As we draw closer to the 2024 MLB Draft, the talk around the Kansas City Royals has narrowed to two prospects. The draft kicks off with day one on Sunday, July 14. Talk of the town ties the Royals closely with Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith and prep infielder Bryce Rainer. Although personally, I carry a preference for the first-round hitter strategy this draft, that isn’t to say that Hagen Smith would be a poor choice for the Royals. He’s no Paul Skenes — the first pitcher off the board in the 2023 MLB Draft — but he’s electric in his own right and comes in as the best arm available in this year’s class on my draft board. So who exactly is Hagen Smith, the pitcher?
Smith’s pitch arsenal isn’t the kitchen sink, but the results are exceptional
Chase Burns throws more of a full four-pitch mix when compared to Hagen Smith. Smith utilizes more of a two-pitch mix so far, leaning heavily on a fastball/slider combination this season with Arkansas. He mixes in a changeup as well, but uses it more against right-handed hitters and rarely looks to it against lefties. Leaning heavily on those two weapons, Smith pitched to a 2.04 ERA this season with the Razorbacks. Across 84.0 IP, he struck out 161 batters, setting the Division I record with a gaudy 17.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Smith seems to know his identity as a pitcher. He knows what he does well, and knows how dominant his stuff can be and he leans on it continually. He throws from a low three-quarter arm slot. The below-average release point gives Smith some deception not unlike Chris Sale. He posts average extension, but from what I’ve seen the difficulty that hitters have in picking up the baseball out of the hand makes Smith’s arsenal play up well above what the metrics alone might suggest.
Fastball
The fastball sits in the mid-90s, touching the upper 90s at times. He garners 12-14 inches of horizontal break with the heater. The offering plays well up in the zone, and he loves to pepper the outside half of the zone. Hitters in college simply had no chance of catching up with it. It gets on hitters in a hurry, and that’s only compacted more by the deceptive release point.
Slider
Behind the fastball comes the slider. It’s perhaps the best pitch in the arsenal for Smith, sitting somewhere between a traditional power slider and a sweeper. He averages 83-85mph with the pitch, spinning it well around 2500-2600rpm. Smith has worked the slider up as high as 87 mph this season. Finally, Smith’s split changeup comes in somewhere around 87-89mph with 13-15 inches of arm-side fading action.
This season, Smith pitched to a 41% whiff rate with his fastball — 20% above average. The slider is a legitimate weapon against both lefties and right-handed hitters alike. Although it may not be as many weapons as Chase Burns offers, I believe the foundation remains as good, if not better.
Projecting Smith’s path and success in the pro ranks
Should Smith make it to the Royals at six, and should they draft him there with their first-round pick, he’d slot in as the team’s best pitching prospect by far. The gap between Smith and any other arm in the farm system is very wide, both due to the stuff and the long-term ceiling. Smith would just barely miss out on the top spot in the farm system, coming in just behind Blake Mitchell as the number two prospect in the organization. The foundation gives me a lot of long-term optimism, whether it be as a high-leverage lockdown bullpen arm or a bonafide frontline starter. Getting to either of those places will be determined by how his big-league organization chooses to develop him.
Rounding out the pitch mix and raising the ceiling
Personally, I’d love to see Smith settle with his slider in the 84-86mph range and start using the split-changeup more. Making that pitch more effective against both right-handed hitters and lefties alike could make him much more effective against professional hitters. That’s where I’d have him start in his debut season before looking to round out the rest of his pitch mix. After that’s settled, he’s the type of arm that could find success by adding a cutter. Let the current slider sit where it already is — I don’t think tweaking with a good thing is necessary. If Smith can mix in a cutter, I think the profile becomes somewhat similar to a familiar lefty.
Cole Ragans currently averages 86 mph with his slider and sits 90-92mph with the cutter. The horizontal movement profile is rather similar, with the key wrinkle coming in that velocity and more vertical drop with the slider. Smith gives his pro team a solid foundation to eventually round out that pitch arsenal and raise the ceiling that much more. In all, Smith is well worth the sixth overall pick, and shouldn’t be seen by anyone as a blunder of a first-round pick. In what was an extremely offensive-friendly college environment this season, Smith cemented his place as perhaps the best single-season strikeout arm in the history of Division I baseball. That context shouldn’t be lost on fans ahead of Sunday’s draft.
