“Reign the Zone” began appearing on shirts as pitchers reported to the Royals 2024 Spring Camp. As reported by Anne Rogers, this signaled an evolution in philosophy from last year’s slogan “Raid the Zone” which emphasized first pitch strikes. Mason Barnett lived and breathed this mentality in 2023 amidst concerns about control in his first full season. Drafted by the old front office, there wasn’t a consensus on his ability to be a starter. He did just that in 2023 and managed to rack up the most strikeouts in the organization in the process.
Filling the Zone
“Reign the Zone” concerns itself with moving the idea from simply throwing strikes to filling the zone with your best pitches. The concept is that moving towards this notion will lead to more strikeouts and weak contact alike. This is a major shift in the Royals organization that previously worried more about missing bats by any means necessary. The signings of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo highlight this shift with walk rates in 2023 of 7.8% and 6% respectively.
Mason Barnett did have some walk issues in 2023. An 11.2% walk rate in High-A was a little concerning but a steep drop off to 8.8% after his promotion to AA makes it significantly less so. Furthermore, his 10.75 K/9 proves he can miss bats when he is in the zone. After finding strikes enough to gain the approval of the new staff and earn a Spring Training invite, he looks to adapt alongside the message being debuted there. Barnett has a slider that Fangraphs projects at a 60-grade ceiling and a healthy pitch mix. It is reasonable to expect the AA staff will work with him to utilize these tools to advance up the ranks further this season.
What Can He Throw?
As mentioned, Mason Barnett’s best pitch is his slider, currently a 55 on the 80-grade scale. While the slider has the most growth potential, his fastball lays a great foundation for the rest of his arsenal. It has great velocity, touching 98, and only falls flat in the aspect that it is… well… flat. The pipeline mentions two other pitches specifically, a changeup and curveball. Neither of these gives much reason to be excited but helps generate whiffs when battling lefties It is worth noting that there is room for the development of these pitches as he enters his second full season with the organization.
This season will open up a lot of discussion about Barnett’s ceiling. The invite to Spring Training was warranted by his performance last season alone but may have had more merit. With the rolling out of a new slogan, the team looks to groom Barnett as the next starter to make it to the big leagues. Being with the big league staff and surrounded by pitchers at the top level only serves to help develop the right mindset in Mason Barnett. That mindset will hopefully translate to the maturation of these pitches and most importantly how he uses them.
2024 Projection
Projecting a second-year starter can be difficult. Doing so for a young guy can be even more difficult. Barnett looks to improve this season furthering the development of his attack alongside the development of the Royals’ attack mindset. He certainly has the mix to keep hitters guessing, he’s put in the work to throw strikes, and the organization values him as one of their best young arms. This projection will certainly be a bit more friendly than one developed by a computer with actual math. Why not be optimistic though, huh?
Mason Barnett finished 2023 with 137 strikeouts and 114.2 innings. If the development team is serious about moving him up the ranks, he will get more innings this season. This will lead to more strikeouts if he maintains his high strikeout numbers of course. I could see that number jumping as much as 25-30 with his innings jumping to 130-plus. A 150-strikeout season would certainly widen some eyes and warrant a promotion during the season. This will mirror the message being brought into the clubhouse by Brian Sweeney, so we can hope for a decrease in the walk rate as well. This is never going to be Barnett’s strong point but we’ll look for a percentage-point drop here. Falling below 8% would enhance his potential significantly, allowing his stuff to thrive in the zone.
The downside of throwing into the zone more often is that more hittable pitches are inherently going to be thrown. Barnett had an incredible .208 opponent batting average in 2023 and I would expect that to move up a little. This will also affect his ERA negatively with more guys getting on base via hit. Don’t expect these numbers to blossom into something drastically different than last season, but a healthy increase may occur unless he breaks out big time.
The projected line: 135 IP, 3.63 ERA, 154 K, 50 BB, .247 Opp. BA
Barnett’s Timeline
Let’s put this into perspective before we walk away with these expectations. The Royals spent on two starting pitchers this season and still have Jordan Lyles on the books. They also have Daniel Lynch IV and Kris Bubic looking to come back from injury this year and compete for the fifth spot in the rotation. Barnett is a year away even if he looks fantastic in 2024. Realistically a second-half promotion in 2025 is his timeline for a big league debut.
This is dependent on other factors, of course, for example, the impending player option after Michael Wacha’s first year as a Royal. Bubic and Lynch IV could both struggle to revive the success they saw pre-injury. Jordan Lyles will be post-contract by the end of 2024 and will be a trade candidate this season if his numbers improve. Even if a spot opens up in 2024 due to trade or injury it’s borderline impossible for Barnett to be ready that early.
I love the idea of him filling a spot left by Wacha in the future. It won’t be a direct transition and he will not immediately produce, but a solid second or third rotational piece is his ceiling. Slotting in somewhere alongside Cole Ragans and Brady Singer could produce a very fun trio in Kansas City. I envision a very similar output to Wacha at his ceiling, and perhaps a very similar look on the mound (just about 6 inches shorter.)
