When the Royals went out and signed Jordan Lyles last offseason, they brought him in to do one thing… eat innings. For a pitcher with a career 5.24 ERA, they knew they weren’t going to get someone who was going to be lights out, but for a team without pitching depth, they needed someone to go out there and give them a chance.
I don’t think they were expecting Lyles to be as bad as he was after guaranteeing him $17 million over two years, but to say his season was bad would be an understatement. Lyles went a career-worst 6 and 17 with a 6.28 ERA. It came to a point where it felt like every time he took the mound, you knew the Royals would lose. Now that wins and losses aren’t all completely Lyles’s fault, as there were times he threw well and the Royals didn’t win, but overall, it was tough to watch.
As we enter the 2024 season, the question becomes, can Lyles bounce back in the second year of his contract, and what will his role with the team be? The Royals signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha this offseason, giving them six options for the five-man rotation. Brady Singer, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha all seem like locks for the rotation, leaving just question marks around Jordan Lyles and Daniel Lynch IV.
There were some positive signs for Lyles in the underlying data as, according to Baseball Savant, he was in the 88th percentile in fastball extension, 82nd percentile in BB%, and 75th percentile in HardHit%. On top of that, he had an xERA (expected ERA) of 4.93. While not great, as it’s in the 22nd percentile, it is still much better than his surface level 6.28 ERA.
Despite those signs of positivity, Lyles still ranked in the 9th percentile in Whiff%, 9th percentile in K%, 44th percentile in Chase%, 12th percentile in fastball velo, and 20th percentile in Barrel%. It is easy to say that for $8.5 million, Lyles wasn’t fooling any big-league hitters out on the mound.
For a team that is signaling that they are, at the very least, trying to compete in the AL Central next year, it is hard to justify throwing Lyles out there every fifth day, hoping for a bounce back. Rumors have been swirling that they’ve been trying to trade him (unsure if that’s to salary dump him or get anything in return), but teams haven’t been biting, and who can blame them? It’s a lot to ask a team to take on $8.5 million with the hopes of getting his career best, which is basically a 4.15 ERA over 141 innings. The only reason the Royals would keep him in the rotation is to hope for that bounceback so they can move him at the trade deadline.
The second issue they run into, though, is if they throw Lyles out there every fifth day, you’re basically tossing Daniel Lynch IV into the bullpen. He suffered some injuries last year but has looked really good on his comeback trail this offseason in both the Arizona Fall League and Dominican Summer League. The Royals have been waiting for Lynch to break out as a key piece of the rotation, so it’s hard to justify making him take a back seat in the rotation for a guy like Lyles.
Another option they have is to run a six-man rotation out there. For a rotation full of injury history with guys like Lynch and Ragans, it could take some of the workload off of them as they try to work themselves up to pitching a full 162. You could even use Lyles in some kind of opener-type role, hoping that throwing in shorter spurts could help him find some success.
The last option is just hiding Lyles in the bullpen. That would basically be the Royals signaling they don’t see a bounce back and will eat the $8.5 million they spent on him. Hiding him in the bullpen doesn’t necessarily hurt them, as you always need long relievers to come in and eat innings. It’s not the ideal situation as it is the worst-case scenario for both the Royals and Lyles to the end of this contract, but it is also a situation that could help both parties.
Regardless of what the Royals decide to do with Lyles, it is definitely not the conversation you want to have around a guy who’s guaranteed $17 million for his entire contract. For most teams, it doesn’t seem like a lot, but for a small market team like the Royals, it is a lot harder to take on that burden. I’m sure they’d love to have that $8.5 million to spend elsewhere this offseason.
For both the Royals and Lyles himself, you have to hope he can bounce back. I imagine he wasn’t happy with how he performed last year and is probably sick of hearing it from the media and Royals fans alike. We won’t really have answers until Spring Training, but the best we can do is hope that they figure out a situation that helps the Royals win and also puts Lyles in a position to succeed.
