Image Credit: Vincent Carchietta/Imagn Images

As the offseason chugs on, we’re still relatively early in the process. None of the big-ticket free agents have agreed to contracts yet and the market may very well wait for Juan Soto’s decision. The Royals are poised to strike again this winter. General Manager J.J. Picollo has already given indications of where the team will head this time around. They want hitters. Two at least, maybe more. With the return of Michael Wacha, Kansas City says the rotation is set. They aren’t in the market for starters. So which hitters may be of interest? One name available is outfielder Alex Verdugo.

Verdugo debuted with the Dodgers at just 21 years old back in 2017. The Red Sox acquired Verdugo in the Mookie Betts trade and he put together four solid seasons with the Red Sox. By his fourth season, however, Verdugo looked to be on the downtrend and Boston was ready to move on. They did so by trading Verdugo to the division rival Yankees before the 2024 season. He responded with his worst full season to date. Verdugo slashed .233/.291/.356 with the Yankees. All three of those marks are career worst for Verdugo who now hits free agency. Should the Royals have any interest in the 28-year-old corner outfielder?

To determine if Verdugo is of interest, what you’re expecting from him matters most of all

The type of hitter that Verdugo is meant to be will play a huge role in his negotiations this winter. He was named the Dodgers’ Minor League Player of the Year back in 2015. Even then, MLB Pipeline offered some concerns about his long-term power potential. However, there was some hope that Verdugo could develop into a 20+ home run hitter with an ability to hit for average. Now 800 games into his big league career, Verdugo has never once surpassed 20 home runs in a season. He’s maxed out at 13 and has done so three different times. When the Red Sox acquired Verdugo in the Betts trade, he was perhaps the centerpiece. They had hope that he could develop that power and become a force in the middle of their lineup.

That of course hasn’t happened. Even a full season in New York couldn’t boost the power output for Verdugo. If any team is hoping to pay Verdugo in hopes of more power, they’re bound to be disappointed. For that reason, the Royals should be very cautious when it comes to considering the free agent. It all comes down to what the player and his agency, MVP Sports Group, think his long-term future is. For years, it seems as if the future outlook is a heart of the order slugger. The Yankees started him there for much of 2024, batting Verdugo fourth, then fifth. After more struggles, they moved him up to the two spot and even leadoff at times. By August, they resorted to using Verdugo 7, 8, or 9 in their lineup.

If that is the future that the player maintains he can develop, then Kansas City should steer well clear of Verdugo in free agency. He will be asking far too much for what his eventual production will garner. To see a similar case, look no further than former Royal Andrew Benintendi. “Beni” hit 20 home runs in 2017 and 49 total in his first three full seasons with Boston. Much like Boston did with Verdugo, the Royals traded for Benintendi and took a chance that perhaps the power would continue to come through. In year one it did, finishing with a .166 ISO, 27 doubles, and 17 home runs. Then, in his final year with Kansas City that changed. Benintendi lost his power, hit just five home runs all year, and was traded at the deadline to New York.

Benintendi and Verdugo offer some striking similarities

The Chicago White Sox paid up for Benintendi’s services in free agency, paying him $75 million across five years. Now two years into the contract it’s one of the worst in baseball. The White Sox have Benintendi lifting the ball more than ever and he simply isn’t that type of hitter. Some hitters simply aren’t going to produce for power. Instead of forcing that to change, teams would be better advised to put a player in a position to best succeed according to his strengths — not what the team needs him to be. All of this becomes true for Verdugo as well.

Alex Verdugo is not a power hitter. He’s a contact-first outfielder who should be able to hit for average, play average defense in a corner outfield role, and otherwise deepen the bottom half of a big-league lineup. Evidence of this can be found in Verdugo’s 93.2% zone contact rate. He rarely whiffs, doesn’t strike out, and otherwise makes a ton of contact. That contact is fairly weak, however. Verdugo is a contact hitter with limited power who should play solid defense to make up for the lack of power. If Verdugo will take the kind of contract that warrants, he should certainly be on the Royals’ radar.

What’s more likely, however, will be Verdugo seeking the one and only long-term deal he’s likely to get in his career. At 28 years old and coming off a down year, he could bet on himself. A one-year prove-it deal would allow him to bounce back and test the market again next winter. Or, he could hold out for a four or five-year deal this winter paying him for that unrealized potential. If that’s truly the case then Kansas City has to stay far away from Verdugo. At around $6 million per WAR, Verdugo will likely be worth between $24 and $36 million over the course of a four-year contract. Spotrac lists his market value at four years, $60 million. That well exceeds the $20-$40 million range.

Heading into a true contention window with financial flexibility is a great place to be. The Royals are there. They won’t be for long if they dole out bad contracts and overpay players like Verdugo. The market should ultimately decide whether the Royals are in or out, but Verdugo should be seen more as good depth at the bottom of a lineup — not a leadoff hitter and certainly not a slugger in the heart of the lineup.