The Opening Day roster for the Kansas City Royals has slowly started to come into focus over the last week of Spring Training games. The only questionable spots seem to be the final bench spots and the fifth starter position. The fifth starter role seems like it’ll come down to the wire between Alec Marsh, Jordan Lyles, and Daniel Lynch IV. On the bench, the two spots will likely be between Dairon Blanco or Drew Waters for the fourth outfield spot, and between Nick Pratto and Nelson Velázquez for the DH/depth role.

Then, news on Tuesday threw a wrench in the entire picture. Kansas City has made clear that incumbent second baseman, Michael Massey, is again their guy entering the 2024 season. He’s had a streaky spring thus far but was one of the better-hitting second basemen in baseball over last season’s stretch run. Despite the Royals’ assurances that he would be their Opening Day second baseman, things now look up in the air for Massey.

An injury for Massey may derail his Opening Day chances after all

On Tuesday, Royals Beat Reporter, Anne Rogers, reported injury news on Massey. According to Rogers, Massey was “a late scratch” from Tuesday’s lineup with lower back tightness. Back tightness could be nothing, and the team may just be erring on the side of caution. Manager Matt Quatraro said as much according to the quote provided by Rogers. The best case scenario would be a day-to-day situation that doesn’t impact Massey’s availability for Opening Day. With that said, what happens if he isn’t able to go?

The Royals have already prepared for this exact scenario, bringing in veterans Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier this offseason. Both can play second base, although both have had a pretty miserable spring thus far. The route that the Royals go depends entirely on the long-term outlook for Michael Massey. If we’re talking about a week or two, perhaps Kansas City rolls with Frazier and Hampson to fill second base and things continue as planned in early April when Massey returns. If the situation turns for the worse, the Royals will need a better plan than stopgap veterans. I’d argue, the Royals need a better plan regardless of how long Massey may miss.

Should Massey miss time with injury, the open spot should go to better long-term options

All of the thoughts here could end up being unnecessary, should Massey be just fine on Wednesday and ready to go. But we’re already this far in, so we may as well continue. The opening in playing time left by Massey’s absence could go to Hampson or Frazier, but should it? Absolutely not. Hampson should be as much on the roster bubble as anyone else in the organization after his abysmal spring training. The Royals only guaranteed him $2 million, and whether they believe in the sunk cost fallacy or not, that’s a small amount in the grand scheme of things.

Frazier, on the other hand, is pretty secure in his role as a veteran utility man. Kansas City guaranteed Frazier $4.5 million, making him all but guaranteed a place on the 26-man roster. With all of that context in mind, the decision to fill Massey’s playing time should come down to three players in particular: Nelson Velázquez, Nick Pratto, and Nick Loftin.

Well, what about Dairon Blanco, Garrett Hampson, and Drew Waters? Don’t they matter too?

They certainly do, and I expect only one of them to earn a spot on the 26-man roster. However, considering their ability to play center field (and the need for a backup center fielder on the big-league roster), the two roster battles shouldn’t be seen as the same.

Analyzing the 26-man roster without Michael Massey in the mix

By now, this all may be a tad hard to follow, so let’s lay it out more plainly. Again, I’ll add the caveat that all of this may be for naught and we’re talking about Massey without knowing the full extent of his injury timeline. Here’s how the 26-man roster currently stands:

Pitchers (13)

The Royals will carry 13 pitchers — likely five starters, a swingman, and 7 true relievers. The makeup isn’t all that important for this discussion, and they’ll certainly roster all 13 they’re allowed to, making this half of the 26-man roster easy enough to tally.

Outfield “Locks” (3)

The true “locks” in the outfield as it stands now are Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Renfroe. The team will roster at least one other for depth, but that’s where the final roster spots will be competitive.

Infield “Locks” (6)

I’ll bundle catchers in here with infielders, even though they’re usually considered separate. Freddy Fermin and Salvador Perez are making the 26-man roster. Bobby Witt Jr. has been a bit of a surprise after entering spring on the roster bubble (/s). Vinnie Pasquantino, Adam Frazier, and Maikel Garcia round out the sure things in the infield. That brings us to 22 of 26 players and a look at the “bubble.”

Backup CF (1) Drew Waters OR Dairon Blanco

“Bubble” (3)

With the locks and the backup center field competition now in place, we’re left with three open spots. Hampson could factor into the backup center field slot, due to his ability there defensively, but his spring has been so poor that the Royals seem more likely to stay with more established options there. Hampson may be a veteran of sorts, but Waters and Blanco have patrolled Kauffman to some degree already in their careers.

Grouping Hampson into this group, we’re left with three open spots to be filled between four players. Someone is going to be the odd man out by March 28, and another will be on the chopping block once Massey returns.

The upside trumps another “veteran presence” — or at least it should

Kansas City’s “theme” with offensive additions this offseason was the veteran presence. The front office aimed at surrounding their young talent with veterans who could anchor the lineup and provide stability. Those veterans turned out to be Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, and Garrett Hampson. Due to dollars owed, Renfroe and Frazier are locks for the roster. Hampson’s cheaper contract makes him more disposable. There’s also less need for a third veteran in the mix when you consider Salvador Perez the true veteran leader of the team.

For all of those reasons — alongside his terrible spring — the Massey injury should make the decision all that much easier for General Manager J.J. Picollo. The Royals already have their veterans in place. The remaining “bubble” spots on the roster should go to those with youth and the most upside. Garrett Hampson finishes last in both categories when compared to his counterparts.

The Massey injury opens the door for Nick Pratto, Nick Loftin, and Nelson Velázquez to all have a place on the Opening Day 26-man roster. It doesn’t mean they’ll all stay there for good. Once Massey returns, one of them will have to make the trip up I-29 to Omaha. That decision can be made at a later date, once the competition has continued into the regular season and we get a better picture of what each can do when the stats finally matter. Both Pratto and Loftin launched home runs on Tuesday night against the Giants. Velázquez had the night off, but Hampson finished 0/3 with an error. Should Massey miss any regular season time, it allows the Royals to give their best young talent a chance. All they have to do is decide to do so.

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