Gavin Cross has the distinction as the final first-round pick of the Dayton Moore era. While he has no control over this, it may leave a bad taste in some fans’ mouths. Nonetheless, there is no doubt that everyone is eager for him to succeed. Cross dazzled early in his debut season and earned a quick promotion to Low-A after just three rookie ball games. That success didn’t quite translate to his first full season and he struggled to make good contact in High-A for Quad Cities last season. He’ll come into 2024 trying to fine-tune his swing and find his way further up the system.
He showed in 2022 that he was capable of hitting for power in-game. Cross had eight home runs in 29 games, compiling a total of 17 extra-base hits. He was capable in the outfield and had enough speed to look like a guy who could steal 30 bags. These numbers looked similar in 2023 but did not reach the same heights as his overall offensive numbers dipped.
2023 Struggles for Cross headline the narrative entering 2024
The hope going into 2023 was that Gavin Cross would continue his success and find his way to Double-A by the end of the season. Unfortunately, this wasn’t the case as he finished with a slash line of .206/.300/383. I hadn’t looked into the issue until recently. I had assumed it was a young guy slumping as he moved up the system. Well… you know what they say about assuming.
As Cross entered the following season with the High-A club, one number specifically jumped out to me. His groundball and flyball numbers jumped drastically, both from 38.8% to 43.4% and 41.7% respectively. These came at the expense of his line drive rate which dropped from 22.4% to 14.9%. Looking at those numbers, the biggest takeaway is that he simply lost his feel for the barrel. With his promotion, the breaking stuff got nastier and the fastballs less straight. This would explain the dropoff in production without a massive spike in strikeout numbers (25.2% in 2022 followed by 27.8% in 2023.)
With barrel contact being the issue, there was also a 7% drop in his walk percentage between the two seasons. Again, with just a 2.6% increase in strikeouts, he’s swinging more but still making contact. That is a great improvement if a player is to use the minors to grow and understand their limitations. It appears that swinging at more pitches pushed him to miss underneath or on top of pitches. This is because pitchers were enabled to throw their stuff more often. Cross wasn’t forcing them to throw strikes in the heart of the zone to get strikes. Think of what makes a guy like Vinnie Pasquantino so dangerous: elite plate discipline that forces pitchers to find the zone to get him out. Gavin Cross essentially did the exact opposite of that in 2023.
What’s the fix heading into 2024?
Thankfully there isn’t much to try to fix here. There was a lot of concern surrounding Gavin Cross’ weak season last year, but he still did a lot of things right. His power numbers didn’t hurt too badly, with 12 home runs and 36 extra-base hits in 96 games. Slightly underwhelming but considering he struggled with solid contact, not much to complain about. He also still walked over 10% of the time even though the percentage dropped by seven points. (That’s right he was walking 17% of the time in 2022!) So the drop is most certainly part of the problem but not a poor part of his game.
With a more patient approach, he could still strive to get on base via hit more often. He will force pitchers to throw him more pitches in the process. If the domino effect is indeed lined up correctly, he will find more line drives and his average will rise again. With his build, he won’t lose much pull power with a decrease in fly ball rate. Liners will find their way over the wall and ideally, he’ll hit the ball on the ground less as well. It’s a simple formula, hunt the fastball and punish breaking pitches up in the zone.
With these numbers in mind and the workshopping year behind him, Cross looks to show off what he learned this year. I wouldn’t expect a massive bounce back but he will be better. He has yet to play any year with a wRC+ under 90 and that certainly won’t change in 2024. If he brings a revamped patience to the plate, the contact will consistently get better. A version of Gavin Cross with an OPS over 1.000 is still in there, as he didn’t seem to mess with his swing too much.
As I said, the fix seems that easy. Whether intentional or not, Cross gave himself a lot to work with this offseason. As a polished college prospect, he will work towards Triple-A this year. If he can’t break that barrier, it may be worth worrying more about his 2023 struggles. It’s a waste to worry about Gavin Cross coming from the old front office. He was a first-round talent for a reason and that potential is in there somewhere. He should start the season in Double-A and the staff will know how to get him back on the right path.