There has been plenty of debate over this lineup’s lead-off spot. With the regression of Maikel Gracia and a lack of elite contact skills to replace him at the top, there isn’t a clear answer for that role. This leads me to the notion that there is potentially more of a shakeup within this squad. With a picture of the team’s stat lines and a piece of paper covering the names, my goal is to take the name and expectations out of the line-up building process. It could get a little weird.
I may have a different method than you and I can’t argue that Matt Quatraro’s methods haven’t worked well enough for us to sit comfortably above .500 to this point in the season. Having looked at this squad from a distance all season, I believe it would be an interesting experiment to try other players in interesting spots to maximize their output. I’ll be able to figure out who most of these players are as we build this hypothetical. I mean, there’s only one guy with an average of .320… The numbers will be based on statlines going into the All-Star break. The lineup will be my hypothetical take on the most production by role.
Without further ado, Here’s your lineup:
1: 175 AB, .291/.344/.411, 9 2B, 4 HR, 14 BB, 35 K, 0 SB
I know exactly who this is and it doesn’t make much sense when the name is attached. However, the only thing not to like is the lack of speed on the basepaths. Suppose you ignore the lack of stolen bases, we are gifted the second-best average on the team, enough power to get into scoring position semi-regularly, and an average ability to get on base. The batting average does carry the on-base skills a little but the 18.5 K% is more than reasonable. These numbers show a contact-driven batter who can put the bat on the ball and get on for the heart of the lineup. The only question: Can the base running remain average enough to warrant the lead-off spot?
2: 387 AB, .323/.369./558, 25 2B, 9 3B, 16 HR, 28 BB, 71 K, 22 SB
There is no world where this isn’t obvious to every single reader. This MLB leader in hits, home run derby finalist, and All-Star would never bat in any other position in this lineup. He is the best hitter on this squad and can maximize his overall potential hitting here. Getting him up to bat early and often is essential to team success. Giving him opportunities to move runners around and knock in runs will elevate the offense as much as one man can. There is some insane alternate future where he moves to the one spot if, and only if, the Royals manage to find someone who could hit for more power and slightly less average.
3: 337 AB, .246/.310/.421, 22 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 32 BB, 51 K, 62 RBI
There was a toss-up between two bats for this spot. Inevitably, the loser of this battle will land in the five spot. What gives our three-hitter the advantage is his ability to get on base and drive in runs. With 22 doubles and 11 home runs, this hitter can get the ball in the air, giving scoring or advancing opportunities to runners whenever there are less than two outs. Alongside his extra-base hits, he gets on base via the walk more than anyone else on the team. While hitting third and being able to drive in runs is important, he still resides in the middle of the lineup. Our three hitter can get on base for the guys behind him to, in turn, move him around. The average leaves a little to be desired but assuming he continues to get on base and drive in runs, we can look past this.
4: 344 AB, .282/.343/.477, 16 2B, 17 HR, 26 BB, 73 K, 62 RBI
This bat plays very well in the third spot of this lineup, but without a clear power hitter to protect him and add home runs he lands here. With a clear 30-35 home run pop and a knack for driving in runs, this bat rounds out the top four nicely. The on-base tool is pretty developed at this point in the season and manages to keep the line moving for the heart of the lineup. There is a real chance for this bat to do even more damage from the three spot. If the team could develop another bat capable of 30-plus home run power the back-to-back potential would skyrocket. Additional power and average could both be gained from another power bat behind him. At the trade deadline, look for a bat that could fill in the five spots and protect this spot.
5: 147 AB, .272/..286/.483, 7 2B, 8 HR, 3 BB, 22 K, 26 RBI
I wish there was a bigger sample size for these numbers. If they maintain, there is solid contact ability here with equal gap power and home run power. With another bat to live in the heart of the lineup, this could be a phenomenal six-hole. The strikeouts worry me a bit when looking for a player to contribute during important moments. The fifth hitter can actively benefit a team by continuing to further impose stress on opposing pitchers deeper into the lineup. There’s a lot to like with the slash and the small sample shows potential 20-plus home run ability. If this guy can continue to hit this way as the season comes to a close, he could potentially bolster the heart of the lineup for a playoff push. At the very least, the 26 RBI prove he has been able to produce with runners on.
6: 235 AB, .226/.297/.387, 14 2B, 8 HR, 23 BB, 45 K, 30 RBI
Some of these numbers hint at an underlying ability to hit better than it seems. The slugging would comfortably live above .450 if the average could blossom. The walks are rock solid even if they don’t jump off the page. Most importantly, the ability to hit doubles seems very prevalent. With these three things in mind, there may be another issue that needs to be addressed. Everything about these numbers (sans the average and on-base) screams five-hitter. I love this bat at six until the numbers stabilize and he can produce a bit more. At the very least, he rounds out the second trio of hitters in this lineup with a very unique mix of contact that suits Kauffman. Upside to move up in the line-up but very productive here in the meantime.
7: 224 AB, .232/.285/.384, 5 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 8 BB, 37 K, 23 RBI
I was at odds with this player for a while. This batter is going to put the ball in play a fair amount, seems to have some speed on the base paths, and may have enough power to run into 15 home runs. This guy looks a lot like a nine-hitter but without any great hitters to fill out the middle, I like his extra boost in contact here. He hasn’t produced many RBI which may be more of an indication towards the few batters who reside in front of him. He won’t walk very often but puts a bat on the ball. If overexposed by this spot these numbers with plunge, but his numbers play to the gaps and could help score 4-6 hitters who can hopefully continue to get on in longer innings.
8: 130 AB, .262/.304/.354, 10 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 8 BB, 37 K, 12 RBI
This is about as small of a sample size as you can run into while still considering this guy a part of the lineup. This late in the season there must be a reason we aren’t seeing him bat more. With the numbers he is putting up, we could argue he is a top-seven hitter in the lineup with limited power. Due to the lack of power, he will struggle to refresh the bases for the top of the lineup. He can, however, hit for a little contact and has the speed to get around the bases in case we see 1-3 after his plate appearance. Personally, I like to hide my lowest ceiling guy here so the nine-hitter can try and benefit the top of the lineup. With a small sample size and little analytical value, there is only so much protecting this spot. This is the most open lineup spot on the squad.
9: 378 AB, .230/.282/.344, 15 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 28 BB, 67 K, 21 SB, 43 RBI
The amount of RBI makes me think this guy has moved around in the lineup quite a bit. He has some speed ability and has accumulated a decent amount of extra-base hits. The doubles and triples stand out to me here showcasing the ability to hit himself into scoring position. His 21 stolen bases prove he can get there eventually if the bat doesn’t cut it. In the nine spot, there is a lot of potential for the best hitters at the top to do something with him after he gets on. If he doesn’t get on, he can’t hurt the squad down here. Hitting after the two worst hitters out of the nine keeps his unsteady bat from hurting in big situations. He may be wasted a bit in the nine spot but without pressure to produce he may see the gap power from those doubles bring in some singles. Boosting the contact skill will be his best chance at moving out of the bottom spot. He has hit some guys in and can get to second base when he hits. Providing some extra pop from the nine spot could boost the offense.
Who’s in this Lineup?
1: Freddie Fermin – C/DH
2: Bobby Witt. Jr. – SS
3: Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B/DH
4: Salvador Perez -C/DH/1B
5: Michael Massey 2B/DH
6: Hunter Renfroe – RF
7: Kyle Isbel – CF
8: Garrett Hampson – LF/2B
9: Maikel Garcia – 3B
Fermin Leading Off…
I wholeheartedly understand why this is going to get hate. He doesn’t run nearly well enough to swing it here. That being said, he has one of the highest OBP on the squad and hits for average better than everyone not in the MVP race. He has numbers similar enough to this from last year for fans to expect he can live somewhere in this range for the rest of the season. Giving him too many at-bats in a premium spot in the lineup could absolutely hurt these numbers. What do we have to lose until we can trade for a legit leadoff man? The occasional BWJ triple? The eye test seems like any chance for Bobby to score from first wouldn’t be hurt by Fermin residing in front of him. Is it unorthodox? 100%. May be worth a shot.
Kyle Isbel Batting 7th is Scary
There’s something to be said about lineup theory. Matt Quatraro has this team sitting solidly above .500 and in the mix for a Wild Card spot. I’m not sure if I would mess with the lineup enough for Isbel to find his way this far up in the lineup, but I like the implication. As off as it sounds I think you maximize your lineup by adding a higher ceiling hitter to your final spot. Isbel can hit just enough to warrant a spot in the lineup with his defense. Garcia could be a legit leadoff man if he figures it out. Why not let him practice for that in-game by leading off for the top of the lineup? Hope that made sense… Anyway, Isbel can hit guys in from third very well. He can also utilize soft contact to keep the line moving. Whether it’s a soft liner or a double in the gap, he can be of use to the team. It’s not like anyone is stepping up to earn this spot right now anyway.
Garrett Hampson Should Not be Necessary Here
The biggest issue to come from this is that even with his small sample size he warrants a spot on the roster. Typically, a handicap is given to players with more at-bats because they have regressed to the mean. Hampson still beat out guys with that handicap. He COULD end up doing this over a full season, but I wouldn’t put money on it. The other options here have massive holes in their numbers. Perhaps there’s some power but little contact. Others have slightly better contact skills but even less power to pair with them. The moral of the story, we absolutely should have another option here.
How Do The Royals Move Forward
With the trade deadline only a couple weeks away there is room to grow this lineup. A bat with power potential would slip into the 5 spot very nicely and extend the bottom of the lineup much more. Thinking somewhere in the 25-plus home run range would benefit the search greatly. If that isn’t on the market, there needs to at least be a .750 OPS in there. Similarly, a leadoff guy with a similar OPS would be incredibly valuable to the lineup. This guy needs to swap some extra power for batting average and baserunning skills.
At the very least, a bat is necessary to get another hitter in this lineup. Two could completely transform the ceiling of this offense and trigger a division run. While there are a couple of things on this hypothetical lineup that make little sense, it does highlight the pretty glaring issues with how it’s operating. If your best option at leadoff is a catcher with below average baserunning, you may need to find a better option. If you have trouble making it past the sixth hitter before running out of .750 OPS hitters, you need a deeper lineup. Moves are sure to be made and based on this lineup there’s clearly a path.
Image credit: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire
