 35 innings. Lugo has had great success against Judge as well with Judge hitting 0-8 against him in his career. With how great the Royals bullpen has been since September; Kansas City will look to lean on their pitchers again to get the biggest win of their season.
On the other side the Yankees will bring Clarke Schmidt to the mound who has been great this year in the time he has found on the mound. Schmidt has posted a 2.85 ERA this season over 85.1 innings and has 93 Ks over that time. Schmidt missed significant time this season with a strained right lat in late May and kept him out about 2 months which has hurt his totals, but his averages are great. Schmidt has great breaking stuff with his pitches ranking 96th percentile in breaking run value this season. The Royals have struggled against breaking balls this season which may mean for a bad matchup for them against Schmidt, but if they can stay disciplined and work the count, the Royals offense should find success tonight.
Both bullpens have been great in the playoffs, the Yankees pen hasn’t allowed a run yet, and the Royals pen has been great outside of some game one walks. The Royals will really want to try to tag Schmidt early in the game to give themselves some security when the Yankees move to the pen. On the other hand, the Yankees will likely try to get Lugo out of the game quickly if they can try to get to the Royals bullpen which has been shaky in the past. With Lugo’s success vs the Yankees in the past, I think the best formula for a win will be to tag the Yankees early and try to hold on to the lead down the stretch of the game.
Offensively both teams have had some oddities in this series. With two of the best players in baseball between Witt and Judge, there were high expectations of some fireworks on offense coming into the ALDS. But both stars have come out flat with Judge’s postseason struggles continuing and Witt going 0-10 in the series so far. Witt had a good series against the Orioles, and I would expect him to bounce back eventually, and Judge had continued his strikeout struggles with one of the highest postseason K% of all time. But between both guys, you can’t expect they will be quiet for long, and you have to expect they will make an impact at some point.
The Royals lineup will have several lefties in the line up with the way that Q likes to mix, and match based off the opponent. Adam Frazier has had success against Schmidt in the past going 4-8 with a HR and will likely have a key spot in the lineup. Q will probably move Garcia back down in the lineup and Massey will take the leadoff spot again. Also expect to see Melendez in left and a similar lineup to the past. Hampson has been hot and may find his way into the game later. Hitters will need to be patient for their pitch and have discipline if they hope to have the best success tonight in the K.
One thing that needs to be mentioned is the reality of how much of a factor home field advantage will be for Kansas City. Royals and Yankees stadiums are opposites, with the Yankees stadium having one of the shortest outfields in baseball, whereas Kauffman is one of the deepest. Yankees outfielders are not known for their defense where the Royals fielders have been great. Kaufmann will give the Royals an advantage defensively and should play a part in the power hitting for the Yankees. It’s hard to hit homers in Kauffman and the stadium will limit the Yankees ability to hit it out of the park. Royals Park gives a real advantage to the Royals ability to put the ball in play and run, while it hurts the Yankees home run hitting. Kauffman should play a factor throughout the next two games.
The Royals will look to ride the success of their pitchers and really hope to get on top of the Yankees early on. This lineup has the ability to tag Schmidt and if they are able to get to him I really like their chances. Lugo will keep them in the game and give them a chance, and when the ball gets to the bullpen the hope is they can remain hot. Holding down the Yankees offense has been a tall task, but the Royals pitchers have been up for the challenge. The biggest game of the season for Kansas City tonight will come down to early offense and discipline at the plate. Be ready for a good one in Kauffman today!!!
