The Kansas City Royals offseason has been somewhat eventful thus far, characterized most by two trades with the Atlanta Braves for upside — but injured — pitchers Nick Anderson and Kyle Wright. Free agency is still mostly crawling along, which is typically normal this time of year. The only big name to sign this winter has been RHP Aaron Nola, who inked a seven-year deal with the Phillies to return to Philadelphia.
In most seasons, we see much more free agent action in early-to-mid December. Also, until the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes finds a winner, many teams will be waiting on other subsidiary moves. Trades also have a tendency to pick up as the calendar moves into December. The Winter Meetings take place the first week of the month, followed by a couple weeks of a usually active transaction wire heading into the quieter days around the holidays.
Without much current real news to speak of, here’s a look at three hypothetical trades that I’d love to see the Royals make this offseason:
Note: I have used the MLB Trade Values simulator for each trade, simply to show another frame of reference for these trades. It’s important to note that trade values won’t line up exactly, or even comparable for some. This is because the MLB Trade Values website should never be taken as the law of the land for MLB trades. It’s unrealistic at times and not a black-and-white representation of value.
Royals and blue jays swap major leaguers
The quest for pitching is the Royals biggest goal this offseason. At the same time, there are serious questions about what they will do in center field for the foreseeable future. Kyle Isbel — despite being just 26 years old and a former third round pick — hardly looks like the long term solution for Kansas City. His defense is outstanding but also carries all of his value on the field. Offensively, he’s been a disaster. For his career he’s been worth 75 wRC+, mostly thanks to limited power and a severely low walk rate.
The Blue Jays have looked often at outfielders on the open market thus far into the offseason, and Isbel would provide them with an upside option that’s still relatively cheap at the same time. The hitter friendly confines of The Rogers Centre should only help Isbel’s offensive output and worst case, he adds substantial defensive value to a team closer to contention.
Kikuchi enters the final year of his contract in 2024 and is slated to make $10 million. Lefty prospect Ricky Tiedemann was fantastic in this year’s Arizona Fall League and looks ready to make the jump to the Major Leagues. Kikuchi is fresh off his best season since leaving Japan back in 2019. Over 32 starts, he pitched to a 3.86 ERA over 167.2 IP. His strikeout and walk metrics looked strong, and he’d figure to only look better on the mound in a more pitcher friendly park.
Marlins find their shortstop of the future
It could be easily argued that the Royals most dispensable trade asset is SS/3B Maikel Garcia. The organization seems to be happy building around a strong left-side infield of Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr., but I’m not so sure that’s a strong long-term agenda. Garcia’s current value isn’t great at third base, mostly due to his lack of power. He’d be excellent as an every-day shortstop, but Kansas City, of course, has that spot filled with the Superstar, Witt.
The Marlins have a hole at shortstop after moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field prior to last season. Down on the farm, they have 25-year-old Jacob Amaya and not much else. Amaya struggled greatly last season with just an 89 wRC+ in 128 games at Triple-A. Garcia quickly cements the top of the Marlins order, forming an impressive 1-2-3 that includes Garcia, Luis Arraez, and Chisholm Jr.
In return, the Royals acquire high-upside pitching prospects. Thomas White was seen by some as the best prep arm in the entire 2023 draft class. Miami drafted him 35th overall last July but he’s yet to pitch in any notable sample of minor league action. With him, Karson Milbrandt returns home to Kansas City. Milbrandt was taken in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of Liberty High School. He struggled a ton with walks last season but has an impressive fastball and a full four-pitch mix to work with.
Boston bridges the gap to Kyle teel
It may be a minority opinion, but I’m not so sure that Freddy Fermin is the real deal. The 28-year-old had an impressive 2023 season, slashing .281/.321/.461 over 70 games for the Royals. He provided much needed relief behind the dish for Salvador Perez. At the same time, he was one of the more productive members of the offense. By the second half, however, much of that offensive production cooled. Over his last 98 plate appearances in 2023, Fermin had an OPS of just .686.
As the league caught on to Fermin, he didn’t quite adjust. Then in September, he had surgery to repair a broken finger, ending his season. Fermin is a very nice player and great guy to have around. He’s got club control, and there’s still some upside to love there. At the same time, he’s a bit of a luxury that the Royals don’t really need right now. The odds that Salvador Perez is traded are probably very low, meaning Fermin is at best going to be a part-time catcher. The Royals needs are so much more pressing everywhere else on the roster that it makes sense to trade Fermin at what is probably his peak value.
The Red Sox don’t have much strength at catcher until Kyle Teel works his way through the minor leagues. They do, however, have controllable starting pitching that the Royals could work with. Tanner Houck was drafted 24th overall by Boston in 2017 and has had a sound MLB career thus far. His career ERA is 3.86 over 252.0 innings. There are questions about durability, however, as 2023 was Houck’s first season as a full-time starter. Unrelated to those concerns, he suffered a devastating facial fracture last season that sidelined him for much of the year.
Fermin isn’t likely enough to return Houck all on his own, despite Boston’s pitching on the farm. Prospects Shane Drohan and Wikelman Gonzalez are getting closer to the big leagues. Drohan could potentially take Houck’s place in the rotation to start next season. If Kansas City wants to pry away a valuable pitcher such as Houck, they’d have to add a prospect like Cayden Wallace.
Wallace is a good prospect. He’s an all-around player with good defense, solid power, and a nice approach at the plate. Long-term, he could be the Royals third baseman of the future. However, the organization can fall back on other minor league options such as Nick Loftin and Trevor Werner. Boston’s minor league third baseman tree is rather bare. This deal is a great example of two teams who match up very nicely in what their trade needs are.
