After winning a spot on the Royals’ Opening Day roster, Nelson Velazquez has had a rough start to the 2024 season.
As of Saturday, Velazquez is slashing .212/.287/.337 with a .624 OPS and wRC+ of 77 in 115 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs. That is a significant disappointment from his numbers a year ago when he posted a 130 wRC+ and hit 14 home runs in 147 plate appearances with the Royals after coming over at the Trade Deadline from the Cubs.
Based on this sluggish performance from the 24-year-old Puerto Rican-born outfielder, manager Matt Quatraro has mixed and matched with the Royals lineup, which has often resulted in Velazquez being on the bench lately.
According to Savant, Velazquez doesn’t offer much defensively, as he is one out below average in the outfield this season. Thus, it’s unsurprising that Velazquez has a -0.3 fWAR, the second-worst fWAR of any Royals position player in 2024 (only Hunter Renfroe is worse).
Thus, two questions have been asked among Royals fans regarding Velazquez’s future:
1.) What is contributing to Velazquez’s performance this season?
2.) How long will Quatraro and the Royals stick with him in Kansas City? (i.e., Will the Royals demote him to Omaha sooner rather than later?)
Let’s dive into Velazquez’s data in 2024 and try to answer both of those questions.
Plate Discipline and Contact Still Remain The Same
When looking at Velazquez’s batting eye at the plate and his ability to make contact, a lot has remained the same this year compared to a season ago.
Decision Value, a metric developed by Pitcher List’s Kyle Bland, is an excellent way to evaluate a hitter’s discipline and decision-making at the plate. Here’s the official definition of Decision Value for those unfamiliar with the metric.
Decision Value: Modeled value (runs per 100 pitches) of a hitter’s decision to swing or take, minus the modeled value of the alternative.
Pitcher List.com
Let’s look at Velazquez’s Decision Value rolling charts per 100 pitches from this season and in 2023.
As Royals fans can see, his Decision Value rolling chart has a few more ups and downs this season compared to a year ago when it was more stable. However, his Decision Value+ (the y-axis) is around that same 110 mark in both seasons. Therefore, his struggles this year are not necessarily a matter of Velazquez being over-aggressive or letting too many hittable balls pass by.
Furthermore, despite his poor stats, his strike-zone judgment rolling chart data confirms that Velazquez has demonstrated a disciplined eye at the plate this season.
Velazquez’s Strikezone Judgment+ metric is around 115, which places him close to the 90th percentile of the league in this category. For a club that ranks 23rd in the league in O-Swing% (swings outside of the strike zone), according to Fangraphs, Velazquez’s plate discipline has been certainly welcomed this year.
On the flip side, his contact at the plate has left a bit to be desired this year. His contact percentage is 63%, the worst percentage of any Royals position player in 2024. Furthermore, his contact percentage is 8.5% worse than that of MJ Melendez, who has the second-worst mark in that category on the Royals.
However, making contact has always been an issue for Velazquez. His contact PLV metrics were a little better last year, but as demonstrated in the contact rolling chart data below, it wasn’t much different from what we see from Velazquez this season.
This year, Velazquez’s Contact Ability+ ranked just above 80, which places him in the 10th percentile of the league. Last year, his Contact Ability+ was a little better, with a season average of around 85. That said, there were times in 2024 when he also ranked in the 10th percentile of the league (specifically between September 1st and September 15th).
Nonetheless, his lackluster ability to make contact has affected him recently, especially when finding base hits. Last year, his xBA (expected batting average) was .255, 20 points higher than his actual BA. This year? That’s at .201, and he’s seen a massive dip in his last 50 plate appearances.
On an optimistic note, Velazquez did see a similar swoon in his xBA in 2022 when he was with the Cubs and managed to finish strong at the end of the year. Thus, it will be interesting to see if Velazquez can experience a similar bounce back after hitting new career lows in xBA in his last 30 to 50 plate appearances.
It is just possible that Velazquez will always be this kind of hitter who will see massive waves in his ability to be productive due to his lack of consistency in making contact.
Royals fans shouldn’t think this is a “new” problem with Velazquez.
The metrics show that it has been affecting him throughout his career at the MLB level, and Royals fans didn’t see it last year because his tenure with the Royals was still ultimately such a small sample size.
The Lack of Power Is A Big Change This Year
If there’s been one issue that has been different this year for Velazquez compared to a season ago, it has been his lack of power at the plate thus far in 2024.
With the Royals last year, Velazquez had a .346 ISO and barrel rate of 22%. This year, his ISO is only .125, and his barrel rate is even more lackluster at 5.9%. Furthermore, this season, he has seen a sharp decline in his xSLG (expected slugging percentage).
In his last 30 or so plate appearances, Velazquez’s slugging has hovered around the .200 level. If that’s batting average, one could live with that. However, a .200 slugging percentage is unplayable, especially for a player who doesn’t offer much speed, defense, or contact.
In terms of his Power+ rolling chart data, he has seen a complete 180 in this area over the past two seasons.
Last year, his Power+ stayed around 130 for the entire season. In 2024, he started okay at 110 but plummeted to about 90 on April 25th and has stayed below league average ever since.
Velazquez needs to be an above-average power hitter to be viable as a player at the Major League level.
It seems like questionable fastball production, especially compared to a season ago, has significantly contributed to Velazquez’s struggles in the power department this year.
Here’s a look at Velazquez’s Power+ against fastballs rolling chart data from 2024 and 2023.
Last year, against fastballs, he posted a season average Power+ of just under 140 and sometimes touched the 150 and 160 marks. In 2024, he’s been under that 90th percentile threshold the whole season and has seen his Power+ against fastballs decline from around 118 to around 105, with the latter just slightly above the league average.
For Royals fans who want more data to support this assertion, let’s look at Velazquez’s Statcast metrics against the fastballs from 2023 and 2024.
- 2023: .334 xBA, .827 xSLG, .489 xwOBA, and 93.1 MPH average EV.
- 2024: .253 xBA, .492 xSLG, .353 xwOBA, and 89.8 MPH average EV.
The quality of contact hasn’t been there this year for Velazquez against fastballs. As a result, his overall metrics are suffering, especially regarding power.
His wOBA zone charts against fastballs via Savant from the past two years also present some intriguing data, especially regarding the areas of the zone where Velazquez is struggling against the pitch.
Velazquez is still doing well on inside fastballs, both of the middle and low variety. However, he’s seen a decline this year against all types of middle fastballs and away-middle and away-low fastballs.
In the clip compilation below, I highlight a home run he hit against Houston’s Hunter Brown against a high fastball and a swinging strike he had this year against a similar pitch from Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi.
I would need to dive more into the swing path data (which is coming to Savant soon), but the initial look seems to suggest that Velazquez is swinging under the ball more often than over the top, as he did in 2023. That could explain not just the regression in hitting performance overall but especially against high fastballs this year.
It’s hard to imagine Velazquez producing a nearly .800-plus slugging against fastballs again like last year.
If Velazquez wants to see his outlook improve for the remainder of the season, how he adjusts and performs against fastball pitches could be the key.
Would A Stint In Omaha Help?
Oftentimes, the phrase “he needs to reset and get some confidence” is why a player should get demoted. While that may sometimes be the case, that phrase can conflict for several reasons.
First, a player getting demoted isn’t confidence-boosting in itself. Furthermore, it sets high expectations for them when they go to Omaha. If they mash, that was to be expected (i.e., Nick Loftin). If they don’t, it’s even more deflating to their already-affected confidence (i.e., Nick Pratto).
Second, mashing non-MLB pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark (Werner Park is one) is a false confidence booster and doesn’t always transition to MLB success. Cheslor Cuthbert and Ryan McBroom are recent examples of Royals who mashed in Omaha and couldn’t put it together with the Royals.
If a hitter should be demoted to Omaha, it often should be for two reasons: 1.) They are still prospects with potential and need everyday at-bats. 2.) They need to make a mechanical adjustment that would be better helped by them getting everyday at-bats.
Thus, does Velazquez fall under qualification number two?
It’s possible, and I point to two reasons (I’m loving two’s right now) for a demotion being helpful.
First, Velazquez isn’t making quality contact like he did a year ago. His average exit velocity on batted balls is down from 91 MPH in 2023 to 86.7 MPH in 2024. Furthermore, his hard-hit rate is also down from 48.2% in 2023 to 35.3% in 2024.
That screams either a pitch selection or a mechanical issue with his swing.
Regarding pitch selection, Velazquez has shown solid plate discipline this year, evidenced by his solid decision value+ metrics. Interestingly enough, though, he has not seen many pitches to hit this year, especially compared to last year, and that is evident in his pitch hittability PLV rolling charts.
That could contribute to his struggles this year, as he is not doing enough damage on the few good pitches he gets to hit. Once he sees better pitches to hit (which has been the trend recently), it’s possible that his overall performance could improve.
On the flip side, it’s also possible that he may need to make a slight adjustment in his swing mechanics. Regarding his batted ball metrics, he is not making as much productive contact as he did a year ago.
Here’s a look at his batted ball metrics via Pitcher List:
A few metrics stick out from the table above.
First, his GB% (groundball percentage) is up 4.4% from a year ago, which is not ideal for a power hitter. Second, his sweet spot percentage is down 1.7%, and his ICR (ideal contact rate) is down 6.9%. Lastly, his PC% (poor contact percentage) is up 6.9%, which shows that Velazquez is not squaring up the ball like he did when he first arrived in KC in August.
Can the Royals’ hitting development team address a mechanical issue directly with Velazquez in Omaha for a month or two?
That’s the question JJ Picollo and the Royals’ front office must ask themselves. The Royals have had success not demoting struggling young players like Melendez and Michael Massey in 2023 and letting them work through their struggles at the Major League level.
That said, unlike last year, the Royals are hunting for a playoff spot. Thus, it may make sense to bring up someone like Drew Waters or Loftin, who can help improve this team in a reserve role while Velazquez takes time to figure out those mechanical issues if they are the problem.
It will be interesting to see how long the Royals take to decide.
Velazquez likely has until Memorial Day to prove that he still belongs in Kansas City. If he continues to struggle, he will likely be in Omaha in June.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel