Cayden Wallace is the number two prospect in the Kansas City Royals farm system for a reason. The Arkansas native stayed in the state for college after a pandemic-shortened draft hurt his draft chances. Prior, he was the top high school recruit in the state. At the University of Arkansas, he spent two years showing his power ability with a healthy slash line of .289/.379/.528. Paired with a respectable strikeout percentage, he was well worth the second-round pick in 2022. 

Cayden Wallace is now a full season in and showing that same ability. Wallace played well enough in Quad Cities to earn a promotion and play 33 games for the AA team in Arkansas. His first full season showed promise of a solid defensive cornerstone, capable of 20-plus home runs. The production dipped a bit as he took the step up, but he managed to maintain a similar-sized gap between the average and his on-base percentage.

Interestingly, Wallace got off to a torrid start in A+ to start his first full season. He batted .306/.414/.542 in April before falling back to earth pretty soundly in the following month. Following the re-establishment of his numbers he filled in for the Naturals in spot starts before going up for good to end the year. A slow start at the higher level hurt his overall numbers but didn’t sway the outlook on his season. Looking at starting in AA this season, Wallace could quickly be on the doorstep of a big league roster.

What Wallace Brings For the Royals

Typically a trait that tends to be overvalued, a list of intangibles is something Wallace brings to the table. He has the build, he plays simply, and it appears that he puts himself into positions to succeed at the plate. While nothing jumps off his professional stat lines, Wallace also doesn’t seem to have many big holes either. His wOBA has consistently rested above his unweighted on-base numbers and while some numbers dip, others improve.

A drop in average and slugging with the jump to AA was disappointing however his strikeout percentage dropped from 22% to 16.4%. His wRC+ has moved down as he moves up the ranks but a small sample with the Naturals is the only time it’s been below average. Wallace tends to be resilient in one facet or another regardless of what he’s struggling with as he develops. Reminder, Wallace is younger than Bobby Witt Jr. and can develop more after only two years of college. 

Something that stood out in the highlights is how simple his swing looks. A quick search on Twitter (I will never call it X) shows you his ability to turn on inside pitches and drive. He does so without forcing himself to swing early or turn too hard on the pitch. The effortless ability to make contact on tough pitches seems to come entirely from the hips, catering to power as well. For a smaller frame, that power comes from the pull side but doesn’t require extra effort. It may be underwhelming but Wallace’s first 2023 home run swing stands out to me, resulting in extra bases in any stadium:

After looking at his swings and analyzing his stats over last season, it appears the drop in production can be attributed to a little bad luck. His BABIP rested below average at .265 in Arkansas last year and dropped about 40 points between 2022 and 2023. Prime Barry Bonds would see a dip in production with that kind of decline.

Aside from hitting, and contrary to FanGraphs ratings, Cayden Wallace looks like he can play a decent hot corner. MLB has him rated as a 55-grade fielder with a 65-grade arm (Fangraphs says 30/40). Either rating pans out to be a major-league third-baseman. However, the flexibility of Maikel Garcia allows them to shift guys around and find the best fit regardless. At the very least he can make the throws that matter from across the diamond. 

Are there concerns to be found with Wallace?

Surprisingly there isn’t much to fret about at the moment. It’s always easy to see a guy adjusting as he climbs a system and focus too hard on numbers fluctuating. The better tactic, by far, is to see which numbers stay consistent and determine whether they are good or bad. In this case, the only worrying number is his groundball rate in Quad Cities. At 46%, Wallace hit the ball on the ground a lot where a majority of his at-bats took place.

That number dropped significantly at AA where almost 9% of those groundballs turned into flyballs. Assuming the best, the hitting coaches in Springdale have already seen this and are ahead of the curve. It would explain why his hitting numbers dropped, as messing with the launch angle can lead to dry spells while the player adjusts. Further, his strikeout numbers dropped as he moved up, showing that contact was still being made. So is the consistency in his hit types a worrying number? Yes. But looking further it seems as though there are already steps in place to correct that in his approach. 

Cayden Wallace is the most well-rounded hitter for the upcoming season for NW Arkansas. Between above-average power potential and the ability to hit for a little average, he will most likely make another jump this year. A well-rounded player and the type of guy who seems to be a comfortable fit in the current Royals lineup.