In an era of baseball with more information on players than ever, looking outside the box score has never been more important. While typical stats such as batting average are still valuable in measuring a player’s performance, the advanced numbers tell a story regular stats can’t. Here are five Royals the advanced analytics project to do well this upcoming season.

Maikel Garcia

One of the more underwhelming players in a magical 2024 season, Garcia has all the makings of a guy poised to break out. Garcia ranked in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate, strikeout rate, chase rate, and squared-up rate. Those numbers suggest that a hitter should put up much better stats than Garcia did as the leadoff man a year ago. His batting average was only .231, which is on the lower end; however, his expected batting average was .260, which would put him in the 73rd percentile for all qualified hitters. On top of all the supporting evidence in the advanced metrics, Garcia dropped his strikeout rate from 22.6% in 2023 to 16.5% in 2024.

Through two seasons of play, Garcia has been around a league-average player for Kansas City. At just 24 years old I expect to see a vast improvement from the third baseman and the metrics align with that. Garcia will never be a power slugger that drives in 100 runs for Kansas City but he can be a productive hitter in a lineup that needs all the help it can get.

Jonathan India

The Royals’ newest bat in the lineup projects to be a difference maker. After winning NL Rookie of the Year with the Reds in 2021 many viewed India as a cornerstone in the franchise’s rebuild. Unfortunately for India, that rookie success has not been emulated in the past few years, leading to the Reds dealing him this offseason. While there may not have been all-star-level production in 2024, the advanced metrics suggest that could be a reality in 2025.

One of the major reasons analytics like India going forward is the plate discipline. A franchise like the Royals which values contact hitting and low strikeout rates is getting a player in India that ranked in the 98th percentile in chase rate and the 97th percentile in walk rate. While the batting average may have been a mundane .248, India’s expected batting average was .266 which is in the 80th percentile of all qualified hitters from a year ago. The data suggests India is due for a breakout that could even top his fantastic rookie campaign.

The only real concern with India is he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. If he continues to rank low in metrics such as average exit velocity and the hard-hit rate we could see India be more of a Whit Merrifield-type player, which all things considered wouldn’t be terrible.

Cole Ragans

Coming off his first all-star appearance, Ragans is positioned to be a serious Cy Young contender in 2025. Many fans around the world of baseball were curious to see what a full season of Cole Ragans would look like after his unbelievable end to 2023. While some chalked it up to a good stretch and small sample size, the Royals thought differently when they trotted him out as their opening-day starter in 2024. The verdict didn’t take long for fans to come to, Ragans was an ace in the making.

While advanced metrics aren’t necessary to argue Cole Ragans will be good this upcoming season, they show we might not have seen the best yet. The strikeout numbers are off the charts, placing in the 90th percentile for whiff rate, 88th in strikeout rate, and 95th percentile in pitching run value. These numbers are overly similar to Tigers ace Tarik Skubal who won the Cy Young award in 2024. Being a consistent pitcher takes top-tier stuff, and Ragans has all of it.

Lucas Erceg

Last year might have just been the start for Erceg. The Right-Handed Reliever came to the Royals via trade at the deadline last season and immediately took over the closer role that had been a question mark throughout the season. To say Erceg’s performance down the stretch was phenomenal last season might be an understatement. Why include him in a list of players like the ones in this column then? Because the advanced analytics suggest Erceg could be in for one of the best seasons a Royals reliever has ever had.

When I clicked on Erceg’s Baseball Savant page I had to do a double check to make sure I was reading his metrics correctly. Out of 12 metrics measured, Erceg ranked in the top third percentile in 11 of them. One of the more interesting pieces of data from Erceg is his 98th-percentile fastball velocity accompanied by his 97th percentile average exit velocity. Typically, the flame throwers in baseball strike out a lot of batters, but when guys make contact the ball gets hit hard. The ability to beat the top of the league in pitch velocity without giving up hard contact sets Erceg up to be one of the best closers in baseball.

Barring unforeseen setbacks I’m predicting Lucas Erceg finishes 2025 with an ERA under 2.00 and over 40 saves.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Admittedly this one feels obvious. Everyone knows how good Bobby Witt Jr. is by now after his historic 2024 season that saw him finish second in AL MVP voting. Out of 19 metrics measured by Baseball Savant, Bobby Witt Jr. finished above league average in 18 of them. The one metric Witt Jr. placed low in was his chase rate, however with the bat he possesses even the swings out of the strike zone become hits. Outside of that the analytics show that Bobby is as complete of a baseball player as there is in the major leagues.

In 2024 Witt Jr. placed in the 90th percentile or better in the following categories

• Batting Run-Value (99th percentile)
• Baserunning Run-Value (96th percentile)
• xwOBA (98th percentile)
• Expected Batting Average (99th percentile)
• Expected Slugging (98th percentile)
• Average Exit Velocity (94th percentile)
• Barrell % (92nd percentile)
• Fielding Outs Above Average (99th percentile)
• Sprint Speed (100th percentile)

If we weren’t living in a time with two of the greatest players the league has ever seen in Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, the consensus would be that Bobby Witt Jr. is the best player in the world. All the advanced analytics suggest 2025 will be another elite season for Witt Jr. in what could be the early years of a hall-of-fame career.