Royals GM JJ Picollo understands that the bullpen needs an upgrade in order to improve and keep the club in the playoff hunt in the deep summer months. Even though the Royals have been rumored and tied to position players such as Tommy Pham of the White Sox, most of the “trade buzz” involving the Royals has centered on relievers.
The Royals farm system has improved this season (or at least in the eyes of us as staff at “Farm to Fountains”). That said, the system still isn’t deep enough to absorb losing any of their top prospects. It would be wise for the Royals to be prudent with who to give up in any trade, especially for a reliever who may not have long-term control or value.
One solution to the Royals reliever woes that Picollo and the Royals are exploring is transitioning Kris Bubic to the Royals’ bullpen once he’s eligible to return from the 60-day IL.
The Royals rotation is set right now, leaving Bubic in a peculiar spot.
Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo could be pitching representatives for the Royals at the All-Star game. Michael Wacha has returned from the IL and has looked solid. Lastly, Brady Singer and Alec Marsh have taken significant steps forward on the mound this year, showing the work that coach Brian Sweeney and the Royals’ pitching development have accomplished with the pair this season.
Thus, there isn’t an opportunity for Bubic to break into the starting rotation.
However, could Bubic move to the bullpen and give the Royals a guy who could be utilized in different scenarios and leverage situations? Also, could Bubic’s stuff play better as a reliever, which would help the Royals and Bubic’s long-term outlook in Kansas City?
Let’s look at what Bubic is doing in Omaha right now and whether or not a spot in the bullpen would make sense for him and the Royals this season.
Bubic Looking Solid With Storm Chasers
The metrics are pretty encouraging when looking at what Bubic is doing statistically with the Storm Chasers.
In seven outings and 24.1 IP, Bubic is posting a 2.22 ERA and 2.62 FIP. He also has a 25.2% K% and a 16.5% K-BB%, demonstrating that his command has been sharp in his rehab in Omaha. That sometimes isn’t always the case with pitchers coming off Tommy John, as Jonathan Bowlan went through some growing pains last season in his first season off of Tommy John surgery.
Not only is Bubic striking out a decent amount of batters and limiting walks, but he is also generating whiffs and limiting hard contact in Triple-A this season. In the image below, look at how Bubic compares to other Royals reliever candidates on the Royals’ 40-man roster in many Statcast metrics this season in Omaha.
As Royals fans see above, Bubic has the lowest average exit velocity (EV), Hard Hit Percentage, and Barrel rate. He also has the lowest xwOBA of the seven Storm Chaser pitchers, which shows that he’s been legitimately good and not just lucky.
Bubic ranks fourth in this group in terms of whiff rate, behind John McMillon, Colin Selby, and Steven Cruz. That said, Bubic’s walk rate is much lower than those three, and Bubic has spent most of his time in Omaha as a starter this season.
Thus, it’s likely that his K% could increase as he gets more opportunities out of the bullpen for the Storm Chasers. That could make him look more impressive and worthy of a call-up to the Major League level compared to McMillon, Selby, and Cruz, especially since Bubic doesn’t have those control issues.
What Does Bubic’s Arsenal Look Like in Omaha?
Bubic broke into the Majors during the COVID-shortened 2020 season (there was no Minor League season). He made his MLB debut despite not having pitched above high-A ball. In his first few seasons, Bubic struggled to find consistent results with a three-pitch mix, including a four-seamer, a changeup, and a curveball.
In 2020, 2021, and 2022, his ERA was 4.32, 4.43, and 5.58, respectively. His lackluster ERA in 28 outings and 129 IP in 2022 was particularly concerning, though his 4.51 xFIP suggested that Bubic was better than his ERA suggested that season.
Chris Langin of Driveline Baseball suggested that adding a slider to his repertoire would help Bubic’s effectiveness against left-handed hitters and, thus, improve his overall performance on the mound.
Furthermore, Bubic’s PLV pitch arsenal data from 2022 suggested that another offering, especially of the breaking variety, could help improve his overall pitch mix in the long term.
It wasn’t as if Bubic’s pitch mix was terrible in 2022; it was just mediocre and predictable. That said, it seemed like manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred discouraged the usage of a slider during the 2022 season, even though Bubic utilized it in Spring Training.
Under Matt Quatraro and Sweeney, Bubic was allowed to utilize the slider in 2023, and more positive results followed. His strong early start to the 2023 season, particularly following a 6-inning, 9-strikeout performance against the Giants on April 9th, got the attention of the national baseball media.
Unfortunately, as Royals fans know, Bubic injured his arm at home at his next start against the Atlanta Braves, and season-ending surgery followed. The sudden end to his season was disappointing, but it showed Bubic’s potential with this new coaching staff and pitching development culture.
As highlighted in Preston’s Tweet above, Bubic is still working on his fastball velocity in Omaha. That said, he’s been pretty effective with the pitch, averaging a whiff rate of 25% despite the four-seamer only averaging 91.1 MPH. A positive aspect of Bubic’s four-seamer is his strong spin on the pitch, which averages a 2211 RPM. That helps give it the movement necessary to generate swings and misses.
In addition to his four-seamer, Bubic has added a cutter to his fastball arsenal this season in Omaha. His cutter has been a compelling pitch on a PLV end and an excellent complement to his typical four-seamer.
Both pitches share similar release extensions, but the four-seamer has more vertical break and is better commanded in the strike zone. The cutter is a much slower offering (7.1 MPH slower than the four-seamer), but it is above average on an arm-side break end, which makes it challenging for opposing hitters.
Based on those characteristics, it’s unsurprising that Bubic is succeeding in Omaha with his cutter, which his 5.48 PLV demonstrates on the pitch.
Bubic’s breaking offerings (his curveball and slider) have also demonstrated excellent pitch quality in Omaha, as evidenced by the PLV pitch characteristic charts below.
The slider has been more effective as a “chase” pitch to opposing hitters (primarily left-handed batters). The curve has been a better pitch for stealing strikes against opposing hitters (57.9% xZone%). Bubic hasn’t thrown his curveball (9.9% usage) or slider (3.6% usage) as much as his cutter (16.6% usage), but they are adequate to be utilized in critical spots to generate whiffs or weak contact.
How Does Bubic Fit in the Royals Bullpen?
As seen below, Bubic’s pitch arsenal looked much improved before his injury last season, especially on a PLV end.
So far, based on AAA pitch characteristic PLV data, Bubic is making the same kind of progress with his arsenal. He is throwing his curve and slider a lot less this season in Omaha, but adding the cutter has added a new positive element to his pitch mix.
The big question is how Bubic fits into this Royals bullpen as it is currently constructed.
While the bullpen certainly needs a boost, the Royals already have three lefties in it (Will Smith, Angel Zerpa, and Sam Long). Smith is probably safe in his spot due to his veteran status (even if his usage out of the bullpen has been a bit head-scratching), so the main question will be if Bubic would be an upgrade over Zerpa or Long.
Zerpa has a 3.41 ERA in 29 IP, while Long has a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 IP. Both have been trending in opposite directions recently. Zerpa is struggling a bit this month (11.12 ERA in June), and Long is coming off his best outing of the season, in which he got four big Guardians strikeouts in 1.2 IP on Thursday night.
Thus, I am not sure if Bubic is a candidate to immediately return to Kansas City when he comes off the IL. Granted, some roster move must be made (since he’s on the 60-Day IL). However, I believe that move may involve someone in Omaha (like Selby) rather than a pitcher in Kansas City.
Carlos Hernandez seems to be the shakiest reliever on the Royals roster from the right-handed side, but he’s the only reliever who can throw triple-digit heat. Furthermore, it sounds like Quatraro has a fraction of trust in Hernandez, as he has put him in some key spots this week with mixed results.
Thus, Zerpa and Long will be pitchers to watch since they would be most affected by a Bubic promotion. They both have intriguing PLV numbers that could hint at their outlooks for the remainder of 2024.
Zerpa’s ERA isn’t as good as Long’s. However, Zerpa’s overall PLV is 15 points higher, and he has two above-average pitches on a PLV end (sinker and slider) compared to Long’s one (slider). Furthermore, Long’s curve and splitter are inferior, while Zerpa has no pitches that touch the bottom 10th percentile.
Long has been an incredible story this year, and I think he has given himself at least a few more weeks in the Royals bullpen. The main issue with Long is that he’s out of Minor League options (unlike Zerpa, who still has one), so the Royals would have to DFA Long if they wanted to move up Bubic in his place. I don’t see that happening after Long’s tremendous outing on Thursday night.
That said, with Bubic continuing to work on his arsenal and effectiveness as a reliever in Omaha, if Long does start to struggle at all in July, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bubic make a push to join the Royals bullpen after the All-Star Break.
Unfortunately, Long would likely be the roster move to make, especially if he regresses to his career norms.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports