Even though Dayton Moore was still leading the Royals organization in 2022, JJ Picollo, then in his first year as the team’s GM, made his first imprint on the organization with a unique trade with the Atlanta Braves.

The Royals traded their Competitive Balance round pick (No. 35 at the time) to Atlanta for outfielder Drew Waters, infielder CJ Alexander, and pitcher Andrew Hoffmann. At the time, it was one of the most high-profile trades involving a Competitive Balance round pick (something teams couldn’t do until that season).

Waters was the Royals’ main prize in the deal. According to Baseball America, Waters was once a Top-100 prospect in baseball, ranking as high as No. 32 in 2021.

Unfortunately, a .240 average, .710 OPS, and 142 strikeouts in 459 plate appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett in 2021 dimmed his prospect star quite a bit. He seemed to be the odd outfielder in an Atlanta organization competing for a World Series title and already had Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Michael Harris II in the outfield.

At the time, the Royals were clearly in rebuilding mode after a disappointing 2022 season.

They went 65-97, and that disappointing performance prompted the firings of Moore and manager Mike Matheny and the promotion of Picollo to head of baseball operations by the season’s conclusion. Thus, the Waters deal seemed to make sense to experts around the league, especially since the Royals needed young players who could produce but still have years of team control.

Here’s what Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors said of the deal at the time:

From the Royals’ vantage point, the long-term outfield picture is far less certain, so there’s good reason to take a chance on getting Waters back on track. Kansas City has been working to put a winning product on the field for the past couple seasons, and while the results haven’t been there yet, Waters provides more immediate potential to help the team than whomever would have been tabbed with that No. 35 overall pick. Waters posted a huge .319/.366/.481 batting line in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting back in 2019, when he was one of the youngest players in the league. Baseball America and MLB.com both ranked him within the sport’s top 40 overall prospects in consecutive offseasons.

“Royals Acquire Drew Waters From Braves For Draft Pick” by Steve Adams; MLB Trade Rumors

The early returns from Waters seemed optimistic on the Royals’ end, especially in 2022.

In 32 games and 109 plate appearances with the Royals, Waters had a slash line of .240/.324/.479, hit five home runs, collected 18 RBI and produced a wRC+ of 124.

Waters’ power stuck out the most in his MLB debut. He not only posted a .240 ISO and a 12.3% barrel rate but also hit bombs with an exit velocity of 110.6 MPH, like this one on September 22nd against Minnesota’s Josh Winder.

There were red flags in Waters’ 2022 campaign. His K% was high at 36.7%, and his contact rate of 71.4% wasn’t precisely sterling either. Furthermore, his xwOBA was .296, nearly 51 points lower than his actual wOBA that season.

Nonetheless, it was a solid debut for Waters in Kansas City, and many Royals fans and outlets seemed to be optimistic about Waters’ outlook with the Royals. In early August of 2022, Jordan Foote of “Inside the Royals,” a former SI Fansided Royals blog, said this about Waters in an article about Waters’ hot start in Kansas City.

Of course, Waters is likely due to regress to the mean at some point. His .429 BABIP seems unsustainable, although he’s posted similar figures in stints during the 2017 and 2019 seasons during stops at Rookie ball and Triple-A. With that said, it is entirely possible that the Royals’ hitting development — led by Drew Saylor and company — is making a positive impact on him. An increase in walks and power will lead to greater overall success at the plate, and Waters has been nothing short of extraordinary since coming over in the trade.

“The Early Returns on the Drew Waters Experiment Are Amazing” by Jordan Foote; Inside the Royals

Unfortunately, Waters’ outlook with the Royals has taken a 180-degree turn two years later.

As of July 12th, the 25-year-old switch-hitting outfielder has only played in three games and accumulated eight plate appearances at the Major League level in 2024. Despite posting solid numbers in Omaha (.360 wOBA; 113 wRC+), Waters continues languishing in Triple-A, with MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, and Hunter Renfroe firmly entrenched in Kansas City as the starting outfielders.

With the opportunities for playing time looking slim for Waters, it seems likely that the end of the road for Waters with the Royals is coming near. That begs us, as Royals fans, to ask the questions:

How did this happen? And why is letting go of Waters more complicated than it needs to be?

Waters’ Disappointing 2023 and Struggling Plate Approach

Waters was expected to compete for a starting outfield position on Opening Day, but an oblique injury in February put him behind by six weeks. As a result, Waters didn’t make his MLB debut until May 26th.

After posting a 0.5 fWAR in 32 games in 2022, Waters only posted a 0.8 fWAR in 98 games in 2023. Even though the fWAR only went up slightly, Waters showed massive improvements on the defensive end in his first entire MLB season.

He improved his Def from -2.3 runs in 2022 to 2.9 runs in 2023. He also produced a Statcast fielding runs value of +6 in the outfield in 2023, the fourth-best mark of any Royals fielder with 100 or more innings. The only ones he ranked behind last season in this category were Maikel Garcia (+11), Bobby Witt, Jr. (+10), and Kyle Isbel (+10).

Even though Waters’ range lagged behind Isbel’s, Waters showcased a better arm than Isbel, which seemed to show that Waters could easily play all three outfield positions well defensively.

An example of Waters showcasing his above-average arm strength was seen in a mid-August game on the road at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Waters made a heck of a throw from right field to gun down Nico Hoerner at second base to prevent what should’ve been an easy double.

While the defense was a plus of Waters’ profile, the hitting took a significant tumble in 2023.

In 337 plate appearances, Waters saw his wOBA and wRC+ regress to .296 and 82, respectively. His power from 2022 also declined heavily, as he only hit eight home runs and saw his ISO drop to .149, nearly 100 points lower than his mark in 2022. To make matters worse, his walk rate declined three percent, and his K% remained high at 31.8%. As a result, his BB/K ratio decreased from 0.30 in 2022 to 0.25 in 2023, and his contact rate also fell to 70.2%, a 1.2% regression from 2022.

At times, Waters seemed to be turning a corner, especially on a power end. When he hit home runs, like this splash shot in mid-July against the Rays at Kauffman, they often were of the “no doubt” variety that would have Royals fans dreaming about his long-term potential.

That said, based on his Power+ PLV rolling chart data from 2023, Waters wasn’t consistent enough with his power, and he showed signs of sharp decline as he accumulated more at-bats.

Waters was a bit of an enigma in many ways on the hitting end in 2023, which often led to polarizing debates about Waters’ role on this Royals team in 2024 and beyond.

Looking at his Decision Value+ and Contact Ability+ PLV charts, it seemed like Waters was doing a better job of making better swing and take decisions as the year progressed. His contact also improved as well toward the end of the 2023 campaign.

On the flip side, despite growth in decision-making and contact ability, he often hit some serious lows in both categories in 2023. As Royals fans can see above, there were times in his Decision Value+ and Contact Ability+ charts when he hovered around or below the 10th percentile. Those lackluster numbers are hard to justify for a Major League-level hitter, regardless of his tools or potential.

Furthermore, the hitter performance rolling chart data, which encompasses as many aspects of a hitter’s profile as possible, looked quite underwhelming for the year, which deflated many who had higher hopes for Waters before 2023.

His Hitter Performance+ season average was just about 90, which ranks in the 25th percentile of the league for hitters. His xwOBA rolling chart via Stacast also demonstrated a similar trend for Waters in 2023.

Seeing chart data like this from 2023 made Waters so frustrating on a hitting end.

He certainly showcased some tremendous upside and highs at times in 2023. Sometimes, he looked like a player who could be a long-term option in center or right field with his multi-tool capability. Sure, he wouldn’t be a .300 hitter or hit 20+ home runs. However, he looked like he could hit 15 HRs, steal 15 bases, and at least be a .750-.775 OPS hitter. That hitting profile would be a massive value with his defensive skill set.

And yet, Waters struggled with consistency in his decision-making at the plate. He especially struggled with pitches thrown in the “Shadow” zone, just slightly outside the normal strike zone.

On pitches thrown in the Heart, Chase, and Waste zones, Waters produced a run value of +10. In the Shadow zone? That run value was -19, as seen in the graphic below.

Waters produced a Swing Runs value of -24 runs to a Take Runs value of +16. That resulted in an overall run value of -8, which tied him for 14th with Matt Duffy and Isbel a season ago.

Waters is still relatively young (he turned 25 on December 30th). However, the struggles in the Shadow zone and the numerous red flags in his hitting profile overall in 2023 were primary reasons why the Royals went to get veteran outfield help in Renfroe, Garrett Hampson, and Adam Frazier this offseason.

Waters’ Complicated Situation in 2024

In 66 games and 276 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers this season, Waters is producing a slash line of .268/.355/.477 and 113 wRC+. He scored 52 runs, collected 40 RBI, stole 11 bases, and hit nine home runs, his latest coming on Wednesday against the Toledo Mud Hens, the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate.

On the other hand, the red flags from 2023 with the Royals continue to persist in Omaha in 2024.

Waters’ K% is still high at 27.9%. Even though his BB% is decent at 10.9%, it is outweighed by his 0.39 BB/K ratio, which is low for a hitter in his fifth stint in Triple-A since 2019.

I organized a data set including eight Omaha hitters who are either on the Royals’ 40-man roster or could be reasonable options to be added to the 40-man this season in the right situation. Waters has the highest whiff% of the group, and his xwOBA ranks 5th in this group.

Waters has the tools to be successful. And yet, despite being a “veteran” of Triple-A, he still can’t separate himself from other Omaha hitters who may be “Four-A” players at the end of the day. That is not a good sign for Waters, as he may be christened with that label soon by most Royals fans if he hasn’t already.

Preston Farr of “Farm to Fountains” has specifically called out Waters’ inability to change his plate approach “processes” at the plate in Omaha. According to Farr, that’s a big reason why he hasn’t made much progress in the Royals organization in 2024 (especially compared to Gentry, who’s had his struggles in Omaha).

On one end, I am still rooting for Waters personally. It’s been a tough year, and it’s evident that going from a guy featured at the “Royals Rally” in February to only playing three games with the Royals is weighing on his confidence. Furthermore, it’s also tough to see other players from other organizations mentioned as possible “solutions” to the Royals’ outfield struggles when Waters hasn’t been given much chance to prove himself in 2024.

After all, how many possible trade candidates could make plays in the outfield like this (and with the game on the line)?

And yet, I understand why Picollo and the Royals have avoided using Waters this year.

The Royals are 51-43 and one game out of the Wild Card spot behind the Red Sox with a crucial three-game set in Boston starting tonight. Kansas City needs proven and sure things to help them capture a Wild Card spot and earn their first appearance in the postseason since 2015.

Ultimately, Waters doesn’t fit that bill based on his track record over the past two years. At least Picollo has treated fringe-MLB players in Omaha the same way, such as Pratto and Alexander.

This isn’t an “evaluation season” like in 2023. Players like Waters, Pratto, and Alexander have less room for error at the MLB level.

Thus, it seems like Waters’ time in the Royals organization may be coming to a close sooner rather than later. While his trade value isn’t all that high, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals throw him in some trade by the August deadline just to add more value to a package.

Waters being traded at this point isn’t capital for the Royals to get something significant in return.

Instead, it’s probably more of a way to give him a fresh start in another organization, likely a rebuilding one.

Photo Credit: AP Photo-Charlie Riedel